wncsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like a typical I 40 N and mountain special to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The main take away here is that it didnt trend towards a suppressed solution. It will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro shows less of a suppressed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Roxboro and mountain special. Just like every time. RDU will get collllld rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like a great setup here and for the western Piedmont and foothills for what I can tell for a few hours of heavy wet snow. That setup works out here quite a bit (even January 2013 was great here while most rained). Even last February was similar in that BL temps were very marginal (mid-40s hours before the storm). The details aren't that important, but the fact it trended less suppressed is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 this = rain for a lot of us. temps at 40 for rdu. *snip Zooming in on the SE... Not bad. Not bad at all. Looks like a typical I 40 N and mountain special to me Agreed. For now. Lots of time to still change, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's about the most perfect setup you can get for the coldest rain you can achieve. Mountains look great with that track. Franklin, Met, et. al. should be stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The main take away here is that it didnt trend towards a suppressed solution. It will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro shows less of a suppressed system.it keeps trending to a more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe the Euro will have the same solution but colder. Isn't the GFS known for having temps too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe the Euro will have the same solution but colder. Isn't the GFS known for having temps too warm? Not with that track and lack of a high to the north, it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 this is a cold rain for rdu unless we get lucky (probably wont) and get heavy wet snow as it pulls away. ive seen this story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As others said, during heavy rates RDU may see some flakes.. otherwise, cold rain. Seen it a million times. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not with that track and lack of a high to the north, it won't be. Well, might be wrong and the track could be closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gfs climbs the coast and nails Boston. It has to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That was a rather significant jump NW from previous runs and it really winds up as it races past us. I wouldn't put much stock in the details until the EC climbs on board. Overall, I would say that was an encouraging run if you're looking for something more than a few token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the arctic unloads behind the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As others said, during heavy rates RDU may see some flakes.. otherwise, cold rain. Seen it a million times. Next. and we still have 96+ hrs until the event, most likely will continue to trend nw. like you said, i have seen this so many times. this is a 38 and rain situation while points to the west get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That was a rather significant jump NW from previous runs and it really winds up as it races past us. I wouldn't put much stock in the details until the EC climbs on board. Overall, I would say that was an encouraging run if you're looking for something more than a few token flakes. It basically jumped to the solution the Para GFS has shown for the past day, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 and we still have 96+ hrs until the event, most likely will continue to trend nw. like you said, i have seen this so many times. this is a 38 and rain situation while points to the west get smoked. Also seen this before where the models start trending more NW during this time only to come back a little farther south and east with the track a day or two before it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It basically jumped to the solution the Para GFS has shown for the past day, which is interesting.wave the flag! We defeated those Europeans before we can do it again. Who has the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks good Calc. This is the type (as shown in this current run) that splits Rutherford County in half. If that happens, your area will see some wet white snow. Zooming in on the SE... Not bad. Not bad at all. Agreed. For now. Lots of time to still change, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, might be wrong and the track could be closer to the coast. Closer to the coast means warmer. That's a good one to write down. It needs to be farther south and east, not closer to to the coast. And I'm talking about for you and me. The foothills and mountains look good for some accumulation here...maybe even parts of the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I really believe the GFS is too warm. I like this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sure does!! And the arctic unloads behind the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Closer to the coast means warmer. That's a good one to write down. It needs to be farther south and east, not closer to to the coast. And I'm talking about for you and me. The foothills and mountains look good for some accumulation here...maybe even parts of the piedmont. Yeah, that's what I meant, further south and east. And like I said, we have seen this before where the model has it going NW during this time only to bring it back further south and east a couple of days later right before the system gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I really believe the GFS is too warm. I like this setup. Why? And I'm not being sarcastic - is there something specific that makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 gfs says hows this for high temps next monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still plenty of time to get HP up there if trends are in our favor. There's really no "low" pressure either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 850mb low runs roughly from Magnolia Lane to Kill Devil Hills. 850 low is closed and strengthening along the way...so, a dynamic model run there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Even just a couple of inches of snow would be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here you go ..... Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/13/16, 11:17 Real threat for major winter storm is Sunday into Monday from south into the east as arctic hammer drops se toward southern branch short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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