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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


Solak

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  On 6/10/2016 at 8:43 PM, downeastnc said:

Models starting to agree that there will be potential for another home grown storm off the SE coast in a week or so....

 

 

Hey - since PM isn't working, mind throwing up a pic or link or two?

 

Thanks!

 

Phil

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  On 6/10/2016 at 10:50 PM, pcbjr said:

Hey - since PM isn't working, mind throwing up a pic or link or two?

 

Thanks!

 

Phil

 

Two areas to watch...Bay of Campeche looks more favorable to me will likely see a landfall albeit weak with little time given current solutions. Weak low off FL drifts north then deepens to a Tropical Storm between Myrtle and the OBX...which by then the air will be sinking/dry for FL/GA/SC/NC. Maine/Canada may need to watch this one post-tropical given current solution. All of this is sure to change.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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  On 6/10/2016 at 8:43 PM, downeastnc said:

Models starting to agree that there will be potential for another home grown storm off the SE coast in a week or so....

Yep. Euro showing it now. Looks very similar to the 00z CMC with it heading towards SE coast at the end of the runs. GFS is sending it NE out to sea. Models have been pretty good this year so far sniffing out development 7-8 days out.
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  On 6/11/2016 at 7:26 AM, metalicwx366 said:

Yep. Euro showing it now. Looks very similar to the 00z CMC with it heading towards SE coast at the end of the runs. GFS is sending it NE out to sea. Models have been pretty good this year so far sniffing out development 7-8 days out.

 

Still got the system but its kinda messy which most of those setups are, focusing on the location and track in this range is silly but the general idea of another tropical threat off the SE coast is there for next week. 

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Technical Implementation Notice 16-18

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

1125 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016

 

To:       Subscribers: 

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Timothy McClung

          Portfolio Manager

          NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

 

Subject:  Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast

          (HWRF) Model Changes: Effective July 12, 2016

 

Effective on or about Tuesday, July 12, 2016, beginning with the

1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers

for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the

HWRF Princeton Ocean Model (POM) coupled system.

 

The scientific and technical enhancements include the following:

 

-Upgrade dynamic core from WRF3.6a to WRF3.7.1a (with bug fixes)

and reduce time step (dt=30 s vs. 38 4/7 s) for improved track

and intensity forecasts in all global basins, especially for

Atlantic and Eastern-Pacific(EPAC)

-Increase nested domain size, d02 from (12 degrees x12 degrees)

to (25 degrees x 25 degrees), and d03 from (6.5 degrees x7.0

degrees) to (8.3 degrees x8.3 degrees) and upgrade to new scale-

aware SAS convection scheme for all domains. This change allows

the new system to better handle large storms and provide

improved storm structure forecasts with detailed smaller scale

storm features

 

 -Upgrade GSI, assimilating more satellite observation data in

GSI (CrIS, SSMI/S, METOP-B changes) and turn on Data

Assimilation (DA) for all storms in East Pacific Basin. The

upgraded DA system provides well-balanced initial conditions,

eliminating initial shocks (spin up and spin down)noted in

previous version

-Physics upgrades include:

 a) implementation of new GFS PBL (2015 version)

  updated momentum and enthalpy exchange coefficients(Cd/Ch)

 c) improved vertical wind profile in the surface and boundary

    layer. These upgrades provide more realistic vertical wind

    profiles compared to the observations

-Use Real Time Ocean Forecast System (ROTFS) data to initialize

POM model for EPAC storms to have more realistic oceanic Initial

Conditions (IC) and improved Rapid Intensification (RI)

forecasts this coming season

-Extend Ocean coupling for all Northern Hemisphere basins

including Central North Pacific (CPAC), Western North pacific

(WPAC) and North Indian Ocean (NIO) for enhanced tropical

cyclone track and intensity forecast skill;

-Add one-way coupling to wave model (Hurricane Wave Model) for

North Atlantic and East Pacific storms, which would allow us to

replace Hurricane Wave model in FY17

 

The 2016 HWRF model configuration has been extensively tested

individually and with a combination of all the upgrades listed

above for a 3-year period (2013-2015). The results showed

further improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity

forecasts in all global oceanic basins compared to the current

operational HWRF. 

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  On 6/10/2016 at 11:56 PM, NWNC2015 said:

Two areas to watch...Bay of Campeche looks more favorable to me will likely see a landfall albeit weak with little time given current solutions. Weak low off FL drifts north then deepens to a Tropical Storm between Myrtle and the OBX...which by then the air will be sinking/dry for FL/GA/SC/NC. Maine/Canada may need to watch this one post-tropical given current solution. All of this is sure to change.

 

8 days later and finally...

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing

cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern

Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the

northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could

form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but

only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and

marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast

to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland

early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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  On 6/19/2016 at 12:11 AM, NWNC2015 said:

NHC 8pm Update

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Looks like it's organizing fairly quickly. Shear looks to keep in it check though. That's really the only limiting factor and it's 48 hours over water.
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  On 6/19/2016 at 2:00 AM, NWNC2015 said:

Far out but GFS has been doing good in the long range this season...maybe some fourth of July tracking will be in store.  :raining:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_50.png

 

 

I'd much rather see that in January with the 540 into Cuba ...

 

But dream on, Phil

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  On 6/19/2016 at 8:13 PM, metalicwx366 said:

Based on what recon has, looks like we may have Tropical Storm Danielle at the next advisory or TD4 at the very least.

 

If given a name overnight as forecast this will go down in the history books. Off to a fast start. Also need to point out all four storms will have made landfall.

 

205659W5_NL_sm.gif

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  On 6/19/2016 at 10:07 PM, NWNC2015 said:

If given a name overnight as forecast this will go down in the history books. Off to a fast start. Also need to point out all four storms will have made landfall.

 

 

Where did Alex, the first storm of the season, make landfall?

CYsFCnUWwAAu6Cq.png

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  On 6/20/2016 at 8:26 PM, jshetley said:

Yep it's WAY too early for any threads. Two weeks is a long time in weather. Hopefully it'll only be a tropical storm though and not cause major problems anywhere, but break the drought IF it forms at all.

 No drought here where the 12z 300 hour "forecasts" it to cross FL ....

 

 

EDIT - 18z into fantasy land is way west

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