Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 closer look. the base reflectivity image isn't as impressive obviously but if you are downstream over south carolina/nc it would be hard to look at radar and not think something good might happen. N Not sure how well hhhr does with temps aloft in situations like this but fwiw here is the 850s. 925mb/surface temps are still way too warm most areas but interesting to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 closer look. the base reflectivity image isn't as impressive obviously but if you are downstream over south carolina/nc it would be hard to look at radar and not think something good might happen. Yes sir. Looks great here just south east of Henderson county. Nice fetch if it sets up this way! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 closer look. the base reflectivity image isn't as impressive obviously but if you are downstream over south carolina/nc it would be hard to look at radar and not think something good might happen. If the radar looks like that in the morn, nga and upstate sc over to clt would def see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Models seem to differ with the timing, what time are we looking at this to start for our area? Lunchtime? I was thinking in the morning, but it would definitely be our luck for it to coincide with peak heating, after a full morning of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 experimental HRRR is showing some fairly impressive banding over ga/sc. Probably better news for the carolinas than here. It's a shame this is such a quick mover and initial conditions are so warm that what precip that does fall is mostly used up as rain and cooling the column. This upcoming storm system is very similar to Feb 2010, minus the well entrenched cold air. This system appears to have a ton of convection and plus you alluded to it being such a fast mover, that moisture transport will be limited, not so much to convective robbing, but the fact the system is hauling tail. Interesting on Friday's system produced a Gravity Wave in the Carolinas with a lot of wind damage reports from the Midlands and Pee Dee Region as well as Eastern NC. The atmosphere is turbulent, that's a given and should bode well on a storm threat that is cold enough for this season should another threat arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Brad p take Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/688370646229712897?s=09 Blog address https://t.co/3DIIhqjDuW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Rgem showing a more traditional comma head trying to get going. Looks rly good too me. Big difference compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, I'm liking the trends. I hope the trends with the temps continue. What we need is for the clouds to hold off/stay thin so we can get rid of this heat we are getting today.....if we can get temps down to around 32-33 before the cloud deck comes back in and bounces them a few degrees it will be better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 6z para much more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do the temps look any colder or air any dryer tonight? Down my way, it makes me very nervous that the front is coming through this evening, as there is usually a 12 hour lag for the cold getting over the mountains!? It's been alot of model watching to reel in a cold rain. Cold front should be through your area much sooner than that. It's almost through my area now. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM had nothing for the event at 6z for CLT. New NAM has almost .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What we need is for the clouds to hold off/stay thin so we can get rid of this heat we are getting today.....if we can get temps down to around 32-33 before the cloud deck comes back in and bounces them a few degrees it will be better.... Haha when does that ever happen, man? But yes, you are 100% right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Far too many times have we seen models begin to back down on totals at this stage of the game...I think it's our turn to see it go the other way. There's no reason why it couldn't happen Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Rgem showing a more traditional comma head trying to get going. Looks rly good too me. Big difference compared to 06z RN/SN line sets up from about Henderson down to Rock Hill and makes a run at 95 but never quite gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z is 2mb lower with our surface low early (hr 9). Lets see where it goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 RN/SN line sets up from about Henderson down to Rock Hill and make a run at 95 but never quite gets there. yep looks like we get to watch RDU and west maybe get some snow....not exactly the first time thats happened and damn sure wont be the last lol.....still happy for those that luck up and will need pics to live vicariously through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is revved up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is revved up! what's the deal with that hole in the precip in SC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 gfs has a nice band over rdu around hr 27. models seem to be honing in on a band of heavy returns over upstate sc turning to central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 The stronger low seemed to pay off. Looks to lead to a little more northerly path. One would also think that it would help to have stronger dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 and a fast mover. In and out of my area in 4-6 hours Looks toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks toasty. wake county looks to be a dividing line, of course. im glad i moved to brier creek. should be good rates if you can get under this heavy band and go all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It looks fairly certain that the mountains will get a wide spread 1 to 3 inches from this. It's Saturday night, time for a road trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is much warmer than the NAM was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 wake county looks to be a dividing line, of course. im glad i moved to brier creek. should be good rates if you can get under this heavy band and go all snow. Looks like mostly rain here. Nice storm. Nice track. Marginal temps. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks toasty. Yep, RDU would be mixing verbatim and probably never changes fully over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Agree with CR and Queencity that this was a very warm run of the GFS. I would not take this snowfall map as a good guide to what might happen. Nevertheless, we all like to look at them, so here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is much warmer than the NAM was. So we take NAM temps and GFS qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 and a fast mover. In and out of my area in 4-6 hours Yep...you look good to see some flakes. Take a couple of pix for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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