griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The problem with the Euro is that it doesn't even have an event to trend north....it's a total squash job...so, to get it to the GFS solution would be quite the turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Until the euro is on board we have to be very skeptical. I hope it's wrong but it's been right so many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't the UKMET the model that handles Southern energy well along with potential phasing? Has anyone been able to get a look with the interaction on it? Maybe that is the model to be focusing on this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guys, it is all the timing and strength of the southern vort. On the GFS it is a little stronger overall, therefore it rounds the bend in Texas more as it 'feels' the influence of the northern branch. It is also a little bit quicker, therefore the trough captures the vort as oppose to squashing it, as happens on the European. The set ups overall are actually quite similar, it's just small scale differences are making huge tangible weather differences at this time between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guys, it is all the timing and strength of the southern vort. On the GFS it is a little stronger overall, therefore it rounds the bend in Texas more as it 'feels' the influence of the northern branch. It is also a little bit quicker, therefore the trough captures the vort as oppose to squashing it, as happens on the European. The set ups overall are actually quite similar, it's just small scale differences are making huge tangible weather differences at this time between the models. So the major difference is their handling of the pacific shortwave, which won't be onshore for another 36-48 hours. So we could conceivably be in the dark until then, I suppose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guys, it is all the timing and strength of the southern vort. On the GFS it is a little stronger overall, therefore it rounds the bend in Texas more as it 'feels' the influence of the northern branch. It is also a little bit quicker, therefore the trough captures the vort as oppose to squashing it, as happens on the European. The set ups overall are actually quite similar, it's just small scale differences are making huge tangible weather differences at this time between the models. In addition, the Euro is dropping the northern stream low/trough into the upper midwest faster and farther south, crushing our wave...but yeah, small differences here have a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guys, it is all the timing and strength of the southern vort. On the GFS it is a little stronger overall, therefore it rounds the bend in Texas more as it 'feels' the influence of the northern branch. It is also a little bit quicker, therefore the trough captures the vort as oppose to squashing it, as happens on the European. The set ups overall are actually quite similar, it's just small scale differences are making huge tangible weather differences at this time between the models. Sow hat do you do when those small differences make the outcome so different? Just wait until one starts caving to the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I miss reading the good old days when threads were started when the EURO agreed and the system was under 72 hours and not a minute more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I miss reading the good old days when threads were started when the EURO agreed and the system was under 72 hours and not a minute more. That was back when the Euro was actually King. He has been dethroned since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Somebody said that, but that was not what Bastardi actually said at all. He said that his concern was growing for the first accumulating snow of the season from DC to New York City Sunday night into Monday. This of course was referring to this storm.JB also said yesterdsy he thought this may be the storm to get all started but did not elaborate too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So the major difference is their handling of the pacific shortwave, which won't be onshore for another 36-48 hours. So we could conceivably be in the dark until then, I suppose?Yes! Yes! Yes! Exactly. Why worry about the details now is my question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Dang Jon you know we goings to worry about the details Yes! Yes! Yes! Exactly. Why worry about the details now is my question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't the UKMET the model that handles Southern energy well along with potential phasing? Has anyone been able to get a look with the interaction on it? Maybe that is the model to be focusing on this time around. I've been leaning in the direction of the UKMET being a more likely outcome, but who knows. EURO (or GFS) could very well be right. I remember there was a winterstorm either February 2014 or February 2015 one where around this same range the EURO started following in UKMET's lead, however I've seen the vice versa happen too. I feel a little relieved that the 12z UKMET stayed steady as she goes, had it gone more south/suppressed like the EURO I would be a lot more concerned. EDIT: FWIW, I believe 72 hrs and under is UKMET's wheelhouse when it comes to situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is rather have the Euro outcome, as opposed to the white rain on the GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see some say that the EURO is no longer "King". When did this happen or is it just because it doesn't show what all of us wants? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I miss reading the good old days when threads were started when the EURO agreed and the system was under 72 hours and not a minute more. I've been around here for 15 years and that's never been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see some say that the EURO is no longer "King". When did this happen or is it just because it doesn't show what all of us wants? Serious question. I would say the separation between the GFS and the EURO isn't what it used to be but the EURO is still superior. I will be utterly shocked to see the GFS right after seeing what the EURO just showed. I've been on these forums since 2004 and have seen this situation too many times. The GFS will likely cave and we will be left high and dry. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see some say that the EURO is no longer "King". When did this happen or is it just because it doesn't show what all of us wants? Serious question. European is still the best model for the medium range. However, that doesn't mean it will win every single battle every single time. It just wins most of them. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would say the separation between the GFS and the EURO isn't what it used to be but the EURO is still superior. I will be utterly shocked to see the GFS right after seeing what the EURO just showed. I've been on these forums since 2004 and have seen this situation too many times. The GFS will likely cave and we will be left high and dry. I hope I'm wrong. Unfortunately I have to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Regarding the cold after that storm on the GFS, it looks like the ensembles aren't really supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see some say that the EURO is no longer "King". When did this happen or is it just because it doesn't show what all of us wants? Serious question.That never happened. Euro is still verifying better than the para GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Unfortunately I have to agree with you. I have to say it is intriguing to see them so far apart this close (relatively) to the storm. I really am excited to see how it turns out. It reminds me of a college football game where a huge underdog gets up on a national powerhouse early. Then the second half comes and that 14-0 lead goes to 55-14 deficit. I have a feeling that's how its going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know the Euro used to have the tendency to hold the s/w in the Southwest too long. Anyone know if that is still the case? If so I think that is one of the issues with the Euro.... the s/w moves slower allowing the energy diving in the from the north to press to far south before the s/w is ejected east. This causes the s/w to be suppressed and not able to round the corner and bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I have to say it is intriguing to see them so far apart this close (relatively) to the storm. I really am excited to see how it turns out. It reminds me of a college football game where a huge underdog gets up on a national powerhouse early. Then the second half comes and that 14-0 lead goes to 55-14 deficit. I have a feeling that's how its going to be. The NAM being so flat continues to lead me to believe the GFS is wrong for now. The NAM is rarely flat at 84 hours vs the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Anyone want to venture a guess on what the EPS is going to show? I'm thinking it will be similar to the UKMET. Flatter and south of the GFS but not taking a side trip to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Made a Facebook post with 3 different time stamps btwn the 12z runs of the EURO And GFS today. Its a long post, but I won't charge ya...LOL I actually think the GFS could *dare I say* be a little better right now with this...Why?...well, its a progressive model, and we are def. in a progressive flow, EURO may be holding on that energy a bit long from kicking it out. Honestly, if the DOC would kick that energy out a bit quicker...the EURO would likely** have a different solution. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Anyone want to venture a guess on what the EPS is going to show? I'm thinking it will be similar to the UKMET. Flatter and south of the GFS but not taking a side trip to Cuba. I'd say south of the GFS, and the GFS will make the south trend in the next few runs. Maybe we can meet in the middle and get token flakes. EDIT: typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Interesting comment from WxSouth concerning the Euro versus GFS war. (And, no, that's not me, but I didn't think I should just plaster some private citizen's name on a weatherboard without their permission, so I blacked out their name and image.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'd say south, and the GFS will make the south trend in the next few runs. Maybe we can meet in the middle and get token flakes. There is no way the Euro ensembles will be south of the Op, it's virtually impossible based on what the Op run does to the shortwave. They may not be a whole lot north of it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The NAM being so flat continues to lead me to believe the GFS is wrong for now. The NAM is rarely flat at 84 hours vs the GFS Yea 9 times out of 10 NAM is amps these up into a superstorms. EPS is running so if it shows the same thing it's going to be hard to take the GFS too serious...but given climo and the storm just before it, it kind of makes me think the GFS may be on to something. I just have a hard time buying the big suppression scenario. Last week the Euro showed the same thing while the GFS was hitting the brakes with the big arctic push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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