packbacker Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 For Karl to get farther west we need that ridge over the OH-V to lift NE and trough to shift east some. EPS starts to hint at that day 10...lots of members on the EPS showing potential SE hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Floyd in 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Models bring Julia a bit closer to the NC coast with the latest runs, still a weak sheared out POS storm.....LLC looks really good though so if the shear where to ever relax it wouldnt take it long to gain strength....shear however looks nasty for at least another 2-3 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 6:12 PM, Isopycnic said: You should go chase Julia... For noaa. I will if it tries to strike Oak Island, NC.....pattern supports anywhere from Florida to NC....not out to sea like the NHC suggests. The pattern is different further out to sea for Karl tho...that one will pose no threat to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Karl's path will have a lot to do with how strong he gets in the short term, the stronger he is now the further SW he should go and thus the curve OTS will be closer....both GFS and Euro get him pretty far west before slamming on the brakes and then turning him NE to wreck Bermuda.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 12z euro cat 5 Karl 923mb. that's a fish storm we would all like to track finally. weak or strong it may get a little ways south-west of Bermuda but it will near 100% turn away from the east coast with this setup. should be a easy forecast and a fun one to track as it really intensifies. there is only a small chance, around 1-3% chance IMO, with front similarities out ahead, to Hurricane Floyd, a worse case scenario could unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 UPDATE NHC changing path for Julia...no longer north-east.....most global models in agreement for direct strike into North Carolina as it goes non-tropical and enhances rain within approaching front. WPC looking wet for OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 4 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: UPDATE NHC changing path for Julia...no longer north-east.....most global models in agreement for direct strike into North Carolina as it goes non-tropical and enhances rain within approaching front. WPC looking wet for OBX. What models show a direct strike? The models are getting weaker with Karl though which could have an impact on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Most models do bring Julia over eastern NC but they do so with a very weak low, the vis images this morning show the LLC breaking down so it might be dead. It needs to fiire storms on the center, if it doesnt it is dead and done. It might have fired storms last night but it doesnt appear it was enough to save it, but you never know with these things..the LLC does look much much worse today than it did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 On 9/16/2016 at 11:13 AM, packbacker said: For Karl to get farther west we need that ridge over the OH-V to lift NE and trough to shift east some. EPS starts to hint at that day 10...lots of members on the EPS showing potential SE hits. Problem is how volatile and progressive the pattern is. From the 06z runs we see the turn NE begins around 162-180 hours, however the mean turns earlier (closer to 162). Here's the 500mb vort map animation (sorry for the link) http://imgur.com/a/LEMCz showing a huge trough with a low in the lakes diving east, with the remnants of Julia tracking over the NE and Karl making the turn NE. This is probably the most likely situation and it better be, I leave for Brazil Sat night out of ATL On 9/16/2016 at 11:15 AM, packbacker said: Floyd in 99. FWIW via Eric Web, the ideal TC US landfall composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Julia could get slightly interesting if she can take advantage of the rapidly decreasing northernly shear forecast for tonight into tomorrow....the southerly shear wont be as bad since she should be moving north at that point and we could actually see a weak TS landfalling along the SE NC coast especially if it moves faster than the forecast calls for....anytime you have a decent LLC over the gulf stream with low shear you got to worry it has a chance to organize quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Latest on Julia from NHC, I think she might move a bit faster north if she does develop a core of storms, they always seem too slow with the timing on these type systems, they almost always get here quicker than modeled.....probably see TS warnings from Myrtle Beach to Lookout or Hatteras by this time tomorrow if it does flare up overnight.....really do not want the rain. Would be crazy if she bombs out and makes a run at a decent TS.... Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C. Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for regeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday afternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening, which is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Rapid change from the WPC from earlier outlooks..really shoving in heavier totals for eastern NC into the Piedmont, Virginia included. 