metalicwx366 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Not saying I want one. Just wondering if it would be a threat this time around. I know sometimes there is a tornado threat with tropical systems. Yes there is a tornado threat. TWC saying significant tornado threat. SPC also has a slight risk out. This week has been crazy for me with Tropical cyclones. Lionrock hit Japan which is where one of the bases I forecast for is located and they got 17 inches of rain and 81kt winds. Two hurricanes are headed towards us in Hawaii. And Waycross is under a tropical storm watch and slight risk for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12 gefs via DT on Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: They are wrong. With a trough pushing east, there's no way this thing takes that much of a northerly/westerly track. The surface low is also likely well SE of where currently modeled. See Brad P's most recent vlog (can't embed) for further details. Its not so much about the trough pushing east, it is the timing of the system coming north, if it comes in slower (as is being projected now) it will miss the trough and be free to come further north and also slow down. Some models show it stalling off the Mid-Atlantic coast due to a blocking high to the north also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks. I did check the tropical thread, but I couldn't find any info on the inland winds. I wouldn't think we'd see much sustained above 30s. I could see some gusts into the 40s. Interesting to note that both the gfs/Canadian are showing an increase of 850mb-925mb winds on the north/northwest side of the system after landfall...generally between 50 and 65 knots. Nice surprise to see such a shift north with this system...sure looked like it was going to be a near miss for a while. 4km nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 23 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: They are wrong. With a trough pushing east, there's no way this thing takes that much of a northerly/westerly track. The surface low is also likely well SE of where currently modeled. See Brad P's most recent vlog (can't embed) for further details. The models are picking up on the slower storm progression, thus allowing it to not get kicked out to sea by the trough. This allows it to basically absorb into the ridge and slowly drift NNE through the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 That current track has us on the eastern moist side of the storm. They are already predicting 4-6" for us on Friday into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 We have Tropical storm Hermine now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Seems in general most of the models are showing an increase in convection on the north/northwest side of the system as time progresses...which i'm sure would help bring down some of those higher winds and make for some nice gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I can't believe how big of a shift west the models are taking this. It went from off the NC coast to coming right over the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Multiple mets stating that the GFS/CMC initialized with the SLP well NW of where it currently is. That, combining with the slower timing, causing the NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z Euro in agreement as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Multiple mets stating that the GFS/CMC initialized with the SLP well NW of where it currently is. That, combining with the slower timing, causing the NW shift. We try to use this one in winter, with winter storms, too. It never matters. And Lookout, yeah I agree with you. If we get some robust convection, we could see some good gusts with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Euro modeling 70+mph gusts Friday afternoon in southern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Well all major guidance appears to be on board with a substantial NW shift with the low tracking inland up thru the Carolinas by Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Euro modeling 50+mph gusts in the Carolina's overnight Friday into Saturday. 6-8" of rain in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Euro looks just NE of Raleigh at hour 72,close to a UKMET track but it might be even a little west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 MA crew going to go nuts...Euro just bombs out just east of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro modeling 50+mph gusts in the Carolina's overnight Friday into Saturday. 6-8" of rain in central NC. That sounds pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: MA crew going to go nuts...Euro just bombs out just east of PHL. Yep. Nor'easticane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 French model has it hitting Florida now with a 994 weak cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Leary of Hermine getting to cane strength before FL but should be a big enough menace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 NHC's track looks way east of what the models are showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 We tend to dodge these extreme modeled solutions...but if this is close it could make for a long Friday night into Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: I assume the models have built in the dry slot over Jonesville, SC? Not on the GFS so far, LOL. Seriously though I'm hoping this thing does give much of SC, NC, and GA a good soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z GFS has Hermine staying inland until NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, jshetley said: Not on the GFS so far, LOL. Seriously though I'm hoping this thing does give much of SC, NC, and GA a good soaking rain. It is looking good if the track is a little south of Columbia like the models have gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 We'll this will put Friday Football schedules into chaos. 21z is what 4:00pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Bet the 5pm discussion will be interesting with this 12z shift west. If it does ride up and just west of I 95 that should increase a tornado threat for a much larger area over the southeast. Never know what to think about surface winds when storms track inland like this. Only time I ever remember strong winds was with Danny as it reintesnsified while crossing over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Interesting to note that both the gfs/Canadian are showing an increase of 850mb-925mb winds on the north/northwest side of the system after landfall...generally between 50 and 65 knots. Nice surprise to see such a shift north with this system...sure looked like it was going to be a near miss for a while. 4km nam. If this were to verify I would imagine your area would be quite windy with possibly a tornado risk. If it keeps shifting north we will see some good rain here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/30/2016 at 1:39 PM, NWNC2015 said: I think TD 9 will bring more rainy/windy weather than TD8 for coastal NC. It's going to end up further north than originally expected I believe. How about that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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