pcbjr Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Models starting to agree that there will be potential for another home grown storm off the SE coast in a week or so.... Hey - since PM isn't working, mind throwing up a pic or link or two? Thanks! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Hey - since PM isn't working, mind throwing up a pic or link or two? Thanks! Phil Two areas to watch...Bay of Campeche looks more favorable to me will likely see a landfall albeit weak with little time given current solutions. Weak low off FL drifts north then deepens to a Tropical Storm between Myrtle and the OBX...which by then the air will be sinking/dry for FL/GA/SC/NC. Maine/Canada may need to watch this one post-tropical given current solution. All of this is sure to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Models starting to agree that there will be potential for another home grown storm off the SE coast in a week or so....Yep. Euro showing it now. Looks very similar to the 00z CMC with it heading towards SE coast at the end of the runs. GFS is sending it NE out to sea. Models have been pretty good this year so far sniffing out development 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Yep. Euro showing it now. Looks very similar to the 00z CMC with it heading towards SE coast at the end of the runs. GFS is sending it NE out to sea. Models have been pretty good this year so far sniffing out development 7-8 days out. Still got the system but its kinda messy which most of those setups are, focusing on the location and track in this range is silly but the general idea of another tropical threat off the SE coast is there for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Technical Implementation Notice 16-18 National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC 1125 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: Timothy McClung Portfolio Manager NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration Subject: Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) Model Changes: Effective July 12, 2016 Effective on or about Tuesday, July 12, 2016, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the HWRF Princeton Ocean Model (POM) coupled system. The scientific and technical enhancements include the following: -Upgrade dynamic core from WRF3.6a to WRF3.7.1a (with bug fixes) and reduce time step (dt=30 s vs. 38 4/7 s) for improved track and intensity forecasts in all global basins, especially for Atlantic and Eastern-Pacific(EPAC) -Increase nested domain size, d02 from (12 degrees x12 degrees) to (25 degrees x 25 degrees), and d03 from (6.5 degrees x7.0 degrees) to (8.3 degrees x8.3 degrees) and upgrade to new scale- aware SAS convection scheme for all domains. This change allows the new system to better handle large storms and provide improved storm structure forecasts with detailed smaller scale storm features -Upgrade GSI, assimilating more satellite observation data in GSI (CrIS, SSMI/S, METOP-B changes) and turn on Data Assimilation (DA) for all storms in East Pacific Basin. The upgraded DA system provides well-balanced initial conditions, eliminating initial shocks (spin up and spin down)noted in previous version -Physics upgrades include: a) implementation of new GFS PBL (2015 version) updated momentum and enthalpy exchange coefficients(Cd/Ch) c) improved vertical wind profile in the surface and boundary layer. These upgrades provide more realistic vertical wind profiles compared to the observations -Use Real Time Ocean Forecast System (ROTFS) data to initialize POM model for EPAC storms to have more realistic oceanic Initial Conditions (IC) and improved Rapid Intensification (RI) forecasts this coming season -Extend Ocean coupling for all Northern Hemisphere basins including Central North Pacific (CPAC), Western North pacific (WPAC) and North Indian Ocean (NIO) for enhanced tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast skill; -Add one-way coupling to wave model (Hurricane Wave Model) for North Atlantic and East Pacific storms, which would allow us to replace Hurricane Wave model in FY17 The 2016 HWRF model configuration has been extensively tested individually and with a combination of all the upgrades listed above for a 3-year period (2013-2015). The results showed further improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in all global oceanic basins compared to the current operational HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Interesting disturbance/subtropical/whatever mess on the euro could impact north-east NC short term watch this come from GL transfer then books it north-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Two areas to watch...Bay of Campeche looks more favorable to me will likely see a landfall albeit weak with little time given current solutions. Weak low off FL drifts north then deepens to a Tropical Storm between Myrtle and the OBX...which by then the air will be sinking/dry for FL/GA/SC/NC. Maine/Canada may need to watch this one post-tropical given current solution. All of this is sure to change. 8 days later and finally... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 94L up to 50% with recon scheduled for Father's Day. Was considering a chase to Mexico but Colin has left me broke financially and emotionally. Next name on the list is Danielle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 NHC 8pm Update * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 NHC 8pm Update * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Looks like it's organizing fairly quickly. Shear looks to keep in it check though. That's really the only limiting factor and it's 48 hours over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Far out but GFS has been doing good in the long range this season...maybe some fourth of July tracking will be in store. I'd much rather see that in January with the 540 into Cuba ... But dream on, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Based on what recon has, looks like we may have Tropical Storm Danielle at the next advisory or TD4 at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 10-1 it stays off the SE coast, once it comes out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Based on what recon has, looks like we may have Tropical Storm Danielle at the next advisory or TD4 at the very least. If given a name overnight as forecast this will go down in the history books. Off to a fast start. Also need to point out all four storms will have made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 You should chase this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 If given a name overnight as forecast this will go down in the history books. Off to a fast start. Also need to point out all four storms will have made landfall. Where did Alex, the first storm of the season, make landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 If given a name overnight as forecast this will go down in the history books. Off to a fast start. Also need to point out all four storms will have made landfall. One, two, three, wilkesbro!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Where did Alex, the first storm of the season, make landfall? Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Where did Alex, the first storm of the season, make landfall? Terceira and they had hurricane warnings out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Will be a hard chase with hotels being booked at Myrtle fourth of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 May need a thread if this keeps showing up all this week...major fourth of July South-East trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Hats off to the GFS if it nails this 2weeks out! Amazing how the models are doing so far in advance this season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 4th of July weekend has looked interesting on the GFS the past 3 runs with a coastal low/storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 May need a thread if this keeps showing up all this week...major fourth of July South-East trouble. No new thread until a depression forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yep it's WAY too early for any threads. Two weeks is a long time in weather. Hopefully it'll only be a tropical storm though and not cause major problems anywhere, but break the drought IF it forms at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yep it's WAY too early for any threads. Two weeks is a long time in weather. Hopefully it'll only be a tropical storm though and not cause major problems anywhere, but break the drought IF it forms at all. No drought here where the 12z 300 hour "forecasts" it to cross FL .... EDIT - 18z into fantasy land is way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Hats off to the GFS if it nails this 2weeks out! Amazing how the models are doing so far in advance this season!! are you being serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 6z GFS seems to have lost the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 6z GFS seems to have lost the system. For the east coast, yes. It's still there, just... In the bay of Campeche: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 6z GFS seems to have lost the system. Damn. Now it's too late to make a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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