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: What models show a direct strike? The models are getting weaker with Karl though which could have an impact on the track. With Julia...nearly all of them its a lock for increased tropical moisture. Karl has never been a threat...in this pattern. I have said for several days Julia will be the greater impact even when the NHC had her rapidly going north-east out to sea...she was in a sweet spot for steering currents that Karl will NEVER get close to seeing. NO long tracking storms from Africa that go north of the Caribbean Islands will be a threat in this setup. NONE. They must go through the Caribbean or develop in the western Caribbean or GOM....and then they will sharply turn north-east towards Florida/East Coast States in this steering pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 If Joe Bastardi wasn't so focused with Karl missing the trough or not he would have seen Julia has always been the real threat based on the weak steering. * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of eastern North Carolina... * Until 6 am EDT Tuesday * heavy rain from Post tropical cyclone Julia interacting with a stalled front will produce a risk of flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely with locally higher amounts to 6 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Low rider on the 0z GFS from Africa again....ends up in far south Caribbean/northern Central America....that will be our seed as cool air evades the lower 48. Trouble in the Caribbean brewing long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 End of run...990mb deepening over water between Cuba and Florida headed north. This one will be called "Matthew" as TD13 gets "Lisa". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: End of run...990mb deepening over water between Cuba and Florida headed north. GFS has been showing that for a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 0z GFS major hurricane before it gets to the central Gulf of Mexico. Yikes. October looking spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 6z GFS...land interaction with South America...still finds itself hitting Florida as a major...much of Georgia south of Atlanta is getting hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 October surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 Who knows - it is way out there and sort of reminds me of our winter snow runs ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Well let's see - we've gone from a Fla hit in my back yard, to Alabama, to a fish swimmer in 3 runs. I'm going with the snow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 It really does seem unless we're 72 hours out, when it comes to anything other than sunny and dry the models are all over the place these days, whether it be with rain systems, hurricanes, or possible winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 I know we had Hermine but this hasnt felt like even an average cane season much less above avg. Day 10+ pattern looks better for potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 For upcoming "Matthew" Major east coast erosion if the 6z GFS is right from Florida to Maine. Eastern NC is spared last minute but OBX is brushed with wind and heavy rain from offshore 963mb. Big blow to New England incoming 949 mb direct strike. 12z GFS........weak hurricane for Puerto Rico....961mb hurricane for Bermuda.....943mb turns WEST direct strike for Nova Scotia. 18z GFS....minor impact to Bahamas and out sea. 12z EURO....987mb strengthening south-west Caribbean in no hurry to come north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 0z GFS appears to have folded to the 12z EURO now.....strong hurricane deep into the Caribbean....into the GOM at 960mb....landfall in western Louisiana...998mb western North Carolina.......much of drought area gets wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 gfs 6z develops sooner for Caribbean islands and more north into central Caribbean less South America impact hour210 passing north-west of Jamaica 990mb hour240 brief strike of western Cuba or just offshore going through the Yucatan Channel 981mb hour 252 Matthew is the hot Gulf of Mexico up 1mb after Cuba interaction hour 276 RI underway, 969mb and steering is north into the United States hour 288 major hurricane Matthew is running for a Hurricane Ivan path but more east landfall/stall Florida panhandle for days, slow fizzle due east not north most rain shunted south of Atlanta GA, some strengthening of storm in the Atlantic out to sea for Carolina rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 18z GFS 945mb western GOM....then sharp north-east turn into the South/East rain incoming big event Apps......drought gone. Lots of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 I am more interested in this storm than any of the previous...the speed is a HUGE factor moving at 25mph helps it not develop and stay south through the Atlantic. I fear this could be the late season big dog that has came to be more of the "norm" as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 0z GFS h300 runs into northern Yucatan 959mb 360 headed north-east in eastern GOM 957mb peak 372 landfall major for Cedar Key area, Tampa spared barely 384 south carolina/georgia border inland 982mb, one hell of a storm for the S/E, rain well into the MTNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.