Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do the temps look any colder or air any dryer tonight? Down my way, it makes me very nervous that the front is coming through this evening, as there is usually a 12 hour lag for the cold getting over the mountains!? It's been alot of model watching to reel in a cold rain. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016011612/nam_T2m_seus_9.png When heaviest precip is over your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So the 21Z SREF was juicy last night and we thought it was a random weenie run. The 03z was still wet and the 09z that just came out was even wetter. 0.5" precip line runs roughly up 85. Still probably on crack but this was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is going to overproduce.the models just don't have a clue.It's like throwing darts at a dartboard. You know, this is reminding me about March 93. What does the euro say? Nam is phasing 150 miles east of Hawaii! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is going to overproduce.Yeah, I could easily see alot of people getting 1/2 inch plus! Of cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Rgem was again further north this morning as well. Nam is looking better. We really don't need a massive trend and that is why we are even still talking abt this. Another .1-.3 qpf wetter and some ends up with 2-3 inches of snow For 12z I would watch the rgem. It's ahead of other models and nam just jumped pretty close to it. If the 12z rgem is even better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016011612/nam_T2m_seus_9.png When heaviest precip is over your area Thank you! That looks iffy, but I guess if 850s are cold, and dp's are decent, might see a little flakeage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The difference between getting .1 and .5 inch of liquid is not that drastic. I wouldn't be surprised to see the models trend wetter today. It looks like there is some jet dynamics going on across the upstate causing a band of heavier precip to set up on the NAM... maybe the models will start to key in on this? Also, at first glance, the boundary temps on the NAM don't look too bad. This is the first time we've been able to judge it as this is the first run of the NAM to show any precip. My interest for this storm has certainly went up this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I have to say i don't recall the last time there was a sub 1000mb low in the northern gulf dropping to a 997mb low tracking across north florida, and the low down to 996mb virtually on top of savannah, to 992mb southeast of wilmington but with so little precip inland..such as the rgem is showing. Or just the lack of it in general by the other models. Does anyone recall the last time that might have happened because i'm having a hard time recalling a low that deep with that track yet virtually no precip of note inland? Which is why i have to say i'm surprised there isn't more precip being shown inland...not saying it's not true but damn. Such as the ridiculousness of this winter. I still wouldn't be surprised though if there is a narrow band of enhanced totals that might provide some a surprise. As i'm typing this the 12z nam is showing exactly that. In fact radar would be encouraging. Thats the thing all winter storms have looked meh on the models which are saying .25" and we get .75-1" so it will suck if that doesnt work out here....I cant really remember a low that strong that close that gives less than a .25".....under normal circumstances I would be freaking out at a low track like this with that strength to boot.....especially if the cold air supply was/is better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM is also way colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is going to overproduce. I agree that this thing will likely overproduce precip. This has been consistent this season, and it appears the stage is being set for that. I do not think temps ever make it for me. I hope those of you to the north of me can score on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 the models just don't have a clue. It's like throwing darts at a dartboard. You know, this is reminding me about March 93. What does the euro say? Nam is phasing 150 miles east of Hawaii! Bath water in the Gulf and off the SE. There will be more precip than drizzle. I'm pretty confident of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM is also way colder than the GFS. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nam looks good for our area. Limited mixing and a good band of snow. Still concerned for us re: temps, but I do like to see that trend. Batman, correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM is much colder at 850 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One caveat is moisture-robbing Gulf convection, but that's nebulous right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM is much colder at 850 anyway. and at the surface. it's like night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 and at the surface. it's like night and day.Isn't a NAM bias to be too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One caveat is moisture-robbing Gulf convection, but that's nebulous right now. That's not really an issue with this system. Winds aloft are horrible for moisture transport at H7. If they had more time to turn SW it would be a different story. There is so much upward motion around the low . Horrible for moisture transport Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM is also way colder than the GFS. Now that the nam has an actual band of respectable precip, there is a fair bit of dynamical cooling taking place underneath that band. Temps over south carolina, under that band, go from low 40s at 09z to 33 and snow by 15z. You can see just how much difference it makes at 925mb and 850mb as temps are much colder this run. Thats the thing all winter storms have looked meh on the models which are saying .25" and we get .75-1" so it will suck if that doesnt work out here....I cant really remember a low that strong that close that gives less than a .25".....under normal circumstances I would be freaking out at a low track like this with that strength to boot.....especially if the cold air supply was/is better.... Exactly..most of us would be freaking out with a low that strong and track like that. The 06z gfs started to see the banding inland with heavier totals, the 12z nam is following suite so we'll see..hopefully the models have been under estimating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 and at the surface. it's like night and day. this is the 12k nam, if this were to pan out then the areas showing 33 under the heavy returns would easily be accumulating snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 and at the surface. it's like night and day. I think I was looking at the 32km which still showed 37 or so. The 12km is a lot stronger with that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That's not really an issue with this system. Winds aloft are horrible for moisture transport at H7. If they had more time to turn SW it would be a different story. There is so much upward motion around the low . Horrible for moisture transport Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk So it's too strong and keeping all the moisture around the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That's not really an issue with this system. Winds aloft are horrible for moisture transport at H7. If they had more time to turn SW it would be a different story. There is so much upward motion around the low . Horrible for moisture transport Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Good deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 experimental HRRR is showing some fairly impressive banding over ga/sc. Probably better news for the carolinas than here. It's a shame this is such a quick mover and initial conditions are so warm that what precip that does fall is mostly used up as rain and cooling the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 this is the 12k nam, if this were to pan out then the areas showing 33 under the heavy returns would easily be accumulating snow IMO Nam 12 temps.png nam 12 precip.png The NAM is still too weak with the low pressure. Drop that low to 995 and that will beef up inland precip even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So it's too strong and keeping all the moisture around the center? It's more a product of the jet going a million miles an hour vs the strength of the surface low . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good deal! Your in a much better spot than me . You will have better convergence up that way. You should be hopeful Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's more a product of the jet going a million miles an hour vs the strength of the surface low . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah this is moving so quickly the precip wont be able to expand to great distances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Your in a much better spot than me . You will have better convergence up that way. You should be hopeful Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, I'm liking the trends. I hope the trends with the temps continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, I'm liking the trends. I hope the trends with the temps continue.Models seem to differ with the timing, what time are we looking at this to start for our area? Lunchtime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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