nomanslandva Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The bipolar SREF is back in a good mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 The bipolar SREF is back in a good mood Wow! Your not kidding. .25 back to I-85 in NC where there was nothing at 15z. I guess we know what the NAM is going through show. Let the real happy hour begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The bipolar SREF is back in a good mood Your right it's showing a mean of 1.32" at RDU with 1 member showing 10" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 For mby, the mean went from .02 to 1.05 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That was a jump no doubt...it's moving toward my back yard...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The bipolar SREF is back in a good mood Your right it's showing a mean of 1.32" at RDU with 1 member showing 10" lol Is the SREF to be believed though? Even at half that amount?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I keep hearing Lenny Kravitz singing it ain't over til it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anybody have an idea how the sref has handled qpf in the past few months with the nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Could be a couple members went crazy...or its Jan 25 2000. I'm in until the end which may come tonight. You guys are in much better spot to see flakes especially NC west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Is the SREF to be believed though? Even at half that amount?? Probably not but it leaves open possibilities. Next run it will probably show 0 like it did in it's 1500 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF plumes average like 1.2" for GSP. Interesting a big group is between 3-5" and one crazy 12" member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Is the SREF to be believed though? Even at half that amount?? Oh, no. Not at all for exact details but it may be good for trends. In today's case though, it has been all over the place. It normally does not take radical swings. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20160115%2021%20UTC¶m=mslp&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area MSLP position is what is the huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like it may be taking a neutral to negative tilt coming through Texas which would seem to indicate a phasing. Not over yet and the NAM just changed it's tune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF plumes average like 1.2" for GSP. Interesting a big group is between 3-5" and one crazy 12" member. Yea that's the one I look at for my area, showed some pretty high totals no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Huh, closer to the coast than I expected. Wonder if .1 inches brings it any closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF blew it big time last year with the late February event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SREF blew it big time last year with the late February event Yes it did. I remember thinking "there's no statistical way I can get less than 4" from this looking at the plumes" but we all know how that went. Then again... Anything helps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like NAM trying to show a phase. Of course, it could be off a bit and there is a chance we do get the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well, the nam looks like it is going to be bone dry in the areas cold enough for snow. It showed some signs of phasing, but it just didn't happen. I thought we were going to get nam'ed after the sref run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That SREF probability map above is ridiculous. We are most likely not getting flurries around the Central Midlands.. much less a 10%+ of greater than an inch. Way overdone down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well, the nam looks like it is going to be bone dry in the areas cold enough for snow. It showed some signs of phasing, but it just didn't happen. I thought we were going to get nam'ed after the sref run. It would take a really sharp left from where it is at h36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Huge jump on the surface reflectivity this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Meanwhile, out of Greensboro, NC... " Snow Showers Possible Sunday; Bread & Milk Not Needed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Check out the 4km NAM at hour 36 has a 999 over FL. VERSUS a 1005 mb being shown same time by the 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All I know is there is potential. That is the best the models can show. Whatever actually happens will happen. Can't take what the models show as gospel. It can go either way when it comes to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Check out the 4km NAM at hour 36 has a 999 over FL. VERSUS a 1005 mb being shown same time by the 12km Yea how does that not wrap in much colder air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The SREF places us at the half way prob. point. When is the next? 0300? Looking for a trend or stabilization and not a roll back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not bad. What does your met common sense tell you on this one Jon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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