FLO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Interesting he says the "Carolinas". GFS Leaves almost all of South Carolina and about half of North Carolina without snow. We'll see what the Euro does with it. Ive come to the conclusion when someone says the Carolinas they mean NC. Unless they specifically mention SC I don't get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snowlover91 sent me this sounding for RDU at height of storm. Sounding indicates heavy wet snow for Raleigh throughout storm. Also the PGV sounding is extremely close to snow just too warm. Wouldn't put much weight on snow maps right now. According to the soundings there would be more snow for rdu and maybe east toward Pgv image.png Yeah there is plenty of cold air really close to the surface this isn't typical though for a strong bombing low, usually you expect to see some strong warm air advection on the lower levels as the low cranks in that Atlantic air.....that's said that's a darn good looking sounding all things considered and would be easily overcome with rates.....would be good ole Carolina concrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Who has the ukie? Looks well off the coast at 96...not as amped as last night...GFS on a bit of an island right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Who has the ukie? Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks well off the coast at 96...not as amped as last night...GFS on a bit of an island right nowwell that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snowlover91 sent me this sounding for RDU at height of storm. Sounding indicates heavy wet snow for Raleigh throughout storm. Also the PGV sounding is extremely close to snow just too warm. Wouldn't put much weight on snow maps right now. According to the soundings there would be more snow for rdu and maybe east toward Pgv image.png hm...that makes me feel a little better, but still rdu is right on the line. verbatim this run would have a tight cutoff for decent accums and mix/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Pack. where is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What's going on here? Usually the gfs is too flat and out to sea, now it's the most amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 where is he? On his break, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 hm...that makes me feel a little better, but still rdu is right on the line. verbatim this run would have a tight cutoff for decent accums and mix/rain. RDU is usually always right on the line, though. Just glad to see there is a chance. Could end up all rain, or could end up with a decent amount of snow. That's almost always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Also here is PGV see how close it is? Won't take much at all. Snow maps won't pick up on the details of a storm too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks well off the coast at 96...not as amped as last night...GFS on a bit of an island right now Granted the GFS started on an island that everyone/thing is jumping too right now. i'm ok with it on an island imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What's going on here? Usually the gfs is too flat and out to sea, now it's the most amped. No clue, it's the bizzaro world, evidently. The snapshot from the UK looks nice (regarding low placement) for western NC, but not central and east. Edit: Though I have never seen such an unimpressive 500 map for a 994 low...... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe the Euro will have the same solution but colder. Isn't the GFS known for having temps too warm? Models suck in borderline situations because they do not resolve evaporative cooling. So if the MOS or numerical output has a high of 39 and the precip moves in 19z the model usually sees it as rain even if the dewpoint is 20 and it will wet bulb down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Who has the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Granted the GFS started on an island that everyone/thing is jumping too right now. i'm ok with it on an island imo. Canadian is unable to locate this island the GFS speaks of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Granted the GFS started on an island that everyone/thing is jumping too right now. i'm ok with it on an island imo. Repeating myself but GFS has had the hot hand with farther north / warmer solutions of late (earlier to catch on)....we'll see. Here's the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thanks. It looks like the ukie is a miss, don't see the euro coming in with a gfs like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Upstate gets the nose...again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS Ens mean has a good storm signal....low right off Savannah...more amped this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Canadian is unable to locate this island the GFS speaks of It got caught up in a riptide and it's taking a little longer, but it'll catch a wave and bring it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks well off the coast at 96...not as amped as last night...GFS on a bit of an island right now Yeah, i would urge caution about getting too excited per gfs. I've been hopeful about this system for a few days now that it could produce some light snows across the southeast but there there isn't much support out there for this run of the gfs. Plus it could be suffering from convective feedback issues like it has been the last few runs which is not helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS looks really good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thanks. It looks like the ukie is a miss, don't see the euro coming in with a gfs like solution. Ukie looks like a southern slider Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Trusting the GFS when it's by itself is weenie suicide. This is gonna blow up in our faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Trusting the GFS when it's by itself is weenie suicide. This is gonna blow up in our faces. Possibly, but it's a more plausible scenario than wishing for a mid-Atlantic storm to trend south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Trusting the GFS when it's by itself is weenie suicide. This is gonna blow up in our faces. The GFS got us to this point, so that's already rare.I'm going against the odds. Tonight is that lottery drawing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS looks really good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Better than 6z. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Possibly, but it's a more plausible scenario than wishing for a mid-Atlantic storm to trend south It's also a lot better than what we've been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's also a lot better than what we've been doing. Absolutely, just to be in the conversation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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