DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just my thoughts here. I don't think we will see a turn or big phase but we might luck out if it can tick north and give a descent moisture transport into areas cold enough. If we can squeeze out 2 inches it should be seen as a win and as lookout mentioned it just shows that you can't put all your eggs in the Euro basket. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk yea, not going to be a big dog by any means, but if we continue to see the lp trend north we should have good enough rates in nc to overcome the warm bl temps and switch over to snow. most likely will see rain at the onset regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is the Euro showing any kind of interaction with the northern stream or phasing? That to me is what the GFS was selling that the Euro didn't buy. If it's still not showing any phasing I'm not sure it's going to make much difference. Edit, thanks Grit. If there's some phasing...wondering why the moisture still seems so limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is the Euro showing any kind of interaction with the northern stream or phasing? That to me is what the GFS was selling that the Euro didn't buy. If it's still not showing any phasing I'm not sure it's going to make much difference. Yep, did it on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 850s look good, I'm gonna go with torch at the surface! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 yep this is close Light amounts over the carolinas by 54 hours. with a 996mb low a hundred or so miles southeast of charleston. not sure of the surface but at 850mb, 0c is along the coast. regardless of what happens, i hope folks remember just how badly the euro handled this system. Just a few runs ago when everyone was calling it king and a win for it, it had the low in the far northwest carribean or roughly 600 miles south of where it is showing it going this morning. Frankly the gfs kicked it's ass. Agreed, except for the qpf The Doc looked silly while Goofy held the low all along in a more decent track Which leaves me interested in how the amounts work out. I've got 1.6 in the bucket from the present system, so if I'm getting cold rain, at least I expect some decent amounts. I just think with model fluctuations all over the place, these things won't fill in until go time. Calling any gulf system a bust more than a day out seems premature, lol. Leaving more room for a winter surprise in the coming weeks. If any thing is clear to me, and has been for decades, is having a low in the gulf in winter always leaves room for surprises, and betting against it is foolish much of the time, at least until it's past T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 With this type setup, I could see somewhere in WNC below 2500' getting 3"+. The Balsams may get 5"-6" or more. this may sound like a dumb question but what are the balsams ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can someone post the euro snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is the Euro showing any kind of interaction with the northern stream or phasing? That to me is what the GFS was selling that the Euro didn't buy. If it's still not showing any phasing I'm not sure it's going to make much difference. Edit, thanks Grit. If there's some phasing...wondering why the moisture still seems so limited. You didn't ask me, but I think it's such a quick mover it simply doesn't have time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 850s look good, I'm gonna go with torch at the surface! Looks like upstate is upper 30s Sunday morning. I've seen it snow many time around here in upper 30s. Not talking about sticking just snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Balsam_Mountains this may sound like a dumb question but what are the balsams ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 this may sound like a dumb question but what are the balsams ? Mountains between waynesville and sylva (maggie Valley). You can get above 6,000 ft . Snowing good up in northern mtns. Sugar and beech web cams look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Euro saw this on January 6 as a 996 mb low. Today, 48 hours away, it shows a 995 mb low in the same frigging spot. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just as expected Euro followed CMC and UK. Temps are great over PGV toward Wilson and RDU. Eastern NC is around 35 and snow. Oh and temps wont be an issue guys if you get some heavy precip built back your way the cold air aloft will EASILY be pulled to the surface. The latest euro shows that CLT is 45 and light precip while PGV is down to 35 and snow and PGV isn't even under heavy returns at all Patience. I expect to see the models pick up on qpf which will easily solve your temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Euro saw this on January 6 as a 996 mb low. Today, 48 hours away, it shows a 995 mb low in the same frigging spot. Amazing Snap79.png this2.png might be a fluke, but that is dam impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Euro saw this on January 6 as a 996 mb low. Today, 48 hours away, it shows a 995 mb low in the same frigging spot. Amazing Snap79.png this2.png Nevermind the fact that it completely lost the solution. LOL. If it hasn't shown it with ANY sort of consistency I would be impressed. Just two days ago it was in Cuba. