JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 There is no way the Euro ensembles will be south of the Op, it's virtually impossible based on what the Op run does to the shortwave. They may not be a whole lot north of it though I meant south of GFS and UKMet, sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GSP is interested, at least. Let's see how long it lasts. AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS 00Z SUNDAY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS ABOUT WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT ENDS...WITH SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THE OUTSET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRYING TO CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH INDUCES SURFACE LOW FORMATION THAT SPREADS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A LESS IMPRESSIVE WIGGLE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND IT IS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES ARE HUGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WE REMAIN DRY AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS FLATTER...AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF WITH SOME PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS IS VERY DIFFERENT. BECAUSE OF THE MORE NORTHERLY FORMATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THE SURFACE LOW IS ABLE TO REALLY WIND UP WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS SOLUTION IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...ALONG THE GA/SC PIEDMONT...BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME QPF AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SO WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AND BELOW FREEZING ELSEWHERE...P-TYPE WOULD BE A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THOSE PIEDMONT AREAS AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE GEFS IS WET AS WELL AND LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.. TEMPERATURES MAKE P-TYPE FAIRLY EASY...WITH AT LEAST A SNOW/RAIN MIX IF NOT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT QPF IS THE BIG CONCERN. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...WITH THE WET GFS/GEFS AND DRY ECMWF...TO REALLY PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION AND ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY QPF AT THIS TIME /AND THUS NO SNOW ACCUMS/. THIS EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY REEVALUATED WITH LATER PACKAGES...SO STAY TUNED FOR ANY CHANGES. BEYOND THAT...PROBABLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH BLUSTERY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND 20S ELSEWHERE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AT THAT POINT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE COLD/WIND CHILL ISSUES IN THE HWO. ZONAL FLOW TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH HINTS AT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EPS looks better than the OP that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EPS looks better than the OP that's for sure.not much Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EPS is not far off from the GFS...It has a weak Miller A but too far off the coast. This run of the EPS should give some hope that maybe the GFS is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hardly any improvement from Euro Ens from it's last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Am I seeing things? EPS looked like it roughly went this direction with the low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 looks like the mean takes it south and it falls apart, idk.. maybe south/central fl gets the track if there is anything alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 what low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Interesting. eps_slp_lows_east_16.png eps_slp_lows_east_17.png not as amped as gfs but certainly not over cuba like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Verrrry interesting from EPS... Definitely makes me think GFS knows something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the ensemble mean looks to pop a 1006mb close to mexico coast.. and slowly destroy it on it's way to cuba.. i think.. not the best maps... some members are well North though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Verrrry interesting from EPS... Definitely makes me think GFS knows something If GFS scores the coup, I owe it a steak dinner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah that more closely resembles the previous GFS runs with a weak low staying offshore. That's better than nothing, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS, GFS ensembles, UKMET, CMC, and even a good number of the Euro ensembles were all consistent on bringing Joaquin into NC/VA at this range. Only the operational Euro held steady on an out-to-sea solution, and it won. And that's just a recent, stark example -- the Euro isn't called the king for nothing. When in doubt in the medium-range, go with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What does nogaps say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the ensemble mean looks to pop a 1006mb close to mexico coast.. and slowly destroy it on it's way to cuba.. i think.. not the best maps... some members are well North though Nice cluster just off of Savannah. Several sub 1000mb lows at that. Definitely a good baby step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If GFS scores the coup, I owe it a steak dinner!and I'll eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If GFS scores the coup, I owe it a steak dinner! I think you mean a crow dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice cluster just off of Savannah. Several sub 1000mb lows at that. Definitely a good baby step Looks like 15 or so in the area that would be good to get something going up the coast/for NC especially. around 7 or so maybe too far south. 22 members with something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The polar vortex dropping down into Northern Michigan and the flow around it needs to work just right with any storm, else all will get quickly shunted east out to sea. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Hopefully everyone will get their snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ensemble mean on the Euro is 0.1 for the majority of NC.. bit more around the mountains (0.5-1.0). 0.1 or so in parts of Northern GA (north of ATL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ensemble mean on the Euro is 0.1 for the majority of NC.. bit more around the mountains. 0.1 or so in parts of Northern GA (north of ATL) What was it for the 0z run? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What was it for the 0z run? Thanks! Actually, not really much difference. Maybe a bit more in the mountains/bigger area this run vs 0z... and a tad tiny tiny bit more further east into NC.. but overall a copy of each other for the mean snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS, GFS ensembles, UKMET, CMC, and even a good number of the Euro ensembles were all consistent on bringing Joaquin into NC/VA at this range. Only the operational Euro held steady on an out-to-sea solution, and it won. And that's just a recent, stark example -- the Euro isn't called the king for nothing. When in doubt in the medium-range, go with the Euro. If it was the Euro that was showing the snowy, northern solution and the GFS was the one supressed south, everyone would be discounting the GFS right now and getting their sleds out, calling the Euro king. These forums during the winter season are excellent examples of confirmation bias. Even Robert replied to a FB comment saying how the Euro didn't see a storm during the Thanksgiving weekend 3 years ago and using that as an example of how the Euro can be wrong, ignoring the continuous years of the Euro being right 75-80% of the time in this range, nevermind it's not even nearly the same synoptic set up(one is in late November, the other in the middle of January). It's hard to get excited about a threat when the Euro shows such a suppressed solution. Euro must start trending north tonight or tomorrow afternoon or I'd say it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It seems it just depends on the speed of the system. The GFS is faster with it, and the Euro is slower and it gets suppressed. Maybe the Euro is just off a bit with the speed. That would make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Am I seeing things? EPS looked like it roughly went this direction with the low.... It did. There are barely any differences between the 00z and 12z EPS. Some differences I can see is on the low location members map at 12z 1/17, on the 12z EPS there are many more members hanging back around gulf/fl/sc than what it appeared on the 00z (which had a tight clustered group way off the coast to the NE). What this run of the EPS tells me is 3 things: 1) The super suppressed solution of the euro op is most likely wrong 2) the eps favored timing is slower rather than faster, as demonstrated by the trend away from the OTS low clustering at 12z 1/17. 3) the cold at least seems figured out for the most part as far as the eps is concerned so any major HP adjustments will be demonstrated simply by a different timing or track, not that the HP trends stronger the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS, GFS ensembles, UKMET, CMC, and even a good number of the Euro ensembles were all consistent on bringing Joaquin into NC/VA at this range. Only the operational Euro held steady on an out-to-sea solution, and it won. And that's just a recent, stark example -- the Euro isn't called the king for nothing. When in doubt in the medium-range, go with the Euro. But hasn't the Euro has been overdoing the cold in recent weeks? No way in the world do I think this storm will as suppressed as it's showing. I am not saying the GFS is correct but I don't think the Euro is either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What does the NAVGEM say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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