wncsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 UK Met is tucked in! That's not a bad low position at all, if we can only get better moisture transport... i'm telling you we aren't far off from a descent storm.. If you look at today's gulf low, it has tracked farther inland than modeled and with a lot more rain.. just last night only .50 inch or less amounts were progged for WNC now 1.50 + in some areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The high on the UKMET is in a much better spot. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here's a zoomed-in view of the snowfall potential through 54 hours on the 12Z GFS: Thanks calc. Looks good for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks rly good to me. U.K. Cmc usually pair with euro... Big euro run next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You know, the models have been really wrong about the amount of precip before. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ you post this with every storm, it's not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's not a bad low position at all, if we can only get better moisture transport... i'm telling you we aren't far off from a descent storm.. If you look at today's gulf low, it has tracked farther inland than modeled and with a lot more rain.. just last night only .50 inch or less amounts were progged for WNC now 1.50 + in some areas.. Regardless of the track of the low the winds at 700mb are not out of the SW allowing for better moisture transport . Your not going to get a huge moisture increase . The only way is for a phase Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The high on the UKMET is in a much better spot. I like that. Really that's the key now the low track and moisture seem to be coming around to a favorable solution, now we just need it 5 degrees colder at the surface and this could be a decent little event to kick things off..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 UKMET further north,Tampa area at 00z to off Brunswick,GA this run and a tick stronger. More moisture thrown back inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I know it's late in the game, but FWIW the GEFS is noticeably faster and stronger with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 folks, lets keep things on topic. Keep the one liners, jokes and chit chat stuff to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Question. What would it take for this storm to phase better? *Edit* Or phase at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Question. What would it take for this storm to phase better? And when would we know for sure if it is or isn't going to phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z euro is a little faster and north of the 0z run. Now has the low just south of the florida panhandle at 42 hours. by 48..its over north florida. quite a bit more precip in north georgia at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO looks a lot better to me @48 Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO looks a lot better to me @48 Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk How is the high placement and strength..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A few ticks north and a lot of people will be in the game on this. Euro doesn't go far enough north but it looked better to me than the last nights run. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A few ticks north and a lot of people will be in the game on this. Euro doesn't go far enough north but it looked better to me than the last nights run. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk yep this is close Light amounts over the carolinas by 54 hours. with a 996mb low a hundred or so miles southeast of charleston. not sure of the surface but at 850mb, 0c is along the coast. regardless of what happens, i hope folks remember just how badly the euro handled this system. Just a few runs ago when everyone was calling it king and a win for it, it had the low in the far northwest carribean or roughly 600 miles south of where it is showing it going this morning. Frankly the gfs kicked it's ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 looks like it tried to make the turn, if we can keep these northwest shifts into the 00z models tonight we may have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 yep this is close Light amounts over the carolinas by 54 hours. with a 996mb low a hundred or so miles southeast of charleston. not sure of the surface but at 850mb, 0c is along the coast. regardless of what happens, i hope folks remember just how badly the euro handled this system. Just a few runs ago when everyone was calling it king and a win for it, it had the low in the far northwest carribean or roughly 600 miles south of where it is showing it going this morning. Frankly the gfs kicked it's ass. yea gfs did fairly well 5-6 days out. this shows that the nw trend is still alive and well. once it got within 72 it started to tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 yep this is close Light amounts over the carolinas by 54 hours. with a 996mb low a hundred or so miles southeast of charleston. not sure of the surface but at 850mb, 0c is along the coast. regardless of what happens, i hope folks remember just how badly the euro handled this system. Just a few runs ago when everyone was calling it king and a win for it, it had the low in the far northwest carribean or roughly 600 miles south of where it is showing it going this morning. Frankly the gfs kicked it's ass. GFS has been winning a lot lately...maybe it's the fast Pacific flow. This was noticeably better for sure. Looks like UKMet. Need to see low level temps when they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ukie was what 996. Game still on beleive 0z will be wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I can see @42 hours the low is more north and seems to be taking a more NE track than east like it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ukie was what 996. Game still on beleive 0z will be wetter agree. models still seem to be playing catch up now that the sw is onshore. euro has a nice look @48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just my thoughts here. I don't think we will see a turn or big phase but we might luck out if it can tick north and give a descent moisture transport into areas cold enough. If we can squeeze out 2 inches it should be seen as a win and as lookout mentioned it just shows that you can't put all your eggs in the Euro basket. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 With this type setup, I could see somewhere in WNC below 2500' getting 3"+. The Balsams may get 5"-6" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro sitting at 995 at 48HR Ukie was what 996. Game still on beleive 0z will be wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The low was exiting the coast below Jacksonville (roughly Daytona) before, exiting at Jacksonville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Biggest problem with this for everyone except in the higher elevations is surface and even 850 temps. It might snow in north GA but given the warm lower layers do not see anything sticking other than on cars and the like. Even then only 1" at the most. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The good runs over the past few days have the weak northern stream energy dropping down through the Rockies phasing into, and behind, the southern wave, allowing it to turn the corner - happened on this Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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