beanskip Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z NAM trending much stronger than the 6z run -- has 993 mb low at 3z Thursday (vs. 999 mb on 6z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 mini storm off SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12Z NAM shows the storm coming up West of 95 and inundating most of NC with rain hah.. but it is the long range NAM, Hi-Res NAM does the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 1:01 PM, Cold Rain said: Hopefully some warm wind too! Looking good on the coordinates! On another note, jshetley will be happy if the CMC verifies! Expand You really going to MYR this weekend? This thing isn't in a hurry, that's for sure. If the NAM is right (LOL), this would be fun in MYR. Looks like it could be a bit breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I know it will speed up in the next 24 hours but seeing the changes on the Euro is interesting... 0z this morning compared with 0z 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The latest NHC track doesn't bring it onshore in the FL panhandle until close to morning on Friday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 1:01 PM, Cold Rain said: Hopefully some warm wind too! Looking good on the coordinates! On another note, jshetley will be happy if the CMC verifies! Expand Looking real good for you if this really gets together. jshetley wouldnt be happy if it verified, it would be to much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 3:17 PM, superjames1992 said: The latest NHC track doesn't bring it onshore in the FL panhandle until close to morning on Friday now. Expand LOL...just realized you are in Tallahassee now. Big impact events just follow you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 3:26 PM, packbacker said: LOL...just realized you are in Tallahassee now. Big impact events just follow you! Expand Haha, but I'm hopefully flying out back to Greensboro around dinnertime tomorrow, so I may not be here for it. I'm cheering the that the landfall keeps on getting pushed a big further into Friday morning so my flight won't get canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 3:37 PM, superjames1992 said: Haha, but I'm hopefully flying out back to Greensboro around dinnertime tomorrow, so I may not be here for it. I'm cheering the that the landfall keeps on getting pushed a big further into Friday morning so my flight won't get canceled. Expand Well GFS came in stronger, west and slower again, tracks right over your crib and then up 95...washout on Friday/Saturday in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 GFS has 4-7" QPF with 30mph gusts across the Carolina's...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I will be right under the L on the latest Euro on the SOuth Carolina coast tomorrow through Monday. I bet 30 MPH winds will help my drive when I am playing golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 3:53 PM, packbacker said: GFS has 4-7" QPF with 30mph gusts across the Carolina's...yikes. Expand How far west into NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 2:54 PM, packbacker said: You really going to MYR this weekend? This thing isn't in a hurry, that's for sure. If the NAM is right (LOL), this would be fun in MYR. Looks like it could be a bit breezy. Expand Yeah man, heading down tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. With the westward shift now underway, I might miss the storm to the east, while you guys clean up! The rainfall the NAM and GFS are printing now for the Carolinas is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 4:40 PM, Cold Rain said: Yeah man, heading down tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. With the westward shift now underway, I might miss the storm to the east, while you guys clean up! The rainfall the NAM and GFS are printing now for the Carolinas is ridiculous. Expand I assume the models have built in the dry slot over Jonesville, SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 4:27 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: How far west into NC? Expand This far via Alan on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 4:40 PM, Cold Rain said: Yeah man, heading down tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. With the westward shift now underway, I might miss the storm to the east, while you guys clean up! The rainfall the NAM and GFS are printing now for the Carolinas is ridiculous. Expand Although I will say that if the track looks like it'll be more west, I may wait to go until Saturday. And then come back on Tuesday. No Snow will have to lock it down for a day without me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 4:42 PM, No snow for you said: I assume the models have built in the dry slot over Jonesville, SC? Expand Lol probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I really hope the west shift and the amount of rain here is wrong. Not going to make for a good last weekend of summer if it happens. Of course, it'll happen now like the models are showing, but come this winter we'll have a system for a big snow storm go too far east. Could we at get a severe storm or tornado threat from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 4:48 PM, Brick Tamland said: I really hope the west shift and the amount of rain here is wrong. Not going to make for a good last weekend of summer if it happens. Of course, it'll happen now like the models are showing, but come this winter we'll have a system for a big snow storm go too far east. Could we at get a severe storm or tornado threat from it? Expand Sure Brick. You can have a tornado. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 UKMET has it just east of Columbia,SC in 60 hours.That'll be a nice,wind driven heavy rainfall for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:01 PM, Wow said: Sure Brick. You can have a tornado. Enjoy. Expand Not saying I want one. Just wondering if it would be a threat this time around. I know sometimes there is a tornado threat with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 12z NAM. Overdone but in line with the GFS with a wet weekend for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:06 PM, Wow said: 12z NAM. Overdone but in line with the GFS with a wet weekend for many of us. Expand And the Canadian agrees (via Alan on Twitter). Just about all of the 12z suite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 What a big shift, lets see if the Euro continues the shift, but with most of the guidance in agreement someone could have flash flooding this weekend with 4-8 inches of rain in a short time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 What are the general winds with that track? 30/s40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:15 PM, Cold Rain said: What are the general winds with that track? 30/s40s? Expand 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:06 PM, Wow said: 12z NAM. Overdone but in line with the GFS with a wet weekend for many of us. Expand On 8/31/2016 at 5:11 PM, packfan98 said: And the Canadian agrees (via Alan on Twitter). Just about all of the 12z suite! Expand Too bad we're not looking for a winter storm because then we'd know those amounts would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:18 PM, Brick Tamland said: Too bad we're not looking for a winter storm because then we'd know those amounts would be wrong. Expand They are wrong. With a trough pushing east, there's no way this thing takes that much of a northerly/westerly track. The surface low is also likely well SE of where currently modeled. See Brad P's most recent vlog (can't embed) for further details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 5:17 PM, Wow said: 30's Expand Thanks. I did check the tropical thread, but I couldn't find any info on the inland winds. I wouldn't think we'd see much sustained above 30s. I could see some gusts into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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