NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Are the Euro and GFS still showing a hurricane hitting around 9/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: It will change again next run......for now the take away is that most models agree there will be a storm that forms and makes it into the SW ATL and could threaten the US..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Ensembles are bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 I know we have to take one at a time, but everyone is focusing on TD9 right now and next week looks like it could be a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 4 hours ago, packbacker said: Take it FWIW but the 4km NAM hasn't been excited about TD9 until the 6z and now 12 runs. Not sure if something got ingested...never really trust the 4km NAM after about 30 hours anyways but The GFS and Euro bring it inland and then ENE off the FL or SC coast. The CMC keeps it inland longer and gives plenty of rain to SC and the eastern 2/3 of NC. The Navy brings it inland, north, and then meanders it around. I'd go with the Euro/GFS combo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The GFS and Euro bring it inland and then ENE off the FL or SC coast. The CMC keeps it inland longer and gives plenty of rain to SC and the eastern 2/3 of NC. The Navy brings it inland, north, and then meanders it around. I'd go with the Euro/GFS combo here. Yep, agree. Euro was was a solid TS just west of Gainesville. The next month might be the highlight of our model tracking for awhile...until next cane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Yeah TD9 apparently is gonna be a OTS storm after it exits Florida....the models also form a low off the NE coast of Fl as TD9 approaches the west coast of Florida and rides it right up the coast, the CMC has it the strongest but almost all models have some reflection of a low....its not TD8 either..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep, agree. Euro was was a solid TS just west of Gainesville. The next month might be the highlight of our model tracking for awhile...until next cane season. Saw that. Hope the Euro is/was dead wrong! Phil in Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep, agree. Euro was was a solid TS just west of Gainesville. The next month might be the highlight of our model tracking for awhile...until next cane season. Haha that's probably true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 None of the models really do much with TD 9 shear keeps it in check.....shouldnt be that bad some minor coastal issues and maybe some wind gust to 65 or so, would think that would be confined to the immediate coast but it depends on how well defined the center gets to how far inland it carries the potentially damaging gust... but it looks to be hauling ass by then so it should only take 6-8 hrs to cross Florida. Could be a lot worse....most models keep rainfall under 4-5 inches as well which they should be able to handle. This snip from NHC says it all really, this thing will be running into a wall of death as it nears Florida.... Vertical shear should remain modest for the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours as the environment becomes more baroclinic with strong upper-level westerlies prevailing over northern Florida. This is likely to discourage significant strengthening as the cyclone nears landfall. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 The South-East is prone to post September activity with how systems swing north late in the season.....Hazel, Opal, Mitch, Wilma, Ida, Sandy, etc. Sort of like winter, late February into early March usually brings something. I think saying after next months action we have to wait until next season is a bit...careless at this point in time. That's usually how the public views things and how we end up with "the one" natural disaster of the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The low that is coming off Africa has been designated LOW INVEST (AL92). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I think TD 9 will bring more rainy/windy weather than TD8 for coastal NC. It's going to end up further north than originally expected I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I think the track of TD 9 will be more north and west when the next advisory comes out. Most 12Z models are trending a bit that way and the NHC 10:00 AM track is almost the most southerly of them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Interesting seeing UK/Euro in sync at 60 hours, modeling a cane at this point...whether it's right or now we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Here is the Arpege model (French). Remember it did well with our winter storms last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Interesting burst of convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: Here is the Arpege model (French). Remember it did well with our winter storms last year So it came in weaker than the UK and Euro but nearly identical as to the location of landfall? It will be interesting to see if it verifies. Currently much further west than what the NHC is currently projecting. Will wait on update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 And I'm going to be down at Myrtle Beach this weekend. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting burst of convection... Indeed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And I'm going to be down at Myrtle Beach this weekend. Yay. Warm rain for Cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And I'm going to be down at Myrtle Beach this weekend. Yay. I will see you down there. Looks like rain until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 42 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And I'm going to be down at Myrtle Beach this weekend. Yay. Chasin the storm huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Euro has it a little south of Augusta GA at 72 hours,UKMET a little more SW closer to Albany,GA moving NE. Nice rainmaker for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Pretty good west shift on the NHC track keeps it right along the coast and could easily bring TS conditions to the entire SE coast on this track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The west shift in track prompted MHX to go with this for MBY Friday night Friday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Euro brings a sub 980mb hurricane ashore near Tallahassee. Can't give up on these slowly meandering easterly waves. I told a follower 2 days ago that my best guess for this storm would be a Cat 2 hitting in between Tampa and Tallahassee. Euro seems to be consistently suggesting further development along with the Ukmet and others, so further intensification is almost imminent. If I lived on the west coast of FL, I would be paying very close attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, Hvward said: Euro brings a sub 980mb hurricane ashore near Tallahassee. Can't give up on these slowly meandering easterly waves. I told a follower 2 days ago that my best guess for this storm would be a Cat 2 hitting in between Tampa and Tallahassee. Euro seems to be consistently suggesting further development along with the Ukmet and others, so further intensification is almost imminent. If I lived on the west coast of FL, I would be paying very close attention. The real issue is the shear, its gonna need to be well organized and hauling ass IMO, otherwise the shear will wreck it. Over the next 24-36 hrs though this thing could do just about anything, intensity forecasting is pretty meh and these things kinda do what they want when they have good conditions....looks to finally be consolidating, gonna be a rather big system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Looks like the recent forecasted tracks are putting it onshore near St Marks, but it also looks like it's slowing down some. Looks like it isn't expected to pass over Tallahassee until overnight Friday morning now. I'm hoping that allows me to get out on my 549 pm flight before the winds pick up too much. I notice some of the modeling has it even further west, coming onshore nearer to Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 16 hours ago, Wow said: Warm rain for Cold rain. Hopefully some warm wind too! 15 hours ago, Avdave said: Chasin the storm huh? Looking good on the coordinates! On another note, jshetley will be happy if the CMC verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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