Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Stay at the Biltmore and have some wine and cheese delivered to your room. lol not a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Are there even any winter weather advisories in place at all in NC ? I would think an inch or two of snow would require at least an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 00z UKMET is about the same as the 12z UKMET. Some flakes, but not a whole lot. EDIT: It may have already been mentioned and it doesn't mean much at this point, but the 00z GEFS took a slight correction NW (maybe 25-50 miles) with both the LP track and the precip shield. It was about the same strength. I feel like we could have some surprises in the lee of the Apps for some lucky people who get under a trailing band. Maybe something similar to what we got in February 2013 when the Charlotte and GSP area got pounded with heavy wet snow? I am actually wondering how similar this system is the the February 2013 one? I do not really remember the synoptics behind it, but I know the system went OTS and we had snow showers throughout the day, and if you got lucky and got under a band, it was fun for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Are there even any winter weather advisories in place at all in NC ? I would think an inch or two of snow would require at least an advisory. So far... 1-3" Winter Weather Advisory for Texas/Oklahoma 1-2" Special Weather Statement for Tennessee Mountains, South-West Virginia, South-West NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So far... 1-3" Winter Weather Advisory for Texas/Oklahoma 1-2" Special Weather Statement for Tennessee Mountains, South-West Virginia, South-West NC All of East TN (except the plateau) is listed in the Special Weather Statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 00z Euro is meh. A bit worse than last run. It does still show that development in the foothills and western Piedmont that could turn out interesting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Game . Set. Match! King has spoken and enjoy your token flakes / drizzle Sun morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Overall, the system has been a consistent "light flurry/snow shower with little to no accumulation" event at best outside the mountains. Surface temps really can't get much help due to lighter rates and all that other stuff. It is a sign of how snow starved everyone is I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Are there even any winter weather advisories in place at all in NC ? I would think an inch or two of snow would require at least an advisory. I would think winter weather advisories for the wnc mtns will go up sometime this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Pretty nice 06z GFS run for N NC and S VA (provided you have your expectations in check). A bit further NW and the development over NC really gets going more this run compared to past runs and gets S VA in the game. (No, I am not staying up for the 06z GFS... I am already up working on something for work ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 0z GFS para looked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ive got a ?? For yall. Has the models be showing snow for Oklahoma with this system today? The shortwave thats supposed to affect the EC tomorrow. Havent been following much. Much the weather app on my phone shows most of what is over Ok atm falling as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ive got a ?? For yall. Has the models be showing snow for Oklahoma with this system today? The shortwave thats supposed to affect the EC tomorrow. Havent been following much. Much the weather app on my phone shows most of what is over Ok atm falling as snow. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What is mostly falling is rain or freezing rain right now, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just because the models don't show a phase doesn't mean it won't, especially if they are close to showing it. It can always turn out better than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just because the models don't show a phase doesn't mean it won't, especially if they are close to showing it. It can always turn out better than the models show. There is always a chance that this system will phase some/more/quicker or over perform; but the end reality will most likely be closer to what RAH has in our forecast. "A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible." If we get the half inch, it would be the high end of the expectations. So for us a half inch would be a big win right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Freezing line Snap7.png The SPC page is going to get some use this weekend...maybe a flashlight Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 462 FXUS62 KGSP 161143 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 643 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 640 AM...DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF I-77 CORRIDOR STRATUS AND FOG. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY AND VIS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE TEMPS AND MIN TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES. IN ADDITION...RECENT SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS INDICATE PATCHY BLACK ICE HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AS OF 315 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT...EAST OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WILL REMAIN RIPE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH SUNRISE. IN FACT...0Z NAM SHOWS SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REMAINING BELOW 5 MBS THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING ABOVE 10 MBS BY 15Z. I WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RESTRICTIVE VIS THROUGH 12Z. CAMS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE PERIOD OF NWFS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. IT APPEARS ONLY THE RIDGES ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE A DUSTING TO LIGHT ACCUMS...VALLEYS MAY SEE A FEW BURSTS OF FLURRIES. SKY CONDITIONS WILL RELIABLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...GIVEN A PREFRONTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...YIELDING VEER WINDS FROM THE NORTH AFTER 0Z. KAVL SHOULD MAINTAIN NNW WINDS...GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT H85 SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST TODAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL S/W. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...REACHING FL BY 12Z SUN. IT IS INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PRECIP NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE GREATEST QPF VALUES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SFC LOW...THE PRECIP SHIELD DOES EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO SOUTHERN WV 12Z SUN. THE MODEL CHASER IN ME IS DRAWN TO THE 21Z 1/15 RUN OF THE SREF...ARP MEMBERS PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT KGSP BY 15Z SUNDAY. GIVEN A LARGE FIELD OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT ARRIVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z...REMAINING THROUGH 12Z...I WILL SIDE WITH THE SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z SUN...BETWEEN .03 TO .05 OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH .01 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. H85 TEMPS APPEAR TO RANGE FROM -5C ACROSS THE MTNS TO 0C ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW THERMAL PROFILE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BY SUNRISE...PRECIP IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A COLD RA EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...-RASN ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TO SN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. 12Z SUN...EXPECT .1 OF AN INCH WOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH REPORTS OF FLURRIES SCT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 DEGREES WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 462 FXUS62 KGSP 161143 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 643 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 640 AM...DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF I-77 CORRIDOR STRATUS AND FOG. