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1/17/16 Winter Weather Threat

packfan98

By packfan98,
in Southeastern States

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Bsudweather

Bsudweather

Posted
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You need to keep in mind though that only happens if you have low enough surface dewpoints, low freezing levels, low wetbulb zero heights or heavy enough precip to overcome that warm surface layer. Unfortunately, as it stands now, For areas in eastern ga and much of south carolina, upper 30s won't get the job done because freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights aren't low enough to produce much, if any, snow with the amount of precip being shown. Northwest georgia, areas north of gainesville to toccoa to gsp, and a lot of north carolina probably will be cold enough to at least see snow fall. But outside of higher elevations, accumulations will be hard to come by since this will be a quick mover and at best temps will only lower to 33 to 35 if snow manages to reach the ground.

For those areas stuck in the low level warmth, you have to keep hoping it trends wetter so there is a chance it can be overcome by decent rates.

I guess when I say upstate I'm meaning only three counties and that is oconee, Pickens and Greenville. That is where I'm confusing people I assume. So yes I'm speaking of that line you mention Tocoaa to GSP line. And I understand what you are saying about overcoming those temps. Also I'm not counting on any accumulation even up this way other than possibly .5" if that on grassy areas.My area is approx 25 miles north of I85 in Pickens co. So I should make myself clear when I say upstate.

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packfan98

packfan98

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The biggest difference I see between the 0z and 12z EURO run is that our southern stream shortwave is just a tad quicker on this run.  This allows it to amplify more before it comes under the affects of the sinking polar vortex.

I have noticed all modeling today to be a little quicker.  Maybe it was the better sampling and shorter lead time?

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

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Mountains between waynesville and sylva (maggie Valley). You can get above 6,000 ft .

Snowing good up in northern mtns. Sugar and beech web cams look great

Shows what a little elevation will do, has been all rain from the start here in Boone.

Like I've said for about 3 days now, all it would take would be a little interaction between the two streams and we could get this system to workout for us in NC. We've seen the models go down this same exact road too many times to count but it seems people forget that every season.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PackGrad05

PackGrad05

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I'll go ahead and tell you.

 

South and east of Raleigh will be rain or rain/mix.

 

North and west of Raleigh will have snow.  Geographically positioned in the area that is almost always the borderline.

 

My buddy in Brier Creek will text me pictures and videos of snow and I'll look out my window in Fuquay and see rain.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

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I have noticed all modeling today to be a little quicker.  Maybe it was the better sampling and shorter lead time?

Well the data is being better sampled which is a plus.  But also we've got a major system developing just out ahead of it which affects things upstream and downstream.  The models for the current system have been under done which impacts everything behind it.  Yesterday 12z GFS said I was supposed to get .25" of QPF and I'm sitting at 2" on the nose.  LOL.

 

Plus on the Saturday night system there is this tiny piece of vort just a tad out ahead of the main vort which is disrupting things a bit.  You can see this odd looking kink in the 500mb isobar on the front end of the shortwave.  If that goes away or gets less I would expect the system to come in stronger.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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The biggest difference I see between the 0z and 12z EURO run is that our southern stream shortwave is just a tad quicker on this run.  This allows it to amplify more before it comes under the affects of the sinking polar vortex.

crazy thing its trending faster each run...I honestly think we are not much further away from having a really nice storm.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

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crazy thing its trending faster each run...I honestly think we are not much further away from having a really nice storm.

Agreed.  Another thing you can see in that the models are having a very difficult time with this one is that swath of light snow that was supposed to trek across northern MS/AL is not as prevalent yet the sfc low is trending stronger.  There are so many interactions going on I think further trends to stronger are possible.

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burrel2

burrel2

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I guess when I say upstate I'm meaning only three counties and that is oconee, Pickens and Greenville. That is where I'm confusing people I assume. So yes I'm speaking of that line you mention Tocoaa to GSP line. And I understand what you are saying about overcoming those temps. Also I'm not counting on any accumulation even up this way other than possibly .5" if that on grassy areas.My area is approx 25 miles north of I85 in Pickens co. So I should make myself clear when I say upstate.

I've seen this type of setup a dozen times.... Pickens and Oconee Counties, (below 1,000ft elevation), will fair worse than most other counties in the upstate. Greenville, Spartanburg, and Union counties will be colder at the surface when this storm moves through. 

 

I don't see any way that someone in SC below 1,500ft will get accumulations from this storm.  Snow reaching the surface is possible, mainly the farther east you go in the upstate.

 

I'm still rooting for this thing to trend wetter though, as I plan on driving to my in-laws mountains house near Lake Toxaway if the goods are delivered there.

 

 

One Caveat... we haven't gotten to see temp profiles from any of the short range models, as none of them are showing the storm at this point.  Maybe if they pick up on the storm their thermal profiles will look more favorable.

