downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 31 minutes ago, beanskip said: This thing is going to have to work hard to get east of Tallahassee. If it doesn't .... TIM BERRRRRRRRR. Just hope it continues to accelerate and the duration of worse winds are limited to a few hrs.....looks like a nighttime hit so that sucks...hopefully it isnt to bad and the power outages are short lived....try to get some video though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: This thing still looks like it's strengthening to me, new convection firing...just running out of gulf space. Agreed. It's also gone from no defined center, to what could be considered two eye-wall bands very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Friction from land interaction should really begin to kick in and that eye will likely consolidate. Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are nothing to mess around with. This could catch quite a few off guard over the next day(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 18z NAM really dumps on central and eastern NC. This is out to 48 hours, still some precip falling in N.NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z NAM really dumps on central and eastern NC. This is out to 48 hours, still some precip falling in N.NC. Why dont ya do the honor and start of Obs/realtime thread for Hermine since the threat is legit could be a epic rainfall event if the models are correct....and that way we wont clutter up the general thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, Bryan63 said: Does anyone know of webcams in the area of landfall in Florida? http://gulfcoastbeachcams.com/ http://www.destincam.com/ https://www.tripsmarter.com/destin/video/live-cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Why dont ya do the honor and start of Obs/realtime thread for Hermine since the threat is legit could be a epic rainfall event if the models are correct....and that way we wont clutter up the general thread.... Done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Had to post this...did it get lucky or just this darn good. Op Euro day 5-6 from last Sun 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 On to the next one over much of the Carolinas and the southeast. This storm is going east and I would not be surprised if most areas west of an Augusta GA, Raleigh NC line stay mostly dry. The east trend is not over with this. It will track OFFSHORE of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Getting NAM'd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 yeah NAM a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah NAM a lot of rain Edenton should be washed away as they look like the jackpot, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 yeah NAM a lot of rain 4km NAM is better...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Why does the 4k NAM show so much more rain through the Triangle than the 32k or 12k? And which version is more reliable anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Why does the 4k NAM show so much more rain through the Triangle than the 32k or 12k? And which version is more reliable anyway? Neither probably. I'm going with a blend of the GFS and the NAM. About 0.75" in the central Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4k NAM seems to develop a north spur of lower pressure off the main storm and maybe that's enhancing the rainfall. Honestly, it doesn't make a lot of sense. I wouldn't expect the western side of a TS to generate a whole lot of rain, even with frontal enhancement and upper air support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 4k NAM seems to develop a north spur of lower pressure off the main storm and maybe that's enhancing the rainfall. Honestly, it doesn't make a lot of sense. I wouldn't expect the western side of a TS to generate a whole lot of rain, even with frontal enhancement and upper air support. I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned. I don't buy the NAM either but is OK at SLP tracking inside 24 hours. With that track we would be rainy/windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It was only slightly east of where the eye seems to be tracking now. Not enough to matter. Models are pretty tightly clustered around a far eastern coastal plain track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't buy the NAM either but is OK at SLP tracking inside 24 hours. With that track we would be rainy/windy. My guess is 3.5" at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I have following Hermine so closely I forgot about Lester to my east. We are under a hurricane watch. When was the last time Oahu was under a hurricane watch? This is also the first hurricane watch I have ever been under. Everyone is about to go into panic mode like with 40mph tropical storm Darby. Lol. I think Lester might pass just to the north here. Obama is also here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 GFS rolling.. Lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 39 minutes ago, packbacker said: 4km NAM is better...LOL Yeah sick I got close to 2.5" tonight....that isnt included in the above....not good not good ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: My guess is 3.5" at RDU. About what I was thinking...3-5" across the triangle. RAH is mentioning 30-40mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: About what I was thinking...3-5" across the triangle. RAH is mentioning 30-40mph gusts. Yeah, that sounds about right. How's the GFS coming in? Ticking east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that sounds about right. How's the GFS coming in? Ticking east? Quite. Probably a good 20-30 miles from 12z/18z. Looks like sharp precip cut off through northern Durham and Orange counties. It dropped totals in south Durham from 2.3" to 1.1". Strangely, wind fields look about the same. I think the storm being closer to the ocean allows it to stay a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: About what I was thinking...3-5" across the triangle. RAH is mentioning 30-40mph gusts. Really unlikely TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that sounds about right. How's the GFS coming in? Ticking east? Maybe a hair but its not nearly as wet for me, I will take it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Quite. Probably a good 20-30 miles from 12z/18z. Looks like sharp precip cut off through northern Durham and Orange counties. It dropped totals in south Durham from 2.3" to 1.1". Strangely, wind fields look about the same. I think the storm being closer to the ocean allows it to stay a little stronger. Maybe the 4K GFS will save us. Or the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that sounds about right. How's the GFS coming in? Ticking east? It's basically exactly the same. Around 2-4 inches for RDU and a band of 6+ sets up from fayetteville NE towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.