Suncat Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Well, doesn't look there is anything to really discuss now. This is to prepare you for what this winter will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Interesting UK hanging on to a TS or possible low end cane. Still 6 days out...seems like it's been 6 days out for a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 The end of the GFS run has a strong cane taking weird and frankly unlikely track....way outside the benchmark for a SE hit..... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082612&fh=300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 HWRF. No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Morris said: HWRF. No comment. Simulated IR satellite looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Keep a eye on what the models do with the low south of Bermuda, I think that area is whats left of Fiona actually.....NHC has it now as well.....models dont do much with,some shear and dry air around...but it could at least bring rain chances to eastern NC by early next week.....looks like crap right now though... 3. An area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad area of low pressure, has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. Little motion is anticipated during the next two days, and a slow westward heading should begin thereafter. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to this system's proximity to dry air. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 I imagine this will get some attention, and its actually not to far fetched given the overall setup in the tropical ATL and the wave coming off Africa right now....run the rest of this loop...but keep in mind once ashore on that track it wont be that strong inland.....I am sure the track is gonna move around a bunch as well....at least between this and 99L/91L we got stuff to track....folks in NC especially near the coast need to keep a eye on 91L its actually decent looking today at the surface but the shear should be enough to keep it in check. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082712&fh=228 91L vis loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 12z ECMWF has the storm back into the Gulf. Makes landfall around the AL/FL border at about 960mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 42 minutes ago, Disc said: 12z ECMWF has the storm back into the Gulf. Makes landfall around the AL/FL border at about 960mb. Also looks like it has the other storm the GFS takes into the SE in 14 days as well, though it looks like it fishes it......could be a rough few weeks for the SE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 FWIW and hope this is allowed - Ryan Maue has some interesting Tweets (may be time sensitive): https://twitter.com/RyanMaue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 91L MAY HIT HATTERAS AS A CAT1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 How is 91L not a depression right now at the very least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 0z EPS run the most bullish on 99L that I have seen, lots of member agreement on sub 1000 SLP in c-east gulf day 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 GFS goes kinda nuts out past 300 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Tropical storm to brush NC Outer Banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: GFS goes kinda nuts out past 300 also. The EPS day 12-13 has a ton of support for something in the western atlantic and/or gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Finally looked at all the globals from last night, all 4 (UK/Euro/CMC/GFS) show 99L making landfall somewhere on the panhandle day 5. UK/Euro/CMC are roughly 980 with GFS a weaker low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: 91L MAY HIT HATTERAS AS A CAT1 I dont think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Outer Banks have to watch out for a tropical storm now. Just yesterday it seemed like the chances of anything forming would be very low. And looks like business is really picking up in the tropics. Models don't seem to have a handle on things and are all over the place with these tropical systems just as bad as they are with winter storm systems here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Outer Banks have to watch out for a tropical storm now. Just yesterday it seemed like the chances of anything forming would be very low. And looks like business is really picking up in the tropics. Models don't seem to have a handle on things and are all over the place with these tropical systems just as bad as they are with winter storm systems here. Models typically have a hard time with tropical systems, and there is always decent run to run differences especially prior to formation and then after 72 hrs or so....its rare that the tracks of a system are locked in around the US coastlines....usually the only time they are stable is further east out in the MDR.....the tropical storm warnings are for offshore waters there are NO tropical storm warnings for the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Interesting Hurricane Simulator that show the impacts on various pressure field simulations that will impact the path http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/games/movncane.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Not sure why so much talk about the tropics on social media...yea several interests to watch...but the pattern doesn't support some of the model track/intensity solutions showing a constant inland track into the South-East like with Hugo or Ivan. This is just the usual peak time of the season. Like in the winter when it has a widespread 1-2 feet of snow for much of the South-East its still not supported by the upper level pattern as we get closer. I guess what I am saying is just expect the usual tropical rains for eastern NC and the GOM areas closer to Florida for now. This is why I like the regional boards better for tropics there is less hype. We need a storm to actually form and be within the 5 day forecast before getting excited. I'm not saying to let your guard down but more often than not the strongest most impacting storm doesn't align with the "peak of the season" or "social media hype". I believe in the research papers suggesting the seasons are getting longer and possibly stronger near the end than the beginning/middle....think Sandy. Don't put all of your cards into one huge dog we all know it doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 On 8/26/2016 at 2:00 PM, Morris said: HWRF. No comment. That's used for storms that are bit more organized and well defined. It's one of the best tropical intensity models. However, in this case its pretty much useless and has a known bias for over doing it for weaker less defined tropical entities according to the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 For the life of me, it looks like the circulation is over Cuba - I know where the "official" is, and that has me head scratching http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 I'm flying TLH->CLT->GSO on Thursday. Looks like the TD/TS is supposed to recurve east of here at the moment, and hopefully it stays that way as I don't want my flight to get delayed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 16 hours ago, pcbjr said: For the life of me, it looks like the circulation is over Cuba - I know where the "official" is, and that has me head scratching http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html Hard to tell but just north of the NW tip of Cuba. Should be free of Cuba effecting it later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Take it FWIW but the 4km NAM hasn't been excited about TD9 until the 6z and now 12 runs. Not sure if something got ingested...never really trust the 4km NAM after about 30 hours anyways but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 17 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: Not sure why so much talk about the tropics on social media...yea several interests to watch...but the pattern doesn't support some of the model track/intensity solutions showing a constant inland track into the South-East like with Hugo or Ivan. This is just the usual peak time of the season. Like in the winter when it has a widespread 1-2 feet of snow for much of the South-East its still not supported by the upper level pattern as we get closer. I guess what I am saying is just expect the usual tropical rains for eastern NC and the GOM areas closer to Florida for now. This is why I like the regional boards better for tropics there is less hype. We need a storm to actually form and be within the 5 day forecast before getting excited. I'm not saying to let your guard down but more often than not the strongest most impacting storm doesn't align with the "peak of the season" or "social media hype". I believe in the research papers suggesting the seasons are getting longer and possibly stronger near the end than the beginning/middle....think Sandy. Don't put all of your cards into one huge dog we all know it doesn't work that way. Says the guy who posted a winter weather out look in august with no scientific information to back it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Are the Euro and GFS still showing a hurricane hitting around 9/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Hi guys - Another reminder that we encourage posting in the new Tropical Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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