Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Guys, I think we need to face facts here. Any solution that shows rain for Jonesville is clearly wrong. This will go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6z gfs shows the storms wrapping around the coc as it makes landfall and as it comes up the coast it puts points west of the center in some pretty heavy rainfall. you can see the storms on the east side starting to wrap around the top now as it goes northeast http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Guys, I think we need to face facts here. Any solution that shows rain for Jonesville is clearly wrong. This will go east. I am amazed they have not reprogrammed the models to reflect this known fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I am amazed they have not reprogrammed the models to reflect this known fact. Budget cuts? Here's my favorite from last night (although I can't see the precip total for the Navgem, which looks to be pretty robust, based on the track and precip max placement): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Question about the reliability of the HWRF (988 mb at landfall) and GFDL (968 mb) on intensity forecasts? Reliable? Toss 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like Hermine will make a run at cane strength today. 65mph winds and pressure at 992mb on the 8am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, beanskip said: Question about the reliability of the HWRF (988 mb at landfall) and GFDL (968 mb) on intensity forecasts? Reliable? Toss 'em? 968 is to low.....988 might be doable...HWRF does better IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, Hvward said: Looks like Hermine will make a run at cane strength today. 65mph winds and pressure at 992mb on the 8am update. Needs to consolidate a center, they are not getting winds at the surface to match the pressure falls and FL winds..looks a bit better on the recent loops but still very one sided..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 25 minutes ago, beanskip said: Question about the reliability of the HWRF (988 mb at landfall) and GFDL (968 mb) on intensity forecasts? Reliable? Toss 'em? As has been said, the HWRF is better as the GFDL gets overly excited about storms quite often. However, no individual model does very well with intensity guidance. The IVCN consensus outperforms any one model by quite a bit. As for models, last time I looked (it has been years) SHIPS did the best of any one model even though it's simply a statistical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Needs to consolidate a center, they are not getting winds at the surface to match the pressure falls and FL winds..looks a bit better on the recent loops but still very one sided.....It will get its act together as the day progresses. Shear is relaxing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Guys, I think we need to face facts here. Any solution that shows rain for Jonesville is clearly wrong. This will go east. LOL, yeah it aint gonna rain in Jonesville. Misery will continue there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: It will get its act together as the day progresses. Shear is relaxing a bit. Latest sat loop showing a bit better outflow to the north and west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, Hvward said: It will get its act together as the day progresses. Shear is relaxing a bit. I dunno every time it looks like its finally gonna do something it fall apart a bit...its a weird storm for sure....already the cloud tops to the east of the center are warming, and the large storm complex looks to be breaking off so to speak.....wish we could see the CoC on radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Seems the track is going back and forth now. We had the big shift west, then it went east more, and now ticks back a little west more. Back and forth. Either way it looks like a mess for Raleigh and eastern NC. RAH had this in their last briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I dunno every time it looks like its finally gonna do something it fall apart a bit...its a weird storm for sure....already the cloud tops to the east of the center are warming, and the large storm complex looks to be breaking off so to speak.....wish we could see the CoC on radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rbtop-long.html models have been showing this, it is the convection finally wrapping around the center instead of blowing up to the east as it has done for the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: models have been showing this, it is the convection finally wrapping around the center instead of blowing up to the east as it has done for the past few days. Needs to hurry its got 10-12 hrs at best before landfall...I figure it runs out of time but they go ahead and call it a 75 mph hurricane, will be interesting to see if it can get the surface winds to match the pressure fall.....and a lot of times these weird lopsided type systems actually tighten up a bit after landfall....I really dont want 6-10" of rain though....we dont need or want it down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just went back and compared the 18z GFS to the 0z and then to the 6z; for current hour 51. 18z basically ran it up I-95, 0z shifted it to the coast and then finally the 6z shifted it back westward about half the distance between the coast and I-95. It will be interesting to see what the 12z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 NAM is a shift east. Runs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12 NAM is a shift east. Runs the coast. Still really wet/windy for us, it was a hair east of 6z but west of 12z...consensus is getting there. 4km NAM is showing 25-30 mph sustained with 40+mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I think the office should go ahead and announce we're closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like 12z GFS will be around 998mb at landfall. Edit: Odd, 997 after landfall. Meh, someone with better maps can tell more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shawn said: Looks like 12z GFS will be around 998mb at landfall. Edit: Odd, 997 after landfall. Meh, someone with better maps can tell more. Yep...initialized at 1000 and it should have been 992'ish. Track similar to 6z, but stronger than 6z. Drenching for central-coastal NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like it should strenghthen soon. Storms really wrapping around center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...initialized at 1000 and it should have been 992'ish. Track similar to 6z, but stronger than 6z. Drenching for central-coastal NC/SC. It needs to roll about 30 miles to the west. Either way, should be some good totals in southeastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z GFS - Some of this includes the frontal rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: With that being extratropical as it moves into NC, it should force more of the rain shield westward. The quicker the storm converts the more rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It needs to roll about 30 miles to the west. Either way, should be some good totals in southeastern NC. 30 miles farther northwest would be nice. Right now, my county is split in half with heavy rains in the southeast and maybe an inch where I am. Nothing much from the tropical system along or NW of I-85 in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Some thoughts. The last GFS run was a bit faster than the previous. Hermine is finally starting to try and get wrapped up on latest satellite. I would expect to see a Westward movement as this happens/land interaction. Might not be a "huge" amount but should put some areas on the edge (currently) into more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, jshetley said: 30 miles farther northwest would be nice. Right now, my county is split in half with heavy rains in the southeast and maybe an inch where I am. Nothing much from the tropical system along or NW of I-85 in SC. About the same here...I'm right on the line...30 or 40 miles further northwest means the difference between an inch and 4 or 5 inches..not to mention the likely hood of stronger gusts underneath the stronger convection. I had hope yesterday when we saw that shift...but that's why one run doesn't make a trend and shouldn't be taken as a certainty...even if the majority trend the same way. I hate these systems where tiny shifts has such huge consequinces since more often than not it ends up being a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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