NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 0z EURO scariest setup and strongest it has shown thus far... hour120 Tropical Wave going through the islands entering the southern Caribbean hour144 tropical depression forming offshore South America developing into tropical storm hour192 deepening TS south-west Caribbean, north movement starts to avoid Central America hour240 end of run....RI underway, down to 974mb before reaching the warmer waters, direct aim through the Yucatan channel assumed based on movement/steering, natural disaster likely given no escape path and atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 NHC bumps ominous tropical wave up to 30%...it would be a scientific fail if it did not develop with such strong agreement UKMET/EURO/GFS/others. Invest designation coming later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Good lord 6z GFS barrels through the Yucatan Channel....avoids all land unlike 0z....United Sates sees a natural disaster. South-East gets hit hard. All of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 I thought the 540 line was about to come into play there for a minute. It's in the 30's from Arkansas to Indiana.....but as NC is getting crushed cold abates into Canada. Low to mid 40s in western NC for start of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Don't think we will see any worse track solution than that. 953mb and that's not full resolution. Strong hit for Florida and inland for Georgia. Eye of the storm goes east of Atlanta, GA...but quickly tries to run the Apps of north-east GA/upstate SC....blasts through all of western NC....into West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 No time to unwind? 982mb that far inland. Hunker down east GA, upstate SC/western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 8am NHC bumps to code orange 50% for pouch 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonywx/status/779836566088912896/video/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Code red 70% for formation and recon scheduled for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: Code red 70% for formation and recon scheduled for Tuesday. You don't have clearance to post that. Hit the bricks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Seriously, breaking down a 384 hr model run, good lord. Go outside and get some fresh air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours agoChicago, IL Heat Potential in Caribbean through the roof Untouched by major hurricanes past several years Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 15h15 hours ago (*not* a forecast) There is historical precedent for TCs entering Caribbean at low latitude & becoming major hurricanes during 9/20-10/10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 'Heat potential untouched by major hurricanes past several years' is a dumb concept. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 0z gfs not backing down, a doom run but a few changes - now enough cold enough for snow upstate New York into Maine - op catching up to previous ensemble tracks up/off the east coast for New England, after center passes around Charlotte, NC - stronger in Gulf of Mexico, 952mb (not hi res, likely stronger Cat5) - true panhandle of Florida hit now, aka more west, which aims the heaviest rains into the North Carolina mountains - it gets cold post hurricane, not the usual warm humid sticky, 30s for the NC mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 uh oh, Opal '95 reprise baby... we're all gonna die.... hey wait, that fcking winter was awesome, nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 full res gfs is sub 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 If this does end up happening, when is the time frame ? It does sound a little reminiscent of opal which hit the fl panhandle in Oct 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: If this does end up happening, when is the time frame ? It does sound a little reminiscent of opal which hit the fl panhandle in Oct 95. There are timing differences so in general not this week but next. Maybe around October 4th if it goes more climo and hits south Florida. (FIM model goes up the east coast ,sub 940mb in Maine even.) Around October 7th for inland S/E if it goes further west like the GFS into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I wish reality was half as exciting as what the models are showing. I don't want for anyone to die or get hurt, but it sure would be fun to watch a cat 3,4,or 5 hurricane in the gulf barreling towards the southeast. Not to mention it could completely end the drought here. Of course, if a cat 5 hit Fl and moved north into GA at a fast speed I imagine it would do tremendous damage even in North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I remember Opal like it was yesterday... had near hurricane force winds all the up to Chattanooga... Was a thrill ride in a sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Plot twist? 0z EURO takes a nose dive into South America 994mb landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 ok hour 168 its pulling north out of South America as a developing hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Plot twist? 0z EURO takes a nose dive into South America 994mb landfall Has a hurricane hitting Venezuela and Colombia. Lifts out around 168 hours though. Stronger than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Has a hurricane hitting Venezuela and Colombia. Lifts out around 168 hours though. Stronger than previous run. when it lifts out it doesn't even try to go west....due north? different track coming maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 its running into to the mountains of Hispaniola. Sandy wasn't even that brave. doesn't make it to the western Caribbean, that's October for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 NAVGEM/CMC also avoiding western Caribbean. gfs vs the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 The sharp right turn in the euro and cmc is similar to what Hazel did in 54'. Not saying this is gonna be a hazel just the turn as modeled is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 The GFS says out to sea now and will probably be right. The US continues to avoid a major hurricane it seems this year and probably for a lot longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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