franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 850mb low runs roughly from Magnolia Lane to Kill Devil Hills. 850 low is closed and strengthening along the way...so, a dynamic model run therelooks very close to the para. I noticed it developed a nice 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks good Calc. This is the type (as shown in this current run) that splits Rutherford County in half. If that happens, your area will see some wet white snow. Here's hoping we both get some of that white gold, Strong. This is the first credible threat in quite a while. I'm cautiously optimistic. Yeah, that's what I meant, further south and east. And like I said, we have seen this before where the model has it going NW during this time only to bring it back further south and east a couple of days later right before the system gets here. Wait. We can't beat the NW trend drum and then change to hyping a SE trend when it suits us. This storm may very well trend back SE, but I don't know of any established, historical likelihood of a SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Its a bad run for anyone east of I77, it needs to go ENE not up the coast......the reason it went NW and trended towards up the coast is the high is still way up in central Canada versus the Dakotas on the 06Z...where that high ends up in reality will make or break most of us. 06Z--high centered in SE SD 12Z --high centered north of Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here you go ..... Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/13/16, 11:17 Real threat for major winter storm is Sunday into Monday from south into the east as arctic hammer drops se toward southern branch short This is a joke right. Someone just posted earlier that he said this was no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The previous system phased more allowing for the lakes to weaken considerably. If models trend towards a full phase then the lakes low will be no more and HP will build to the NE. Well see what the Euro does in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's about the most perfect setup you can get for the coldest rain you can achieve. Mountains look great with that track. Franklin, Met, et. al. should be stoked! Lol, yeah good mountain snow maybe 40 north. Just a nasty cold rain for clt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 if it starts as snow, it won't change over to rain and I think it begins as snow. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Lol, yeah good mountain snow maybe 40 north. Just a nasty cold rain for clt. Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Very good observation. Its a bad run for anyone east of I77, it needs to go ENE not up the coast......the reason it went NW and trended towards up the coast is the high is still way up in central Canada versus the Dakotas on the 06Z...where that high ends up in reality will make or break most of us. 06Z--high centered in SE SD 12Z --high centered north of Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hate to feed the weenies... but so many people are in a state of snow desparation (including myself) However, it is the GFS so proceed with extreme caution.... JBSUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE REAL THREATJanuary 13 11:11 AM The Arctic attack that is on the way is likely to make sure the emperor of the north has a carpet to walk in on all the way to the mid Atlantic coast. I like the Euro now keeping the noreaster fairly far out, as the storm is using WARMTH to deepen and so the model is correctly seeing this staying out. But now we have a second situation I alluded to this morning. At the very least the arctic branch pivoting in will have snow with it. However if you watched the Avenger this morning, I alluded to the idea that if the southern branch on the Euro is a little quicker, than its a much bigger event. That is what you are now seeing on the GFS, as the front runner is so far off the playing field it allows this. I have been a huge deal out of this to my energy clients, how strong this northern branch is going to be. So the moral of the story is the GFS is now starting to show this. I say starting because its still playing games with the upper low not understanding its coming full bore. The Euro problem is its holding the southern branch back, once it sees the GFS speed on that, it will likely phase it. The northern hammer is coming right in, and there is the southern branch energy. So on the table is the snow into the deep south and up the east coast, and perhaps then some. The Blizzard of 58 and 66 both had similar looks to them, brutal arctic air involved with both. At the very least, and although yes, it could miss, its gratifying to see this on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Take Lincolnton as an example, the event begins with a temp of 1.4 at the surface and 92% humidity. You'd probably end up at 32/32 or 33/33 with decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Pivotal Weather's 12Z GFS snowfall accumulations through 102 hours based on 10:1 ratios: Then, based on the Kuchera derived ratios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Monitor...not a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And like grit showed, you're dealing with a **** ton of dynamics here. This isn't the typical flat system we normally have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The previous system phased more allowing for the lakes to weaken considerably. If models trend towards a full phase then the lakes low will be no more and HP will build to the NE. Well see what the Euro does in a few. Now that would be nice. Got to have a closer high to our North I think. Cold from the west and I just don't buy it...well