superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Simulated radar http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_9.png That is not simulated radar, Brick. That's basically simulated infrared satellite imagery. That being said, it does have a bit of a comma head look, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is not simulated radar, Brick. That's basically simulated infrared satellite imagery. That being said, it does have a bit of a comma head look, which is nice. Lmao I was gonna say the same thing but I admire bricks excitement about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That's a deal breaker right there! When best case scenario was 37 or 38, we can't afford a 5 degree bust high today! Game over! I swear you have broken the record for "game over" comments for 1 storm threat. It's absolutely ridiculous when you're on every single page for 3 days with a game over comment. You've provided zero to this thread. A "bust" on the high temps means nothing for the storm, too many times we have busted on the low end before a close call storm and it still didn't matter, this is no different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 We have seen temps must warmer than this here the day before we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Very nice looking. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 thanks Brick, i just got on here to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I swear you have broken the record for "game over" comments for 1 storm threat. It's absolutely ridiculous when you're on every single page for 3 days with a game over comment. You've provided zero to this thread. A "bust" on the high temps means nothing for the storm, too many times we have busted on the low end before a close call storm and it still didn't matter, this is no different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It was 62 before the 2/2013 storm which put down almost 3" in york and mecklenburg counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I swear you have broken the record for "game over" comments for 1 storm threat. It's absolutely ridiculous when you're on every single page for 3 days with a game over comment. You've provided zero to this thread. A "bust" on the high temps means nothing for the storm, too many times we have busted on the low end before a close call storm and it still didn't matter, this is no different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk What has this provided to the topic , thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 15z SREF is pretty blah. Then again, the SREFs are all over the place over the last day, so whatever. That WRF-NMM map posted above is nice!!! As far as temperatures go today, I have seen temperatures be very warm (in the 50s/60s) the day prior to a lot of good snowstorms here, so it really doesn't bother me. Preferably, I'd like to have arctic air in place, but we rarely do. People obsess over temperatures and dew points the day prior to a lot of storms and I rarely notice it makes a difference either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I swear you have broken the record for "game over" comments for 1 storm threat. It's absolutely ridiculous when you're on every single page for 3 days with a game over comment. You've provided zero to this thread. A "bust" on the high temps means nothing for the storm, too many times we have busted on the low end before a close call storm and it still didn't matter, this is no different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Agree, getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 not worrying about temps, superstorm of 93 i was in the 50s the day before the storm and then i ended up with 17inches the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Y'all guys do realize that for most of the real snow events when it was warm the day before, there was a legitimate mechanism to cool the atmosphere down, right? Not saying it can't happen this time, but with this weak system and lack of cold push, the lower we start the day tomorrow, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Y'all guys do realize that for most of the real snow events when it was warm the day before, there was a legitimate mechanism to cool the atmosphere down, right? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 True SJ and Queen. Forget the year but I was living in Roxboro,Nc and it was the end of Nov. That weak ul that caused the earliest snow for Chareslton and MB Sc. But that day climbed near 60 before lunch and 30s by 4 with snow flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 yes I don't recall for sure, but I *think* the day before the Jan 2000 storm was warm. We had an Arctic front move through, though. Wish we had one of those now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I swear you have broken the record for "game over" comments for 1 storm threat. It's absolutely ridiculous when you're on every single page for 3 days with a game over comment. You've provided zero to this thread. A "bust" on the high temps means nothing for the storm, too many times we have busted on the low end before a close call storm and it still didn't matter, this is no different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk +1 I think we could possibly be in for an over performer guys. I remember last year I got 3in with a 20% chance of flurries from GSP. I will be keeping a close eye on hrrr/short range models, going to be an interesting 24hrs. I think some Lee side enhancement is very possible, just depends on were that banding sets up. I think 1-3+ is