NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS Ens mean has a good storm signal....low right off Savannah...more amped this run That's about the benchmark after crossing Florida gom coastline for you, wow. Me. Hopefully it doesn't come rolling across south GA and off above charleston. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's also a lot better than what we've been doing. +1. Chasing patterns got real old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 +1. Chasing patterns got real old That and the bickering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here you go NCSNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here you go NCSNOW While we are talking about the Ensemble..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One other thing, if the PNA trends stronger, this is allow the s/w to dig farther south and slow down. That'll give the HP time to move in. Noticing it on some of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 WPC Sfc Plot for Sunday 7AM and discussion... "CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN DESIRED FOR PCPN COVERAGE/TYPE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC SAT-SUN DUE TO WIDE VARIATION IN PSBL TRACKS FOR TRAILING LOW PRES. A MORE NRN TRACK AS SEEN IN SOME GFS RUNS/GEFS MEMBERS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW IN THE NRN PART OF THE PCPN SHIELD." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So I'll jump on board the weenie train here. A few reasons why I think the GFS has the right solution. First of all the strong Nino and past month argues for a storms to take more of a Miller A approach. Second, the Euro has kept a low, just keeps it's suppressed. We all know how that typically goes. Finally last year with the GFS PARA it seemed to do well IIRC with systems in that 84 - 140 range. Would not be shocked if the Euro "caves" to the GFS solution just a little less amped. Finally, if the GFS is correct there is big potential here don't get too hung up on temps. If that high gets in temps aren't gonna be a problem IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One other thing, if the PNA trends stronger, this is allow the s/w to dig farther south and slow down. That'll give the HP time to move in. Noticing it on some of the ensemble members. PNA Ridge was definitely stronger on the 12z GFS compared to the 06z, too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So I'll jump on board the weenie train here. A few reasons why I think the GFS has the right solution. First of all the strong Nino and past month argues for a storms to take more of a Miller A approach. Second, the Euro has kept a low, just keeps it's suppressed. We all know how that typically goes. Finally last year with the GFS PARA it seemed to do well IIRC with systems in that 84 - 140 range. Would not be shocked if the Euro "caves" to the GFS solution just a little less amped. Finally, if the GFS is correct there is big potential here don't get too hung up on temps. If that high gets stronger temps aren't gonna be a problem IMHO. Agree on the storm. I have liked this period for a storm all along. We've seen these systems turn out to be noteworthy all throughout fall and winter so far. Squashing usually hasn't been the problem. I think there will be precipitation. My concern is the source for cold air to be advecting into the storm. The setup up north could change, as you say. It's good to have something to talk watch at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Got a similarity to Jan 22, 1987 with the lack of HP, just a deep mb low racing up the the coast.. but not as much energy wrapped in as that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members has a 988mb low sitting off the GA/SC coast. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GEFS control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members has a 988mb low sitting off the GA/SC coast. Wow. You should at least feed us some fantasy snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members has a 988mb low sitting off the GA/SC coast. Wow. Would not be shocked to see this trending stronger...figure 992 might be realistic. I like the setup here..and if it hits during the Panthers game, well that would just be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's sexy, Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Another member.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Holy woah, that same member next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice knowin' ya Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As of now the RDU crew probably wants the GFS and the ATL GSP Crew probably wants the ukmet, or something like that. Again the closer you are to I20 the sub 1000mb lows don't usually work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Holy woah, that same member next frame.. Holy C#@^P, You might want to push the time frame for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Holy woah, that same member next frame.. That looks like even Myrtle beach and the sc coast has a chance at snow. Is this frame early Monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 5 days is still a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 5 days is still a long time. Good thing we're only 3-3.5 away then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 5 days is still a long time. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Exactly We're like 3.5 days away from precip onset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EURO ain't gonna cut it. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Too funny. The GFS goes more amped, while the Euro goes more suppressed. Total opposites just 3 1/2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EC still looks supressed st 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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