see what Dr no says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yep. Based on this run, KFQD and surrounding areas stay below all the way down Take Lincolnton as an example, the event begins with a temp of 1.4 at the surface and 92% humidity. You'd probably end up at 32/32 or 33/33 with decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At hour 102 it loos like 3" fro RDU westward: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=102¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Edit: this map is not as good as the one posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow, 3-4 inches along the I-20 corridor. I will take that ! The way you Carolina people were talking it sounded like I-20 was going to get all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z CMC still slower with the southern stream compared to the GFS. That wont get it done, but it does show the arctic outbreak after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GGEM has no storm whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow, 3-4 inches along the I-20 corridor. I will take that ! The way you Carolina people were talking it sounded like I-20 was going to get all rain. Where did you see this? NVMD I saw the maps. Still rain here. Waiting for Euro to bring the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Where did you see this? NVMD I saw the maps. Still rain here. Waiting for Euro to bring the goods. In the map that Calculus posted. It looks like a major snow event from Birmingham to Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the arctic unloads behind the storm!That should help with the next threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 WxSouth 8 mins · I've been following the Sunday system closely and will have another update soon for premium members (map breakdowns, where models are missing things, trends, etc). Pretty soon it will be time for some custom snow fall, Wintery mess maps for the members, the first one of the season. Areas affected are northern Texas, southeast Oklahoma, across the Deep South, Southern Arkansas, northern parts of Miss, Alabama and Georgia, very close to Birmingham, Atlanta metros, eastern and southern middle Tennesse, the Carolinas, and much of Virginia, and along immediate East Coast. Very interesting storm, since the roles of European and GFS are reversed on this. One thing I've noticed is the European overdone in its cold extended lately, and in this case, the door is open to southern development moreso than it thinks, and that may allow the Southern storm to ramp up suddenly Saturday Night and Sunday, possibly scraping the East Coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Closer to the coast means warmer. That's a good one to write down. It needs to be farther south and east, not closer to to the coast. And I'm talking about for you and me. The foothills and mountains look good for some accumulation here...maybe even parts of the piedmont.It'll make it's own cold air! But seriously closer to the coast and stronger, = no bueno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Why are we even talking about this? According to NCRain this things been dead for days! All jokes aside, as it's been since the fall, we are starting to get into the window where models start to latch on to a more robust system. We should know that most of the systems have had plenty of moisture to work with and modeled totals have usually increased and increased until the day of the event. No reason to think anything will be any different. No reason this can't continue to become more amped either which would bring in more cold. Loving the trends and think they will continue. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It'll make it's own cold air! But seriously closer to the coast and stronger, = no bueno! Yeah those only work with a strong high over NE, when we got west based highs we wants weaker and OTS, these never end up as blockbusters but given the right conditions a few lucky folks can squeeze 3-6" and lots of people will see 1-3"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 WxSouth 8 mins · I've been following the Sunday system closely and will have another update soon for premium members (map breakdowns, where models are missing things, trends, etc). Pretty soon it will be time for some custom snow fall, Wintery mess maps for the members, the first one of the season. Areas affected are northern Texas, southeast Oklahoma, across the Deep South, Southern Arkansas, northern parts of Miss, Alabama and Georgia, very close to Birmingham, Atlanta metros, eastern and southern middle Tennesse, the Carolinas, and much of Virginia, and along immediate East Coast. Very interesting storm, since the roles of European and GFS are reversed on this. One thing I've noticed is the European overdone in its cold extended lately, and in this case, the door is open to southern development moreso than it thinks, and that may allow the Southern storm to ramp up suddenly Saturday Night and Sunday, possibly scraping the East Coast as well. Interesting he says the "Carolinas". GFS Leaves almost all of South Carolina and about half of North Carolina without snow. We'll see what the Euro does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snowlover91 sent me this sounding for RDU at height of storm. Sounding indicates heavy wet snow for Raleigh throughout storm. Also the PGV sounding is extremely close to snow just too warm. Wouldn't put much weight on snow maps right now. According to the soundings there would be more snow for rdu and maybe east toward Pgv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Who has the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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