PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 WRAL will roll with the Euro... RAH will still be hesitant and skeptical until Euro climbson board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yep, Euro an utter disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Too funny. The GFS goes more amped, while the Euro goes more suppressed. Total opposites just 3 1/2 days out. lol yep..a lot worse than the 0z run. gfs and euro are on two different planets . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yep, Euro an utter disaster. So who to believe? The consistent GFS or the wavering Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Would a middle of the road solution with the more amped GFS and the suppressed Euro work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Literally sends our low to Cuba. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Would a middle of the road solution with the more amped GFS and the suppressed Euro work out? the euro is so weak aloft/crushed that a middle of the road solution would still be a complete loser for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guess we can hope the Euro is drunk. Seems going that far south goes against everything we have seen here since the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Literally sends our low to Cuba. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Sending the low that far south in itself should be enough to toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In this scenario, common sense says to LEAN toward the model that has been the most CONSISTENT.. So which one has been the most CONSISTENT, run to run? The GFS or EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Literally sends our low to Cuba. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk What low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In this scenario, common sense says to LEAN toward the model that has been the most CONSISTENT.. So which one has been the most CONSISTENT, run to run? The GFS or EURO? I think the GFS has been the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In this scenario, common sense says to LEAN toward the model that has been the most CONSISTENT.. So which one has been the most CONSISTENT, run to run? The GFS or EURO? The GFS Parallel for sure, but that doesn't necessarily inspire much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What low?Haha it's there but squashed into oblivion and the soap opera continues. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sending the low that far south in itself should be enough to toss it I just don't see it going that far south. Doesn't fit the pattern we have had since fall with all the moisture coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This is a joke right. Someone just posted earlier that he said this was no big deal Somebody said that, but that was not what Bastardi actually said at all. He said that his concern was growing for the first accumulating snow of the season from DC to New York City Sunday night into Monday. This of course was referring to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 oy. sends it to cuba. maybe the euro is holding the sw back too long? i dont envy forecasters, 3.5 days out and not a clue what will happen. gfs has been consistent i'll give it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I just don't see it going that far south. Doesn't fit the pattern we have had since fall with all the moisture coming north.The problem is the huge arctic high coming down suppression everything. It's would not surprise me if this was the case and the system is very supposed. Cannot rule anything out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 oy. sends it to cuba. maybe the euro is holding the sw back too long? i dont envy forecasters, 3.5 days out and not a clue what will happen. gfs has been consistent i'll give it that. Which one do you go with when they are so different? You'd think by now one would start caving to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I just don't see it going that far south. Doesn't fit the pattern we have had since fall with all the moisture coming north. Funny, I have been saying the same thing honestly, not that I am trusting the GFS at all, besides, we usually see a northwest trend as we get closer to the actual event. Whether that happens with this system, well, to be determined. Perhaps the evening runs will lend some consistency to either solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS Parallel for sure, but that doesn't necessarily inspire much confidence. Within 5 days, none of them are that bad. I would not discount the GFS at this point though. The GFS has been consistently showing something, the Euro has been consistent in not showing anything, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 lol yep..a lot worse than the 0z run. gfs and euro are on two different planets . Thought it was a bad sign when the Euro Ens didn't improve last night.....but then the GFS does it's thing this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Whats more interesting is that the GEFS strongly agrees that a storm is there.. will the EURO ensemble look better than the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would hesitate with gfs being most consistent. GFS also consistently brought a landfalling Joaquin into the east coast at this time frame last September. Just because euro is wavering doesn't mean it is completely wrong. Edit: September not December lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS is still consistent with the storm path. The Euro looked to be trending to the GFS but then got squashed. It is common sense to go with the consistent model. Not because it looks the best, but because it's consistent. If the GFS has 1 run of major suppression, then we can call the game. But until that happens, I think the best bet is to stick with the GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Which one do you go with when they are so different? You'd think by now one would start caving to the other. might be my inner talking but so many events this fall/winter have trended north as we got closer (like this lp system friday). but who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would LEAN to the one that is most CONSISTENTLY right...King EURO for sure at this range until otherwise. No reason to hug the GFS just because it's been consistently wrong in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 but I think the runs tonight and noon tomorrow will decide it's fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I disagree. I think it could fit the pattern. The PNA is building in stronger forcing the HP to dig as well as our vort and energy for this storm. So a stronger ridge=southern solution. We have the CMC and EURO both suppressing the storm, but is that such a bad thing? We all know how it is when we are praying for a SE trend lol. I would bet the GFS is a little too strong as it does tend to "overshoot" or "overdo" a trend only to bring it back a little a few runs later. Also we have to pay attention to this first MASSIVE low pressure in the next couple days as it is still pivotal for our Sunday storm. All in all right now there is still too many variables for the models to sort out. Its not weird at all that the models have not aligned yet. I don't expect them to find a unanimous solution until Friday as the first system is moving out IF they ever totally agree. Right now we have a very firm GFS camp NAM also at 84 is similar to GFS. And the CMC and EURO are suppressing, but they both are shaky and not consistent. This is exactly where we want to be at this point. We have 2 days left before several variables (first storm, Vort entering US etc.) are out of the picture so I would say we have 1-2 days of runs for the models to get this ironed out. Perfect place to be. After all you guys always say you would rather see it suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 and I honestly don't think the EURO is king right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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