Hvward Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z HWRF has max winds of close to 100kts when Hermine makes landfall in FL. It also holds wind gusts above 60kts on the coast of GA, SC, and NC for a good period of the day Saturday. Should be a fun trip CR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 My Probability Forecast *dry/cooler air will win this battle for... West of the blue ridge into TN ~100% NC Mountains/Foothills 90% North-West Piedmont of NC 70% Central NC 50% Eastern NC 20% Coastal NC ~0% *more Fall like than Tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 GSP is buying the change in track and is going with 1-2 inches of rain for a good chunk of our CWA. Brad Panovich is going farther east and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Greetings from Tallahassee! I move from Shelby to Destin and get an ice storm ... then I move to TLH and ... well, we shall see. 18z NAM comes in 6 mb weaker than 12z run at 3 hours (vs. 9 hours). Also, a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 30 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z HWRF has max winds of close to 100kts when Hermine makes landfall in FL. It also holds wind gusts above 60kts on the coast of GA, SC, and NC for a good period of the day Saturday. Should be a fun trip CR! Gonna be fun, unless it takes the Navgem track. Then you guys might get the brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 18z NAM now 7mb weaker than 12z run valid at 3z Thursday -- still at 1000 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Disco from RAH: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... ...Newly named TS Hermine to possibly impact central NC Friday and Saturday... The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF both indicated a slower and westward shift in the track of now TS Hermine , a trend that started last night. It appears Hermine will drift north across the Florida panhandle and then begin to interact with a trough digging through the Midwest. This interaction makes the westward shift plausible, and the GFS/ECMWF paint 2+ inches of qpf across nearly all of central NC Friday through early Saturday as the low center moves essentially along the I-95 corridor. The official track from the NHC this afternoon will offer much needed guidance in these trends. One thing that will likely be a significant factor will be the cold front that settles across the area tomorrow. Heavy precip could develop along the front by early Friday, still well away from Hermine, and a left of track QPF max should evolve as well given the front and upper jet to the northwest. We have remained a little conservative in our increase in QPF, but there is enough agreement in the GFS and ECMWF, supported by many GEFS members, to forecast 1-3 inches of storm total QPF, with some high amounts in the southeast. Wind isn`t a significant threat with this potential event, but an inland track will also increase winds and a threat of some downed trees with the heavy rain. Have also lowered highs into the upper 70s on Friday, though these could be several degrees cooler as well. -BS Saturday: Forecast confidence is quite low, especially earlier in the day, due to the uncertainty in track and speed of the tropical cyclone. Latest operational GFS and NAM have brought the cyclone`s track progressively west into the piedmont with slower forward speed. This would obviously extend potentially heavy rain into Saturday morning. Will thus have chance PoPs in the west graduated a lingering likely PoP in the east during the morning tapering off to chance in the northeast by evening, with no PoP overnight. Guidance highs are likely too high as well the likelihood of extensive cloud coverage and rain...will lower to the 75 to 80 degree range...with mins on Saturday night from 60 to 65 under clearing skies. Sunday through Wednesday: Mostly clear skies through the period as cool surface high pressure will be building in from the north and overhead early next week. This will maintain below-normal thicknesses through Monday, with temps beginning to climb Tue and Wed as the high shifts overhead and offshore. Highs will be mostly in the lower-mid 80s with lows in the lower-mid 60s through Mon, followed by warming temps to upper 80s Tue and Wed with potentially some lower 90s on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Gonna be fun, unless it takes the Navgem track. Then you guys might get the brunt of it. That is a model developed for tropical storms. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The NE trough continues to trend faster with the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 While I like the new track, I have to say I've already seen some nice effects from the storms. Breezes, and wind, and making it feel cooler than it is. I'm at 91 but it feels much cooler, after a summer of it feeling much hotter The last few days have been a huge relief. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Nice jog east on the NAM. Pretty good cut-down on the totals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 24 minutes ago, dsaur said: While I like the new track, I have to say I've already seen some nice effects from the storms. Breezes, and wind, and making it feel cooler than it is. I'm at 91 but it feels much cooler, after a summer of it feeling much hotter The last few days have been a huge relief. T It still feels hot as crap to me even with the lower humidity. It did feel nice this morning though at 65 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice jog east on the NAM. Pretty good cut-down on the totals too. The EPS/GEFS are step for step. Going to be a rainy Friday/Saturday morning and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice jog east on the NAM. Pretty good cut-down on the totals too. Still not bad totals; at least for our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice jog east on the NAM. Pretty good cut-down on the totals too. Watch the GFS do the same. The party was nice while it lasted, but the NHC 11am track will end up being close. No relief in the drought areas it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The GEFS/EPS has been building the swATL ridge stronger/west over the past couple of days, thus the west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The NHC came well west with their track at 5pm saying the storm goes through central SC and NC. If that is right, most of both states would get a good rain from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nice jog east on the NAM. Pretty good cut-down on the totals too. 18z RGEM came in even further west then it's 12z run, looks like its in sw GA at 6z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z RGEM came in even further west then it's 12z run, looks like its in sw GA at 6z Fri. And, like the 18z NAM, considerably weaker -- they are both about 5-8 mb weaker than 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, beanskip said: And, like the 18z NAM, considerably weaker -- they are both about 5-8 mb weaker than 12z runs. Well we knew that was going to happen, LOL. The NAM was ridiculous...blend between the GFS/Euro will end up verifying is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 18z gfs has same track maybe a little faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I would guess the current NHC track is as far west as it goes and it creeps back east over the next 24 hrs....tornado threat with the large circulation especially near the coast in SC/NC plus 2-5" of rain....sucks too cause its finally drying out here and deer season is right around the corner....all this will do is get the skeeters to a new level of hell lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, jshetley said: Watch the GFS do the same. The party was nice while it lasted, but the NHC 11am track will end up being close. No relief in the drought areas it seems. It's the proverbial SE shift of a storm. It gets us every time........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I wouldnt trust the NAM much, it always does a terrible job with QPF in winter and summer events. It either over does or under does the QPF, at least in the mid atlantic its been that way minus the blizzard last Jan Wish Hermine would speed up and take a track further east, I need to fly out of RDU Sat morning around 8ish. Figures the first time it rains in quite a while and it is a tropical system that day I have to fly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 This sounds just like the winter storms here with the NW trend and then the totals get cut down drastically about 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Now up to 60 mph and NHC forecasting it to become a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Its a pretty ugly storm, if the center doesn't wrap storms in the next 12 hrs or so its going to have a hard time maintaining it once it starts to speed up. That southern "blob" is really hurting it IMO, its restricting outflow to the south and the dry air to the NW is hurting the outflow in that direction the system is very squeezed and it may end up east of track the whole way especially if that side continues to be the side with the weather, This means it landfalls further east in Florida and also tracks further east up the coast with the center over or even east of MBY...this thing really needs to wrap storms around the center and get some good banding going on, shear is a good as its going to get right now so if it doesn't happen in the next 12 hrs or so it probably isn't......00Z GFS is way east with the center over N....it goes ILM, Jacksonville and then right over Hatteras..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Trending east now. The drought in the southeast goes on untouched. Looks like the heat comes back in a big way next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6z GFS is a big hit of rain from Macon, Columbia, and RDU eastward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS is a big hit of rain from Macon, Columbia, and RDU eastward: Yep...0z runs had a jump east and 6z ticked back west. Windshield wiping now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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