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LovingGulfLows

LovingGulfLows

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Agreed.  Another thing you can see in that the models are having a very difficult time with this one is that swath of light snow that was supposed to trek across northern MS/AL is not as prevalent yet the sfc low is trending stronger.  There are so many interactions going on I think further trends to stronger are possible.

 

Even if we do get the precip, temps are still a huge problem if you go by the models. Those surface and low level temps need to come down.

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fountainguy97

fountainguy97

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I'll go ahead and tell you.

 

South and east of Raleigh will be rain or rain/mix.

 

North and west of Raleigh will have snow.  Geographically positioned in the area that is almost always the borderline.

 

My buddy in Brier Creek will text me pictures and videos of snow and I'll look out my window in Fuquay and see rain.

Surface temps are fine on the EURO basically to New Bern

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Lookout

Lookout

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Agreed, except for the qpf :)  The Doc looked silly while Goofy held the low all along in a  more decent track Which leaves me interested in how the amounts work out.  I've got 1.6 in the bucket from the present system, so if I'm getting cold rain, at least I expect some decent amounts.  I just think with model fluctuations all over the place, these things won't fill in until go time.  Calling any gulf system a bust more than a day out seems premature, lol.  Leaving more room for a winter surprise in the coming weeks.  If any thing is clear to me, and has been for decades, is having a low in the gulf in winter always leaves room for surprises, and betting against it is foolish much of the time, at least until it's past :)  T 

The gfs did so poorly with this system that if the same thing occurred with the precip with this next one, we'd be talking about a much bigger deal. Ended up with well over an inch (with some a lot more)  when the Gfs had something like a tenth or two in general today for quite a while before the most recent runs where it finally bought a clue.  It's a shame that never happens when it's cold enough lol

 

 

Seems to me all the "all hail king EURO" should be "all hail king GFS".  LOL.  Everyone else trended to the GFS...more or less.

Yep..but i can almost promise you that no one will remember it later on when faced with a similar situation. Like i said yesterday, people do not remember the euro busts like they do when the gfs busts. 

I guess when I say upstate I'm meaning only three counties and that is oconee, Pickens and Greenville. That is where I'm confusing people I assume. So yes I'm speaking of that line you mention Tocoaa to GSP line. And I understand what you are saying about overcoming those temps. Also I'm not counting on any accumulation even up this way other than possibly .5" if that on grassy areas.My area is approx 25 miles north of I85 in Pickens co. So I should make myself clear when I say upstate.

I know..i responded because i've seen a number of posts lately saying that because they got snow when it was 40 degrees before that means their 38 sunday will be enough..when in fact it won't be for many unless it trends wetter. 

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Lookout

Lookout

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I've seen this type of setup a dozen times.... Pickens and Oconee Counties, (below 1,000ft elevation), will fair worse than most other counties in the upstate. Greenville, Spartanburg, and Union counties will be colder at the surface when this storm moves through. 

 

I don't see any way that someone in SC below 1,500ft will get accumulations from this storm.  Snow reaching the surface is possible, mainly the farther east you go in the upstate.

 

I'm still rooting for this thing to trend wetter though, as I plan on driving to my in-laws mountains house near Lake Toxaway if the goods are delivered there.

 

 

One Caveat... we haven't gotten to see temp profiles from any of the short range models, as none of them are showing the storm at this point.  Maybe if they pick up on the storm their thermal profiles will look more favorable.

Yep..the good ol leeside screwzone. God i hate it.....from ne ga/eastern ga to sc/upstate is often the very last place to get low level cold in a situation like this. In fact, it's a completely unique screwzone in that regard as no other place in the country east of the rockies even comes close. It's maddening to say the least to see temps 5 or 6 degrees colder than everywhere around here, even down to the gulf coast. The mountains are our friends in cad but they are our worst enemy in this type of situation.

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GaStorm

GaStorm

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That would be a remote possibility versus a likelyhood.  It would take a drastic 700mb and 850mb strength increase to bring low heights and higher rates to negate any boundary issues.

Hoping temps bust for tomorrow like they did for today. Any bit helps. Lol.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
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SPC has a new Max wet bulb option now. 

post-501-0-12707200-1452886562_thumb.png

 

Here's a guide I use based on cases like this where the only warm layer is right at the surface...

 

If surface wet-bulb temperature is...

 

32: Snow or Mostly Snow

33-34: Snow or Rain/Snow Mix

35: Rain/Snow mix

36-37: Rain or Rain/Snow mix

 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

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Hoping temps bust for tomorrow like they did for today. Any bit helps. Lol.

Obviously , Sat night temps and dewpoints will be very critical! Maybe we can trend slightly colder and dryer than models are showing now! The Sunday system seems to be speeding along , so high/mid level clouds could get here early and keep temp up a bit?
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