Solak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 Curved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have become better defined over the past 24 hours. Although the convection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate intensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area. Given the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of nearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this time. The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated as a subtropical storm. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass. A ship traversed the northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not observe winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the advisory wind radii. The cyclone has been turning toward the left as it moves in the flow on the east side of a shortwave trough, and the initial motion is northeastward or 055/12 kt. The trough is expected to continue to swing counterclockwise around a broader mid-latitude cyclonic gyre, and this should result in Alex turning northward and north-northwestward over the next several days. The official forecast track follows the dynamical model consensus. Although the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the next several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively colder waters. Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the next day or so. In the latter part of the forecast period, some strengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes. By 96 hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes. Alex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it passes near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are being issued for those islands. However, gale force winds are likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday or early on Friday. Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.1N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Crazy, first storm to form in January since 1978....and one of only 4 ( kinda surprised there was that many) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 28.4W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE......HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...31.5N 28.4WABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORESMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Pretty damn amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The SST anomalies are impressive off BOTH coasts.. and Mets love to say warm oceans=cold continents.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 At least we have this to track! This is pretty amazing. Just goes to show this is no ordinary winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Amazing even more moreso that the SST's are rather low to support a hurricane of this intensity, however the environment conditions aloft are quite cold and unstable for Alex. (Discussion #4 at 11 AST was very technical and enlightening on this incredible feat Alex has achieved.) In awe really but considering what a torch December was, I kind of had this possibility in my back of my mind that something might do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Stu Ostro @StuOstro 2h2 hours ago MODIS Band 3-6-7 satellite image of the core of #Hurricane #Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is also pretty incredible (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I believe Alex is only the second recorded hurricane in any month to be declared a hurrica e north of 30N and east of 30W. I believe Vince was the other IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any chance we can get a February STS out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Next outlook coming in early April. Ian will be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 6, 2016 Author Share Posted April 6, 2016 Crown Weather Seasonal forecast... http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2016-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 just watch for the letters i,f,h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Watch out for Ian in the Gulf of Mexico I have a feeling. Can toss the rest of the storms.Thanks. Don't be selfish though. Tell us how many storms there will be, how many will be hurricanes/majors, when these storms will form, all the tracks of the storms, and the ACE as well for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Weather Underground @wunderground 4m4 minutes ago CSU is calling for a near-average 2016 Atlantic hurricane season--but with a few wild cards http://bit.ly/1qrPpzh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Hurricane Helene 1958 Interesting storm and rarely discussed. To this day the inland Wilmington NC NWS has not exceeded the 135mph actual measured gust with Helene in 1958 which was higher at the airport than Hazel. Of course overall, Hazel was much worse with the cross coast trajectory, storm surge and estimated gusts of 150 between Myrtle Beach and Wrightsville Beach. Hurricane Helene was the most intense tropical cyclone of the 1958 Atlantic hurricane season, as measured by minimum barometric pressure. The eighth tropical storm and fourth hurricane of the year, Helene was formed from a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles on September 21, 1958. Moving steadily westward, the storm slowly intensified, attaining hurricane strength on September 24. As conditions became increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone development, Helene began to rapidly intensify. Nearing the United States East Coast, the hurricane quickly attained Category 4 intensity on September 26, before it subsequently reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 934 mbar (hPa; 27.84 inHg). The intense hurricane came within 10 mi (15 km) of Cape Fear, North Carolina before recurving out to sea. Accelerating northward, Helene gradually weakened, and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone as it passed over Newfoundland on September 29. Helene's extratropical remnants traversed eastwards across the Atlantic Ocean before dissipating near Great Britain on October 4. Despite not making landfall on North Carolina, its close proximity to land caused extensive damage across the US East Coast. Strong winds resulted in widespread power outages, cutting telecommunications along the coast. A weather station in Wilmington, North Carolina reported a wind gust of 135 mph (215 km/h), setting a new record for fastest wind gust reported there. Though mostly concentrated in North Carolina, rainfall was widespread, reaching as far north as Maine. In the United States, damages reached $11.2 million and there was one indirect death. After impacting the US, Helene produced strong winds and heavy rain across much of Atlantic Canada. In Cape Breton Island on Nova Scotia, the storm was considered the worst in at least 21 years. Power outages cut most communications from the island to the mainland, and property damage in Sydney, Nova Scotia totaled to C$100,000. At Helene's landfall in Newfoundland, strong gusts peaking at 82 mph (132 km/h) in Naval Station Argentia were reported, and loss of power severed communications. Damage across there totaled to at least C$100,000. Total damages associated with Helene in the United States and Canada amounted to $11.4 million, making Helene the costliest storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I was told the government would never allow another Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Bump for EURO/GFS agreement for area of disturbed weather from Florida to North Carolina to form later this month. Different scenarios showing eastern GOM or Myrtle Beach hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Hurricane Wilkesboro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Latest GFS has it form in NE GOM then head west to the NE GOM where it then heads south and loops and comes ashore in the Big Bend of Florida as a 992 LP and has it sitting over Charlotte on the last frame as a 994 low. Wont happen like that but this pattern we are in does make the chances of homegrown systems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Latest guidance favors Atlantic side over the Gulf side. Watch out Myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Levi Cowan6 hours ago GEFS Day 7 vs. 500mb anomaly from all 30 May/June TC formations near SE U.S. coast since 1975 (23 tropical, 7 not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 JAX calls the GFS 'suspect'. During the weekend...the GFS and ECMWF show the low leveltrough moving toward FL with the GFS more pronounced with surfacelow development near the northern Bahamas Saturday night. Givenmodel uncertainties this far out (and suspect GFS model output) andprior forecasts will just continue with increasing easterly tonortheasterly winds and moisture for Saturday and Sunday. Will alsobe increasing shower/thunderstorm chances for the weekend...thoughkeeping them in the 20-40 percent range at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Last Memorial Day blues just 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 will be interesting to see how the models handle this one, surely will change a heck of a lot throughout the week, but hopefully it will be something to track. 6z gfs takes it near SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 The 12Z Euro now agrees with the GFS and CMC and takes a low/weak TC into the Carolinas in 6-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all agree on area of low pressure developing in the Bahamas and moving toward the SE US coast. Strength is the only real difference now. Except the fact that the ECMWF has two lows developing in the same spot back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 @wxbrad 6m6 minutes ago Subtropical Storm Potential off the Southeast Coast for Memorial Day weekend. - @wxbrad Blog http://wp.me/p1srzO-2cT 0 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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