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY AND VIS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE REMAINED WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE TEMPS AND MIN TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES. IN ADDITION...RECENT SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS INDICATE PATCHY BLACK ICE HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AS OF 315 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT...EAST OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WILL REMAIN RIPE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH SUNRISE. IN FACT...0Z NAM SHOWS SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REMAINING BELOW 5 MBS THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING ABOVE 10 MBS BY 15Z. I WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RESTRICTIVE VIS THROUGH 12Z. CAMS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE PERIOD OF NWFS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z. IT APPEARS ONLY THE RIDGES ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE A DUSTING TO LIGHT ACCUMS...VALLEYS MAY SEE A FEW BURSTS OF FLURRIES. SKY CONDITIONS WILL RELIABLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...GIVEN A PREFRONTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...YIELDING VEER WINDS FROM THE NORTH AFTER 0Z. KAVL SHOULD MAINTAIN NNW WINDS...GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT H85 SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST TODAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL S/W. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...REACHING FL BY 12Z SUN. IT IS INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PRECIP NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE GREATEST QPF VALUES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SFC LOW...THE PRECIP SHIELD DOES EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO SOUTHERN WV 12Z SUN. THE MODEL CHASER IN ME IS DRAWN TO THE 21Z 1/15 RUN OF THE SREF...ARP MEMBERS PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT KGSP BY 15Z SUNDAY. GIVEN A LARGE FIELD OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT ARRIVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z...REMAINING THROUGH 12Z...I WILL SIDE WITH THE SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z SUN...BETWEEN .03 TO .05 OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH .01 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. H85 TEMPS APPEAR TO RANGE FROM -5C ACROSS THE MTNS TO 0C ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW THERMAL PROFILE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BY SUNRISE...PRECIP IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A COLD RA EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...-RASN ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TO SN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. 12Z SUN...EXPECT .1 OF AN INCH WOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH REPORTS OF FLURRIES SCT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 DEGREES WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Pretty nice 06z GFS run for N NC and S VA (provided you have your expectations in check). A bit further NW and the development over NC really gets going more this run compared to past runs and gets S VA in the game. (No, I am not staying up for the 06z GFS... I am already up working on something for work ) .21 for my new back yard. sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST TODAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL S/W. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...REACHING FL BY 12Z SUN. IT IS INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PRECIP NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE GREATEST QPF VALUES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SFC LOW...THE PRECIP SHIELD DOES EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO SOUTHERN WV 12Z SUN. THE MODEL CHASER IN ME IS DRAWN TO THE 21Z 1/15 RUN OF THE SREF...ARP MEMBERS PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT KGSP BY 15Z SUNDAY. GIVEN A LARGE FIELD OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT ARRIVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z...REMAINING THROUGH 12Z...I WILL SIDE WITH THE SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z SUN...BETWEEN .03 TO .05 OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH .01 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. H85 TEMPS APPEAR TO RANGE FROM -5C ACROSS THE MTNS TO 0C ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW THERMAL PROFILE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BY SUNRISE...PRECIP IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A COLD RA EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...-RASN ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TO SN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. 12Z SUN...EXPECT .1 OF AN INCH WOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH REPORTS OF FLURRIES SCT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 DEGREES WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST. && :lmao: :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol... model chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 There is always a chance that this system will phase some/more/quicker or over perform; but the end reality will most likely be closer to what RAH has in our forecast. "A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible." If we get the half inch, it would be the high end of the expectations. So for us a half inch would be a big win right now. Yeah the good news I guess is that if this thing bust it will be to the good since it cant really bust to the bad. Just need this storm to come in stronger and wetter like all the others have....course it wont lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM finally catching on. Frozen precip into N GA, NW SC and WNC at 12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nam finally joined the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM finally catching on. Frozen precip into N GA, NW SC and WNC at 12Z Sunday.Do the temps look any colder or air any dryer tonight? Down my way, it makes me very nervous that the front is coming through this evening, as there is usually a 12 hour lag for the cold getting over the mountains!? It's been alot of model watching to reel in a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah the good news I guess is that if this thing bust it will be to the good since it cant really bust to the bad. Just need this storm to come in stronger and wetter like all the others have....course it wont lol. I have to say i don't recall the last time there was a sub 1000mb low in the northern gulf dropping to a 997mb low tracking across north florida, and the low down to 996mb virtually on top of savannah, to 992mb southeast of wilmington but with so little precip inland..such as the rgem is showing. Or just the lack of it in general by the other models. Does anyone recall the last time that might have happened because i'm having a hard time recalling a low that deep with that track yet virtually no precip of note inland? Which is why i have to say i'm surprised there isn't more precip being shown inland...not saying it's not true but damn. Such as the ridiculousness of this winter. I still wouldn't be surprised though if there is a narrow band of enhanced totals that might provide some a surprise. As i'm typing this the 12z nam is showing exactly that. In fact radar would be encouraging. If you look at satellite tonight, you'd be thinking wow something exciting must be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is going to overproduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is going to overproduce.Nam looks good for our area. Limited mixing and a good band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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