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 As steadier precip moves in, SC upstate goes to 35 temp, 33-34 dewpoint....not bad. So key going forward is getting the phased, stronger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 this may sound like a dumb question but what are the balsams ? Series of Mountains in Haywood and Jackson counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Biggest problem with this for everyone except in the higher elevations is surface and even 850 temps. It might snow in north GA but given the warm lower layers do not see anything sticking other than on cars and the like. Even then only 1" at the most. Yawn. Yeah.i'd be lucky to get any flakes at all where i'm at thanks to the warm low levels..which is why i'm considering heading north if it looks like more than just flurries. That said, All though this won't be a big deal in all likelyhood but in a winter where everyone had december replaced with april, even a dusting has to be considered a win. Not to mention the fact that yesterday many had all but written this off completely since the almighty and never wrong "king euro" had it going to cuba. However, it really wouldn't take much more for this going from a novelty to a legit minor winter event (where it's cold enough), if the trends continue through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nevermind the fact that it completely lost the solution. LOL. If it hasn't shown it with ANY sort of consistency I would be impressed. Just two days ago it was in Cuba. LOL we usually see this play out, euro keys in on a storm in the long range and then loses it before bringing it back. does anyone have updated soundings for sc/nc around hr 48? wondering how deep the warm bl will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Seems to me all the "all hail king EURO" should be "all hail king GFS". LOL. Everyone else trended to the GFS...more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 As steadier precip moves in, SC upstate goes to 35 temp, 33-34 dewpoint....not bad. So key going forward is getting the phased, stronger storm exactly. if this storm can turn up the coast even 50 more miles that extra interaction will do wonders for moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS was much more consistent for sure. It wavered a little bit south and came back north, but nothing like the jump the Euro has made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah.i'd be lucky to get any flakes at all where i'm at thanks to the warm low levels..which is why i'm considering heading north if it looks like more than just flurries. That said, All though this won't be a big deal in all likelyhood but in a winter where everyone had december replaced with april, even a dusting has to be considered a win. Not to mention the fact that yesterday many had all but written this off completely since the almighty and never wrong "king euro" had it going to cuba. However, it really wouldn't take much more for this going from a novelty to a legit minor winter event (where it's cold enough), if the trends continue through tomorrow. I agree...I really want to just write this off, but the EURO keeps me thinking...LOL Its actually not that far off from being a much bigger deal, as you are saying..I agree with that. The 2m temps are not awful.. like 36-38 for y'all and 850's are cold enough. so...this could** if the trends keep up** go bonkers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Seems to me all the "all hail king EURO" should be "all hail king GFS". LOL. Everyone else trended to the GFS...more or less. I would fully agree for this system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Seems to me all the "all hail king EURO" should be "all hail king GFS". LOL. Everyone else trended to the GFS...more or less. I think the UKMET and GFS have been the most consistent. Depending on what actually happens with the strength of the low, I think the UKMET could do better since it has had a stronger system. The GFS is still pretty weak compared to the latest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here is KFQD (30 mins north of SC in Rutherford) at 48 on the 12 GFS>. we usually see this play out, euro keys in on a storm in the long range and then loses it before bringing it back. does anyone have updated soundings for sc/nc around hr 48? wondering how deep the warm bl will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here is KFQD (30 mins north of SC in Rutherford) at 48 on the 12 GFS>. Screen Shot 2016-01-15 at 1.27.55 PM.png thanks, that is def manageable with decent precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks like upstate is upper 30s Sunday morning. I've seen it snow many time around here in upper 30s. Not talking about sticking just snowing You need to keep in mind though that only happens if you have low enough surface dewpoints, low freezing levels, low wetbulb zero heights or heavy enough precip to overcome that warm surface layer. Unfortunately, as it stands now, For areas in eastern ga and much of south carolina, upper 30s won't get the job done because freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights aren't low enough to produce much, if any, snow with the amount of precip being shown. Northwest georgia, areas north of gainesville to toccoa to gsp, and a lot of north carolina probably will be cold enough to at least see snow fall. But outside of higher elevations, accumulations will be hard to come by since this will be a quick mover and at best temps will only lower to 33 to 35 if snow manages to reach the ground. For those areas stuck in the low level warmth, you have to keep hoping it trends wetter so there is a chance it can be overcome by decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would fully agree for this system! Euro has been dethroned for a little while now... Some just don't like to admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 going to be so tough to nail down specifics with this system, bl temps are going to be so borderline. could have one side of a county with an inch and the other side with a mix or all rain. going to depend on who gets under the heaviest returns and for how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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