possible foothills/NW Piedmont. Mountains 2-4+ by Monday morning after some NWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good to see the nmm turned around, that's huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Y'all guys do realize that for most of the real snow events when it was warm the day before, there was a legitimate mechanism to cool the atmosphere down, right? Not saying it can't happen this time, but with this weak system and lack of cold push, the lower we start the day tomorrow, the better. I agree but that wasn't the point I was making. Just because a model was too low for its forecasted highs likely doesn't have an effect on the outcome same as a model that busts too high on forecast temps usually doesn't have an effect on the outcome of the system. Many a storm was forecast to be 33 and rain and folks were 2-3 degrees below forecast lows to still end up being 33 and rain when all was said and done. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That's a thing of beauty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Later sref (15z) an improvement for Rdu. Mean is .63" with most members giving at least a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It was 62 before the 2/2013 storm which put down almost 3" in york and mecklenburg counties. That was a crazy day. It got up to around 40-42 here, but dropped within a matter of minutes to below freezing with very heavy snow and thunder. It literally went from rain to having snow everywhere on the ground within 2-3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I agree but that wasn't the point I was making. Just because a model was too low for its forecasted highs likely doesn't have an effect on the outcome same as a model that busts too high on forecast temps usually doesn't have an effect on the outcome of the system. Many a storm was forecast to be 33 and rain and folks were 2-3 degrees below forecast lows to still end up being 33 and rain when all was said and done. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Oh I hear you. Completely agree. I wasn't trying to compare the model's forecasting of today to what it's showing for tomorrow....just merely saying that because it's warm the day before one snowstorm doesn't mean anything when the next event comes along if the things influencing atmosphere are different. Hopefully, the skies stay clear and we cool off tomorrow so that some of us are at least in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That's a deal breaker right there! When best case scenario was 37 or 38, we can't afford a 5 degree bust high today! Game over! Not a deal breaker. I've seen 70 degrees a day before significant ice storms here. It may mean however that a little extra qpf goes into cooling the column. We will have to see where temps, DP depressions are around this evening as well as when clouds roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF and NMM still support some possible morning Atlanta flurries. Nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well, the NAM has some dynamic cooling aloft. Below 0 850's along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I agree but that wasn't the point I was making. Just because a model was too low for its forecasted highs likely doesn't have an effect on the outcome same as a model that busts too high on forecast temps usually doesn't have an effect on the outcome of the system. Many a storm was forecast to be 33 and rain and folks were 2-3 degrees below forecast lows to still end up being 33 and rain when all was said and done. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, that's basically what I was getting at. --- Looks like the 18z NAM might be about to do some NAM'ing. Trough looks better early on. EDIT: Good snow up and down I-85 at hr 18-21. The Skew-T look fine for GSO with a cold column throughout aside from around freezing at the surface. A bit warmer in CLT, but still looks good to me, as well. Light rain for RDU so far with 850-900 mb above freezing. Looks like it probably ends as snow, though. GSP is really close to getting it good, but the surface is a bit iffy. Comparison of 18z vs. 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I've seen a few flakes here in Boone over the past 10 minutes or so. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Some decent flurries now, nothing on radar. Anyone know what's associated with the early flakes? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF and NMM still support some possible morning Atlanta flurries. Nice to see Yep..18z nam is actually showing a changeover to snow before ending in atlanta thanks to a fairly robust banding feature. Nam dropping 0.30 liquid or so from around atlanta to athens. Not sure if there would be a changeover east of athens but west of athens to atlanta the nam certainly indicates its possible with wetbulb zero heights crashing and surface temps as low as 34 under the coldest part of that band. It also shows a much broader area of changeover occurring over the upstate..and of course a rather large part of north carolina. btw to be clear, not all that falls would be snow. Most of it goes to cooling the low levels so this is a rain changing to snow briefly before ending situation without much, if any, accumulation. But at least flakes would be falling. The western edge of whereever that banding feature sets up would stand the best shot of a quick dusting. Better chance of minor accumulations in the upstate with quicker changeover and slightly colder low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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