Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: It's basically exactly the same. Around 2-4 inches for RDU and a band of 6+ sets up from fayetteville NE towards the coast Awesome. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: Maybe the 4K GFS will save us. Or the RGEM. 00z RGEM has the storm off the coast starting around Charleston and shows 1" for Raleigh proper and 0.5" for southern Durham. It's even worse than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: 00z RGEM has the storm off the coast starting around Charleston and shows 1" for Raleigh proper and 0.5" for southern Durham. It's even worse than the 18z. You know if it was winter, the storm would be tracking up I-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: It's basically exactly the same. Around 2-4 inches for RDU and a band of 6+ sets up from fayetteville NE towards the coast More like 1-3", and there's a big trend downwards, so I'd expect the results to be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: You know if it was winter, the storm would be tracking up I-77. Natch. Or if it had a weak eastern quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 My 5:50 PM flight out of Tallahassee got cancelled, but I was able to get a refund on my ticket and just drove back to Greensboro. I left around 3 PM about an hour after it started raining in Tallahassee and got back to GSO around midnight. I drove out of the rain around Thomasville, GA and it was a pretty easy drive from there aside from running into some rain near Rock Hill, SC tonight. Looks like Tallahassee is getting clobbered right now on the NW side of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 hours ago, WidreMann said: More like 1-3", and there's a big trend downwards, so I'd expect the results to be lower. Looking at things this morning...1-3" may be high for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I wonder what's going to cause Hermine to slow down once it gets off the coast of the Mid Atlantic ? Don't tropical systems usually accelerate once they get further north in latitude ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 23 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I wonder what's going to cause Hermine to slow down once it gets off the coast of the Mid Atlantic ? Don't tropical systems usually accelerate once they get further north in latitude ? Big block to the north/east...trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Don't don't get too excited but it looks like the models are starting to pick up on 92L again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 On August 31, 2016 at 3:25 PM, NWNC2015 said: My Probability Forecast *dry/cooler air will win this battle for... West of the blue ridge into TN ~100% NC Mountains/Foothills 90% North-West Piedmont of NC 70% Central NC 50% Eastern NC 20% Coastal NC ~0% *more Fall like than Tropical I think I did really well after looking at the official storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 19 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I think I did really well after looking at the official storm reports. Usually, if you have to pat your own back it probably wasn't notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 Something to keep an eye on, but looks like if anything forms they both would curve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 3 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Something to keep an eye on, but looks like if anything forms they both would curve out to sea. Yeah, no one gets close to these two waves unless you have a C130 or a container ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 Invest 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Just noticed this on the NHC site. Surprised it jumped from nothing to 40% just today. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach, Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon. The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida. Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this system, including possible warnings. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent 2. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 NHC just got caught with their pants down. Julia overland in Florida. Advisories coming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: NHC just got caught with their pants down. Julia overland in Florida. Advisories coming later. Thought they were going to initiate advisories at 5PM. Looking even better now. Kinda late now to name it now. It would be the shortest Tropical storm ever lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Thought they were going to initiate advisories at 5PM. Looking even better now. Kinda late now to name it now. It would be the shortest Tropical storm ever lol. post review will make it not be a tropical storm forming over land. probably offshore depression first or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Advisories to be initiated at 11 PM on Julia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Oh, boy, another cut off TD over Ga on and off for 2 weeks, lol. We still haven't gotten over TD Alberto T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 40 minutes ago, dsaur said: Oh, boy, another cut off TD over Ga on and off for 2 weeks, lol. We still haven't gotten over TD Alberto T Hey Tony. It's good to see you post on here again. It seems like I haven't seen you on here in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Well, summer beat the weather love right out of me, lol, but now I can see winter on the horizon, I have to get the moles ready to help get you and me some icy goodness this winter. Well, I like the sleet, and you want the snow...but it's all comprised of frozen water So it's all good. I had hopes the td would bring up some rain to us, but Goofy's backed off on anything much for you and me. Hopefully that will change. Surely Metal Boy doesn't need all the rain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Tweleve looks a bit south on the track compared to yesterday. Maybe not a fish storm after all? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1216W5_NL+gif/143708W5_NL_sm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Maybe, but it has a long way to go even if the track holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 12Z EURO has a powerful hurricane north of the Bahamas late in the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 12Z EURO has a powerful hurricane north of the Bahamas late in the run.. yeah its a bit northeast of the normal tracks for something that comes on in but the run is not exactly looking like a classic recurve is happening yet, its still moving NW at the end of the run, the base of that trough is a bit north and if that trough doesnt get any further SE than that it could very well slip under it instead of curving OTS, and then it could potentially end up hitting the SE coast most likely SC/NC being that far NE already..... Euro showing 940 mb as well....IF IF IF this system plays out like the Euro models it to it would be very close to the way Fran in 96 tracked and even close to how the storm evolved strength wise, at least up to that point in no way am I suggesting this thing hits like Fran did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 no the pattern doesn't support that. 6 of the 50 euro ensembles hit the east coast. GFS doesn't do much of anything. its not happening for the S/E but Bermuda should keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 I'm more interested in Julia...which I think could intensify into a hurricane. NHC just recently bumped up the intensity further out in time but not high enough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I'm more interested in Julia...which I think could intensify into a hurricane. NHC just recently bumped up the intensity further out in time but not high enough IMO. You should go chase Julia... For noaa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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