NWNC2015 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 As much as I would like to see some well inland impact like the GFS shows my gut feeling tells it is out too lunch. I would favor climo scenario with any meaningful impact limited no further west than Raleigh NC to Florence SC. It will book it north-east leaving the upstate of SC high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 As much as I would like to see some well inland impact like the GFS shows my gut feeling tells it is out too lunch. I would favor climo scenario with any meaningful impact limited no further west than Raleigh NC to Florence SC. It will book it north-east leaving the upstate of SC high and dry. Not here ... you ever dealt with it? Looks nice on a model; not in real life. 'Canes don't "melt" like snow. The aftermath is horrible. Next week, next month, next year .... My 2¢ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 As much as I would like to see some well inland impact like the GFS shows my gut feeling tells it is out too lunch. I would favor climo scenario with any meaningful impact limited no further west than Raleigh NC to Florence SC. It will book it north-east leaving the upstate of SC high and dry. If anything forms it's out to sea. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 0z GFS actually held serve pretty well with it's inland track. Appears to be further inland at the same time versus 12z, really going to ruin race weekend and beach plans for folks if the rain totals are close to what's being shown. BTW... 0z Canadian is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 gfs still showing a strung out weak lp offshore chs/myrtle sunday. nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 RAH disco... The12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00zrun, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows thelow center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Bothsolutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy anddamp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue theupward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night throughat least Monday. In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, itcould possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezyfrom Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now,given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limitedto the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you haveoutdoor plans this holiday weekend, you'll definitely want to payclose attention to the forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 MHX Saturday through Tuesday...Better agreement amongst the GFS/ECMWFand Canadian showing surface low pressure forming off the GA/SCborder. Given very weak mid-level flow...the low will basicallymeander to our south for a few days. Moisture increases with lowPoPs returning to the immediate coast late Friday night and overall areas Saturday into Tuesday. In conjunction with neighorboringoffices and uncertainty...have kept Pops generally in the 30-40percent range through the period. With the increased cloudcoverage, expecting a small diurnal temperatures variation throughthis period with lows generally upper 60s to around 70 and highsaround 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 And, the NHC... SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL335 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Oceannear and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with theinteraction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.While development is not expected for the next couple of days,environmental conditions could become more conducive for sometropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area ofdisturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward ornorthwestward and gradually approach the southeastern UnitedStates over the next few days. The next Special Tropical WeatherOutlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percentForecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 06Z GFS keeps the low weak and almost non existent in the last few runs, the 00Z CMC was a decent hit for eastern NC and had another low east of Bahamas at the end of the run...given the setup would think GFS more likely than the CMC. That said the NHC has bumped the 5 day chance of development up to 50% SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Oceannortheast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of anupper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is notanticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditionsare expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropicaldevelopment on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast tomove slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and graduallyapproach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The nextSpecial Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 25, 2016 Author Share Posted May 25, 2016 EURO feeling confident of possible Bonnie towards SE this holiday weekend. www.spaghettimodels.com 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 gefs looks favorable. heading to chas tomorrow for a wedding this weekend so i'll be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 cmc initialized well and has a weak landfall near myrtle and heads up thru central nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 I thought the big high over NE and off the Atlantic coast, was going to force it to go WNW, after landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 I thought the big high over NE and off the Atlantic coast, was going to force it to go WNW, after landfall? There really is no big high in NE, looks like it slips up the west side of the Bermuda High as a "front" with a GL low and another low in the mid west works its way east. Pretty typical for this time of the year.....actually has some winds over 35 in eastern NC lol...need the NHC to classify it a invest so they can start running the HWRF and GFDL on it. And then I go and see they actually have declared it 91L ( was wondering why 91 then remembered our Jan hurricane) so we should get some hi res model runs of it at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Whether this actually becomes Bonnie or not, if it's going to pump in moisture like the GGEM is showing, parts of NC will be dealing with some heavy rain. PWATs near 2.25 inches Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Probably a ghost storm but GFS brings a weak hurricane up the east coast of Florida after brushing south Florida, hits SC, heads due west towards Atlanta, GA. All of this is post 300hrs with a start from the Gulf/Caribbean....very strange path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 5h5 hours ago By the way, watch W. Carib in long-range. When upper trough leaves, trade wind surge comes from east => convergence He is referring to the EURO above. 12z GFS brings a weak cane near the OBX at hour 300 then it hits Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 EURO brings tropical system to Tampa Bay area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 CMC brings a major hurricane up the east coast with a direct strike. 979mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 CMC brings a major hurricane up the east coast with a direct strike. 979mb. Yeah thats not gonna happen with the water temps in the 50-60's degree range off the east coast....the CMC is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Yeah thats not gonna happen with the water temps in the 50-60's degree range off the east coast....the CMC is on crack. It's very unlikely but it does ride the entire Gulf Stream and the hurricane models warm the ocean up very quickly early June...at least up to VA anyways. Before After Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 It's very unlikely but it does ride the entire Gulf Stream and the hurricane models warm the ocean up very quickly early June...at least up to VA anyways. Before After Go here and click on buoys all of them are 50's with a few low 60's, those maps you posted look great but the buoys say no chance north of Hatteras even with the storm hauling ass it will die as soon as it hits the waters off NC. The ocean off VA Beach is only mid 60's. Its not even remotely possible for a TS much less a cane to hit NE right now. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Northeast.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Yeah thats not gonna happen with the water temps in the 50-60's degree range off the east coast....the CMC is on crack.Looks like the models suck at hurricanes as bad as they do at snow! Upgrades FTL ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 12z CMC update. EURO carbon copy but stronger with south of Tampa, Florida hit...then major hurricane status with a OBX brush by. Doesn't go to New England this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 12z EURO with a tropical storm in the Tampa Bay area then strengthening as its off the coast of NC and out to sea. Might be worth a chase to watch the surf on my week off matches up perfectly. Be careful for deadly rip currents with beach plans for second week of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Colin is next on the list for our Florida board members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 CMC / GEM shows it but more panhandle the last I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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