pcbjr Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 On 8/23/2016 at 11:16 PM, Ser Pounce said: It could be a lot worse, but EURO is close enough to Baton Rouge to cause some real trouble yet again. edit: wow, lots of places along that westward track would definitely not appreciate all the extra rain. Cotton has been hit hard in TX from what I've read because of the rain they've had already. It's completely unscientific but I'm still waiting for the turn to the north nearly everything eventually takes. Maybe tomorrow's flight will have more information if they go ahead with it. Would be nice to start narrowing down the list of likely "winners" out of this one. Expand If this thing pans out, there are no winners in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 On 8/23/2016 at 11:40 PM, pcbjr said: If this thing pans out, there are no winners in the game. Expand The only thing we know is we don't know First it needs to get a west wind, then it needs to miss shredderola island and the dry air just to its west. It's not in any hurry to go anywhere fast, so there's plenty of time to wait and watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 12:20 AM, Brick Tamland said: Expand Island straight ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/23/2016 at 11:52 PM, buckeyefan1 said: The only thing we know is we don't know First it needs to get a west wind, then it needs to miss shredderola island and the dry air just to its west. It's not in any hurry to go anywhere fast, so there's plenty of time to wait and watch Expand My point being - no one "wins" with a 'Cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 12:42 AM, pcbjr said: My point being - no one "wins" with a 'Cane. Expand That depends.....there could be "winners" if it dumps enough slow and steady rain to remove area(s) from extreme drought ( I totally understand your point ) My point was to remind everyone that this area of disturbed weather hasn't even formed a low level circulation yet, so take these current model runs with a LARGE grain of salt. Track in the short term will be close to correct, but as for track or intensity past a couple of days.......naso much confidence there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 anyone remember the hype around this one? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Chris_(2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 It's true no one truly wins with a hurricane - the closest I've seen to it was growing up in TX and having a system that was still remotely tropical come through a few times for some serious drought relief. But this isn't like that. If nothing else it's something to track, and see whether it goes poof around Hispaniola like the ones in the last few years did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I think 2 things to focus on now. Will it stay north of Hispanola? If it plows through the middle of it, all bets are off as far as a strong landfalling cane. If it develops faster than projected, it will likely be on the right side of guidance. If development is slower than projected, it will more likely be to the left of guidance. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Does anyone have an update from 00z Euro? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 11:04 AM, tarheelwx said: Does anyone have an update from 00z Euro? TW Expand http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 11:04 AM, tarheelwx said: Does anyone have an update from 00z Euro? TW Expand The Euro doesn't break down the large ridge over the east as quick as previous runs, which in turn shoves the storm further west. Makes landfall around the TX/LA border as a substantial storm. Once inland it moves north through Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 11:37 AM, Disc said: The Euro doesn't break down the large ridge over the east as quick as previous runs, which in turn shoves the storm further west. Makes landfall around the TX/LA border as a substantial storm. Once inland it moves north through Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Expand Only about 900 miles landfall difference between the 2am GFS run. Models will start to converge... someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Not to worried about this threat. The models would have to have the ridge modeled pretty bad at this range to get it to turn up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 0z ECMWF also does not develop it until it clears Florida and exits into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Granted its the NAM but its much further east and stronger with 99L and would imply a much larger threat to Florida assuming its going to go left from there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Tropical storm force winds have been found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 A historic probability perspective: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Huge shift east on Euro.....through the Keys then hard right right up west coast of Florida..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Both UKMET and EURO coming east today,coming in close to the Tampa,Big Bend area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Flooding rains from Miami to Virginia beach on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 6:37 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Both UKMET and EURO coming east today,coming in close to the Tampa,Big Bend area. Expand Any storm that follows that track will either have a small compact core of high winds that affects a small area or be a big sloppy weak mess ( I would guess option 2) .....rainfall would be biggest threat by far and that would mostly be on the east side..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 7:03 PM, downeastnc said: Any storm that follows that track will either have a small compact core of high winds that affects a small area or be a big sloppy weak mess ( I would guess option 2) .....rainfall would be biggest threat by far and that would mostly be on the east side..... Expand Yeah, Euro with 983mb at "landfall"....yawn. I love how much spread is on the EPS and people are hanging on every run on the Euro...this is worse than winter weenies. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 7:15 PM, Jon said: Yeah, Euro with 983mb at "landfall"....yawn. I love how much spread is on the EPS and people are hanging on every run on the Euro...this is worse than winter weenies. haha Expand Yeah kinda hard to get excited about the "Euro" when it changes 300-400 miles every run....not being the "king" right now.....its being just like all the others lol....basically we are back at square one in the don't have a damn clue dept as far as where 99L is gonna go and how big and bad it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Looks like the 12z EPS trying to put it into LA on the mean.. some weak mess possibly. But with that said, the spread is still split across the entire gulf area with some creepers trying to creep up through Florida etc. - In other words, no freakin' clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Slop storms are the norm these days. the remains of finoa look better than 99L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 9:02 PM, Shawn said: Looks like the 12z EPS trying to put it into LA on the mean.. some weak mess possibly. But with that said, the spread is still split across the entire gulf area with some creepers trying to creep up through Florida etc. - In other words, no freakin' clue. Expand Until we get a dominant center and the models get a handle on ridge strength and location it is pretty much a toss up....lets see if the 18Z GFS does anything different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 9:15 PM, downeastnc said: Until we get a dominant center and the models get a handle on ridge strength and location it is pretty much a toss up....lets see if the 18Z GFS does anything different... Expand Very similar through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 18z GFS says hasta la vista baby. very hostile in gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 This may not make it overnight even. 40kt sheer is destroying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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