Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So we take NAM temps and GFS qpf? Usually, take the model with the least QPF and model with the higher temps, and that is the safest way to go. This time. I like the higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It looks fairly certain that the mountains will get a wide spread 1 to 3 inches from this. It's Saturday night, time for a road trip! Indeed. Complete no go here in western upstate, as always. Temps way to warm for any snow, heck its already 53 here in Easley. Needed to come through earlier in the week. Hope all you other guys get a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 The UKMET is improved. The low is a little stronger which ends up slightly further north off the East Coast as the previous run. The westward expansion of the precip shield through northern GA and the Carolinas is much improved. That seems to be the trend of the day. Now let's see if the low strengthens like the models are predicting = nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The UKMET is improved. The low is a little stronger which ends up slightly further north off the East Coast as the previous run. The westward expansion of the precip shield through northern GA and the Carolinas is much improved. That seems to be the trend of the day. Now let's see if the low strengthens like the models are predicting = nowcast time! We got a euro run to watch first which I think might be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Considering a trip to gatlinburg or Cherokee, possibly even highlands. I would love to see some snow! An hour of wet snow melting on impact around 5am doesn't quite do it for me here in Lithia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z GEFS continues the trend: ~3mb lower pressure at all hours and much more precip on the NW side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's gonna end up like yesterday where everyone gets 2-3 times what was forecasted. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 13km 12z GFS snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z GEFS continues the trend: ~3mb lower pressure at all hours and much more precip on the NW side! Yeah, noticeably wetter, too, not that it's a huge surprise given the op's move. I'm starting to think there could be a stripe of 1-3" somewhere in the Piedmont, foothills, and/or mountains of NC and maybe SC, N GA, and S VA. I'm not too worried about the BL here. Give us the precip and I think we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Cold front coming through now ! Your goodYou think the upstate of sc will see some snowSent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, noticeably wetter, too, not that it's a huge surprise given the op's move. I'm starting to think there could be a stripe of 1-3" somewhere in the Piedmont, foothills, and/or mountains of NC and maybe SC, N GA, and S VA. I'm not too worried about the BL here. Give us the precip and I think we'll be fine. You'll be good James. CR, Jon and I are looking at dripping snow I'm afraid unless the temps trend down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You'll be good James. CR, Jon and I are looking at dripping snow I'm afraid unless the temps trend down It's always good to precede these events with temps the day before busting 5-10 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You think the upstate of sc will see some snow Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk See flakes , yes! Accumulate , no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's always good to precede these events with temps the day before busting 5-10 degrees too warm. CR, this area is so close that you could end up the winner. NAM is colder. It's really going to come down to tracking the radar tomorrow. I also think it will be critical for how cold we can get tonight. Starting off clear should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 folks, let's try to keep it a little more on topic. see banter thread for trivial stuff. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CR, this area is so close that you could end up the winner. NAM is colder. It's really going to come down to tracking the radar tomorrow. I also think it will be critical for how cold we can get tonight. Starting off clear should help. If we could stay clear through the AM, that would certainly help. Don't know how realistic that is, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro is a little drier than the GFS. With QPF so little proabably trivial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro is a little drier than the GFS. With QPF so little proabably trivial. It did follow the trend we saw all morning though..that it's a little wetter and further north than it's 0z run. In the end though there isn't much difference at this point between all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You think the upstate of sc will see some snow Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Depends on where you are - better chance if you are near Rock Hill or Gaffney. Western upstate could see a few flakes mxed in with the rain, but no real snow unless things change big time with temps. I'm thinking right now, surface temps won't even be close here; probably upper 30s to low forties. This'll be a non even for the upstate unless the cold air and rates can overcome near the Charlotte metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 13km 12z GFS snowfall I'll cash out right now with that map. Old saying to get the highest totals you got to be close enough to smell the rain. 2 inches would be nice but the county line is 0. Hopefully we'll stay cloud free tonight until right before sunrise then we'll all need a thick deck till precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Depends on where you are - better chance if you are near Rock Hill or Gaffney. Western upstate could see a few flakes mxed in with the rain, but no real snow unless things change big time with temps. I'm thinking right now, surface temps won't even be close here; probably upper 30s to low forties. This'll be a non even for the upstate unless the cold air and rates can overcome near the Charlotte metro.Gotcha I'm in greerSent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Simulated radar looks like a lot more precip than forecasted. And then there's this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Simulated radar http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Simulated radar looks like a lot more precip than forecasted. And then there's this. wpc_snow_72_95_se.png Thats a map showing the best case scenario. 95th percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas. Temps valid for 18Z Location NAM Actual GSP 54 58 HKY 50 56 AVL 43 46 CLT 55 56 GSO 53 55 RDU 52 56 GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Simulated radar http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016011612/rgem_ir_seus_9.png I still believe that the Moisture shield is going to be a lot better than models are forecasting. It'll definitely be worth watching as we go through this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas. Temps valid for 18Z Location NAM Actual GSP 54 58 HKY 50 56 AVL 43 46 CLT 55 56 GSO 53 55 RDU 52 56 GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day. Yes, it is ridiculously busting in my area, 39 after it was foretasted to be 34 at this time yesterday in West Jefferson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas. Temps valid for 18Z Location NAM Actual GSP 54 58 HKY 50 56 AVL 43 46 CLT 55 56 GSO 53 55 RDU 52 56 GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day. Thanks for digging these up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 A Winter Weather Advisory out for portions of N GA: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA150 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016GAZ005>009-013>016-170300-/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.160117T0600Z-160117T1400Z/MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND150 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AMTO 9 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ALONGAND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHATSWORTH...TO JASPER...TO CLEVELAND.* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH AND THEN CHANGINGTO LIGHT SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTSPOSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOPSHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW LATETONIGHT. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT RAINBRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATETONIGHT...SOME OF THE ROADS AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES COULD BECOMESLICK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING ASTEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FALLINGTO 30 TO 32 DEGREES AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVEFREEZING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPAREDFOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTIONWHILE DRIVING.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas. Temps valid for 18Z Location NAM Actual GSP 54 58 HKY 50 56 AVL 43 46 CLT 55 56 GSO 53 55 RDU 52 56 GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day. That's a deal breaker right there! When best case scenario was 37 or 38, we can't afford a 5 degree bust high today! Game over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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