John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 If my eyes aren't deceiving me, the Canadian came north about 500 miles from 12z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If my eyes aren't deceiving me, the Canadian came north about 500 miles from 12z to 00z. It definitely came north. Still has very little wintry weather in TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 It definitely came north. Still has very little wintry weather in TN It has the most unimpressive precip shield for a gulf low in model history, It had the low 100 miles south of New Orleans to Jacksonville and barely put precip on the coast. I don't buy that precip map with that track. Also, the Euro came north by several hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm really sort of in amazement that the GFS is showing at least a some precip 48 hours out, and hadn't completely lost the idea of qpf over at least parts of the valley this close to the event. I do also wonder as John mentions not trusting precip shield extent as we see every winter under modeled precip shields from Gulf Lows. So what if GFS is right, and the precip shield is also classically under modeled we could be on the heels of a major flizzard... A surprise possible, albeit minor surprise but a surprise nonetheless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Appears the Euro is about on par with the GFS now.... Interesting. though it has the low stronger than the GFS has it modeled, but about in the same position as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Fixing to head out to Maryville for the weekend.Hope it snows out yalls way,least a dusting would be cool,that's rare here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I've actually been in Nashville the past two days. It's been dang dreary here today. Sitting in the food court at Opry Mills while the women folk are shopping, trying to look at the models on my phone. I think this might be a ground duster for some of us, maybe an inch or two in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting...(blue highlight is incidental) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 MRX SPS issued regarding storm: 890WWUS84 KMRX 152019SPSMRXSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN319 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161000-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON319 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 /219 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTTENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA LATESATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ANDSUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST NORTHCAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTERMIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...THEN SPREAD NORTH ACROSSEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLYBE EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSSTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.SNOWFALL OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEEAND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. ACROSS THECENTRAL VALLEY... INCLUDING KNOXVILLE AND MORRISTOWN...SNOWACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END OR DIMINISH BY NOON SUNDAY. THE MAINCONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS SUNDAYMORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FORFURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I find it interesting that they issued the SPS for the entire CWA when they think only east of 75. I believe that is a sort of cover bases to get info out that may change. Can't wait to see the next couple model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I can't believe we still don't have the specifics of this storm sorted out. Frustrating, but exciting nonetheless. Honestly, if we could pick up an inch I would consider it a win. I just want to get on the board at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 MRX AFD: LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PULLING A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVEAND ASSOCIATED JET MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ANDSOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITHTHE JET MAX WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NORTHCAROLINA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS OF EASTTENNESSEE...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2INCHES MOUNTAINS...1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...TO AROUND1/2 INCH KNOXVILLE AND MORRISTOWN. PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING WITHIN THEHWO AND SPS.FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILLPRODUCE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THEAREA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE FAST MOVING AND TYPE OFPRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND A LOT ON LOW PRESSURE TRACK. WILL NEED TOMONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR MID-WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18Z NAM Composite Reflectivity Simulation. Not something I really look at as reliable, but interesting to think about as by 4AM Sunday morning we should all be below or very close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 HUN AFD: THERE`S BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A NWD SHIFT IN THE MODEL BIASES WITHREGARD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE MAKINGITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE WRN GULF LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATESTMODEL SUITES NOW SUGGEST A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THIS ENERGY/MOISTURESPREADING NWD SAT NIGHT...AND PERHAPS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE LOCALAREA...AS SIG COLDER AIR BEGINS TO STREAM NWD INTO THE REGION. THEREMAY BE ENOUGH TRAILING MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIODOF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALBEIT THE CHC WILL BEFAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THIS CHC MAY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATIF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS SAME SCENARIO WITHMORE OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE SPREADING NWD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM IS XPCTED GIVEN A RATHER WARM SOIL TEMP IN PLACEAT THIS POINT. BMX AFD: A PARTIAL PHASE OF THE SHORTWAVES IS NOW INDICATED BY ALLOPERATIONAL MODELS...AND MORE PHASING REMAINS POSSIBLE. WITH THEWAY THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS...WE HAVETO REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOWAND MORE WELL-DEVELOPED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE INLAND DEEPSOUTH. YESTERDAY`S NORTHERN OUTLIERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. NOWTHESE NORTHERN OUTLIERS ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITHSOME MEMBERS DOWN TO 989 MB IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OFMEXICO. WHILE IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY THAT THESE SOLUTIONS WOULDVERIFY...THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THEY MIGHT. ACCORDINGLY WITHTHE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN MODELS...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISEDSUBSTANTIALLY FOR 06-12Z SUNDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM0.01-0.20 INCH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS SITUATION WILLHAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC ANDDIABATIC COOLING IN THE EVENT THAT HEAVIER THAN FORECAST PRECIPFALLS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...WHERE THERMAL PROFILES WOULDSUPPORT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEENINCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL SITUATION TO BE INLESS THAN 48 HOURS OUT...AND ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS IS NEEDEDTO REMOVE THE UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 This is pretty much the NAM's wheelhouse. I hope that precip shield is legit. Was it 2014 that had the nice snow mainly East of 75? I think I got about 2 inches and you guys east and south east of me got 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This was posted on David Aldrich's Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This was posted on David Aldrich's Facebook page. what model did he derive that from ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 what model did he derive that from ?? I'm not sure. He did post a screenshot of the Futurecast (RPM model) at 4 am Sunday showing a line of snow showers before that, so it might be that model. He usually posts the GFS (he's not a fan of the GFS) and Euro models when talking about snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF still showing a half inch for TYS Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z GFS increased the northwest precip shield slightly, especially over w NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The SREF has 11 members showing at least .1 inches of precip. That's 42% of the SREF members. I couldn't get the snow plots to load. If you would of told me back in the summer that we would have a sub 1000mb low tracking across the FL panhandle with enough cold air I would be ecstatic. This is definitely a weird storm. I don't remember many storms with this track not giving us snow. 12z GFS is really close for us and the NAM is heading in the right direction. Unfortunately we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah there is an uptick on snow for SREF from 3z to 9z. Knoxville mean is around half an inch with a big dog of 2.5, while Tri-cities mean is a little less than an inch with a big dog around 4.5 inches. 2 to 3 times as much as was on the 3z. Hopefully the trends continue as the event approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Here's Robert's facebook write-up: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1204107119619341&id=356106867752708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Here's Robert's facebook write-up: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1204107119619341&id=356106867752708 I think he forgot to mention Tennessee in there. Otherwise, good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18Z NAM composite reflectivity take it for what its worth. I'm guessing warm wet ground and relatively drier air in place (though currently 71% humidity imby). If you went with just the composite reflectivity of the NAM we would get several hours of light snow across a large portion of the valley, even moderate at times the further east you are. This is going to be very interesting to see play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18Z NAM composite reflectivity take it for what its worth. I'm guessing warm wet ground and relatively drier air in place (though currently 71% humidity imby). If you went with just the composite reflectivity of the NAM we would get several hours of light snow across a large portion of the valley, even moderate at times the further east you are. This is going to be very interesting to see play out. Yeah humidity is 85% here in JC. Seems pretty humid for being 36 degrees. The air definitively doesn't feel dry here. Clouds on satellite are coming from the Gulf. This will be very interesting to see play out indeed. Especially considering the model mayhem beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm thinking that at least a dusting is likely even down here tomorrow. GFS has 0.03 qpf falling as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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