MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Eps doesnt have anything. Onto the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well I am just going to put it out there the 18z GFS is the wackey uncle and probably will be a bomb only for the 00z to take it away the Roller coaster ride is real.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The ECMWF looks like it might be missing it, for two reasons 1) It advects a lot of cold air on Saturday putting the baroclinic zone well east of NYC 2) It also make the center of the vortex much wider then the GFS and squashes the short in the southern branch The trend so far this winter in the model biases is that the vortex tends to be forecasted to be too broad and thus too much cold air is advected east into our region, if these biases are true for this storm NYC may just get it. It is still too early to tell giving how poorly the models do in this kind of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS is quicker with the southern SW this run so I wouldn't expect it to be as good as 12z. It's still not even on the same planet as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS is going to be way OTS and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The PV is flatter, the energy is too fast and weaker. Not enough time for heights to rebuild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The PV is flatter, the energy is too fast and weaker. Not enough time for heights to rebuild. Yeah, ejects WAY too quickly and just flat. This is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah, ejects WAY too quickly and just flat. This is over. Over 4 days out? Umm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 On to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah this is probably over. The only model that had a storm is now way OTS and the culprit is the PV flattening out which is exactly what the GGEM and ECMWF does. The only difference is that the Euro presses even further South and shears out the energy so you don't get the system offshore. We have some time with this one, but that wasn't a very good run and you can't really dismiss it because the GFS was the only model that showed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Over 4 days out? Umm Want to make a bet? EURO has trended away from this being amped and thw GFS changed negatively (in a big way)now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.