ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 There is nothing to destroy right now except scattered showers though conditions dont look good anywhere to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Joe B hasnt folded yet so we can keep hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 5 hours ago, Jon said: Yeah, Euro with 983mb at "landfall"....yawn. I love how much spread is on the EPS and people are hanging on every run on the Euro...this is worse than winter weenies. haha 5 hours ago, downeastnc said: Yeah kinda hard to get excited about the "Euro" when it changes 300-400 miles every run....not being the "king" right now.....its being just like all the others lol....basically we are back at square one in the don't have a damn clue dept as far as where 99L is gonna go and how big and bad it will be. That does sound like tracking a snow storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 You know there's no consensus when I'm not even barking. There's too much going on. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 38 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That does sound like tracking a snow storm here. Good practice for winter, I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 2 hours ago, SN_Lover said: This may not make it overnight even. 40kt sheer is destroying this. I think it's managing to hold it's own (for now at least) despite the 40kts of shear. If it can manage to hang in til about past 70W the wind shear decreases in half down to around 20kts. Still moderately hostile, but doable for it to organize. It's hard to tell for sure on vis. satellite, but the center looks like it may be roughly around 20N, 66.3W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Beating a dead horse...as several noted above, shear will be a big problem next 36-48 hours. Really not much of anything right now, a dying wave seems to be best bet right now. Still just getting going with cane season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 So people are already throwing in the towel on this?? Has everybody forgotten that the Euro, and several other models progged this would be weak/disorganized all the way until the Bahamas/GOM? Note: Not saying this will turn into anything... Just saying it's not smart to throw in the towel when this thing was progged to be weak for several days beyond now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 To go with the weak system/non system discussion here are some 12z forecasts from the EPS: Key: Strength , Member Count (of 51) 1000mb+ - 18 990 - 999mb - 15 980-989mb - 15 970-979 mb- 3 Worst member is 959mb with nothing between 959-970mb! With this in mind as of 12z EPS, the basic idea would be a storm between 985-1000mb+. I am still tracking this because I am in dire need of rain here in SC. Not holding much hope out now... but if it can stay weaker and let the ridge possibly break down by being slower, we could get some good rains into GA/SC/parts of NC. Florida looks a bit rainy regardless, just can't pinpoint the winner areas yet. Edit: I see I miscounted one? Maybe a control.. but still the idea is a weak system as of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 00z GFS is gonna be another mess, if a system at all with 99Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 00z Euro likely making landfall around the big bend at 972-975mb range. Closer to 975 from newer frames and coming into Southern GA at 979. - Bringing good rains for GA/SC (big chunk of the states) so far, but likely a tornado risk out ahead with the way it's moving.. including the SC Midlands, Southern GA, Coastal SC (worst looking). Anyways, it will change, lets get a circulation going before getting too detailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Models are struggling to see where the low pressure goes once it reaches Hispaniola. Euro and GFS both keep this easterly wave north of the island. Current satellite though suggests 99L is redeveloping to the south of the island. IMO still wayyy to far out to make any assumptions with this one, but a decent environment awaits in the Gulf with the chance for RI. Anywhere from Houston to Miami is still in play at this point. Today will be interesting day, lets see which side of the island the LP decides to reform on, then the models with get a better handle of if it will even intensify and where it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Not gonna cut it. Northern portion is completely sheered and column is now decoupled even more. Cuba is going to kill this low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Not gonna cut it. Northern portion is completely sheered and column is now decoupled even more. Cuba is going to kill this low pressure.If this system were a cat 3 or 4 then I would agree with you, but a weak easterly wave will not be effected nearly as much.. Can't rule out intensification following its exit from the island. Climatologically speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Saw this post from WRAL's Greg Fishel on Facebook. Greg Fishel 5 mins · JUST BECAUSE MODELS MAKE 10 DAY FORECASTS DOESN'T MEAN THEY'RE WORTH MORE THAN A HILL OF BEANS When the best global weather model in the world shifts its landfall position of a potential tropical system several hundred miles in 12 hours, only to radically shift back in another 12 hours, while yet another global model doesn't develop the system at all, there is one screaming message-WE DONT KNOW!!! And ya know what? That's ok. No one will die today from a fictitious hurricane 7-10 days out. We've got time, so instead of picking out the ever changing worst case scenario, and focusing on it at the expense of the many more weaker solutions, let's just all take a deep breath and see what happens. And if the worst case scenario does play out, there will be chest beaters who claim they were the first to call it. But as my good friend Kermit Keeter (retired National Weather Service) told me long ago, "I'd rather be right than first". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 I see JB is still betting on a major cane in the GOM making landfall around the Florida-Alabama line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 00z Euro ensembles.. East shift with more members stronger versus 12z yesterday. Still a crapshoot. Euro vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 UKMET is going back west today and is further south,probably a LA/Miss hit.See if the EURO follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Euro was faster and weaker thru 96 has it 1007mb right over Naples....so there is little if any chance it would develop very much unless it goes west a 100 miles or so......GFS and CMC don't even develop it anymore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Euro still east but much weaker.Still could be a nice rainmaker for the SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Major cave by Euro on intensity. 971 to 998 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 People are just clutched on to 99L like its the last wave we are going go see. This was always going to be dying wave...Euro not done caving. Lots of people been trashing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: People are just clutched on to 99L like its the last wave we are going go see. This was always going to be dying wave...Euro not done caving. Lots of people been trashing the GFS. But... But.. The Euro is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 36 minutes ago, packbacker said: People are just clutched on to 99L like its the last wave we are going go see. This was always going to be dying wave...Euro not done caving. Lots of people been trashing the GFS. Safe to say the Euro has moved much more towards the GFS than vice versa...GFS has been pretty much minimal to no storm from 99L the last several days at least .....CMC did end up forming it up and moving west to the TX/LA border but that's got to be a bad run as its completely different than everything else..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Breaking news - We now have dedicated tropical weather forums up and ready to use. We will be strongly encouraging everyone to jump over there to discuss anything and everything tropical: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/36-tropical-weather-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: But... But.. The Euro is king. The Euro has gone downhill the last few years. I'm sure someone will whip out the verification stats now, though! It would be interesting to see how the Euro performs wrt tropics and winter now as compared to 2-3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Wow said: Breaking news - We now have dedicated tropical weather forums up and ready to use. We will be strongly encouraging everyone to jump over there to discuss anything and everything tropical: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/36-tropical-weather-discussion/ This is awesome and a good idea thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 We tend to miss out on some good discussions when we restrict these threads within our own regional forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Well, doesn't look there is anything to really discuss now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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