downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 850s would be no problem at RDU. If we can get the rates up then we have snow. Right this setup is a good one for us the easiest temp issue to overcome is a shallow warm layer, if there is decent rates we should see snow over a lot of NC at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z rgem is much slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Right this setup is a good one for us the easiest temp issue to overcome is a shallow warm layer, if there is decent rates we should see snow over a lot of NC at least.... need to watch the short range models to see if they trend with better precip for nc. really going to be close as to who can get the rain to switch to snow. 850s are great, but at 38 we will need more than drizzle to get the snow in rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At 48 more precip over N GA, NW NC, and upstate. Snow breaking out over N GA and NC with probably a mix across NW SC. Soundings don't support snow for the upstate, it doesn't appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 CLT is right on the edge of snow at 12z on Sunday as just the very bottom level of the atmosphere is above freezing. Looks solid to the N&W though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can you link the site you are pulling sounding from? Soundings don't support snow for the upstate, it doesn't appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 need to watch the short range models to see if they trend with better precip for nc. really going to be close as to who can get the rain to switch to snow. 850s are great, but at 38 we will need more than drizzle to get the snow in rdu. No doubt, but if the models trend continues slowly getting stronger etc then maybe we can get lucky.....I got a even bigger temp issue here so I really need the rates, and even then its iffy as hell.... the upside is I am closer to the low, if this does pan out there might be a area where the precip rates support decent snow on the NW edge of the heavier/steadier precip...might see a someone in NC get 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 CLT is right on the edge of snow at 12z on Sunday as just the very bottom level of the atmosphere is below freezing. Looks solid to the N&W though. if clt can get under a decent band it should swithc to a mix/all snow for a bit. no accums but snow falling is a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here's a zoomed-in view of the snowfall potential through 54 hours on the 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 if clt can get under a decent band it should swithc to a mix/all snow for a bit. no accums but snow falling is a win in my book. Man, that is miserable weather to watch a football game in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The trough is just ever so slightly negative at hour 48, but then it completely flattens out by hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can you link the site you are pulling sounding from? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd feel better if we were starting this event with more significant dew point depressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd feel better if we were starting this event with more significant dew point depressions. I am still learning but are you saying accums may be much less than modeled for some due to virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am still learning but are you saying accums may be much less than modeled for some due to virga? Wha the means is that when precip begins to fall, it cools the air through evaporative cooling. If the dew points are low enough to start with, the precip will cause the temps to fall toward the wet bulb, and if it's just right, cause it to fall below freezing. If the dew point is not low enough, the temps can only fall so far before hitting that wet bulb temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am still learning but are you saying accums may be much less than modeled for some due to virga? No. A dew point depression affects your wet bulb. If you start off at 35/31, you can only drop so low. If you start at 35/21, you're going to be able to cool the atmosphere quicker, wet bulb lower and accumulate more efficiently. Of course, the higher the difference between temp and dew point, the more you lose to virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How's next weekend event looking gfs. At work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There's a slight depression above our heads but it just does the job. The surface is what worries me the most as it can only cool to 2.3C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Lot of mtn guys getting snow on the front side this a.m.wasn't modeled due to BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How's next weekend event looking gfs. At work Next Wednesday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Gfs looks good for next wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Next Wednesday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Appreciate. Hits keep rolling. Gonna nickel and dime our way to seasonal avg with trash can lid and mulch covers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Soundings don't support snow for the upstate, it doesn't appear. That's why I said probably more of a mix here if we see any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd feel better if we were starting this event with more significant dew point depressions. Yeah, low level temps/boundary layer conditions are certainly not that good for south carolina/eastern half of north ga. Much better both in terms of lower freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights in north carolina, northwest ga/mountains. Probably is rain where i'm at here regardless unless precip is much heavier. Although if it looks like more than just a few flakes, i might head northwest. I think roughly from northern burbs of atlanta to gainesville to toccoa will probably be the southern extent of any snow here in georgia...although i wouldn't be surprised to see it end as snow in atlanta/west ga right before ending. Further east toward athens, the upstate, etc..doesn't look very good thanks to the upper savannah river valley snow killer bubble that so often blocks low level cold in situations like this. One thing to note is the gfs did horribly with this current low..it was too far south with the track of the low (shifted at least 50 or 75 miles north just since the 18z run yesterday) and looks like convective feedback had an impact on totals in the interior southeast. (which is interesting because the gfs once again shows signs of it with the next system). But As late as yesterday's 18z run, the large precip shield this morning was virtually non existent on the gfs and was woefully underdone over north ga, alabama, TN, and western nc. Even as late as the 0z run, it was way too light. To the nams credit it picked up on it sooner. I didn't pay much attention the the euro prior to yesterdays 12z run on todays rain but it did a better job with it...however it too was still too light over alabama/tn...gem as well. The point in all this being is that although this doesn't necessarily mean the precip with this system will also be greater, i certainly wouldn't be shocked at all if precip is heavier than currently projected further inland. It's a bit concerning though that the nam isn't biting as you would expect the nam, with it's wet bias, would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's why I said probably more of a mix here if we see any.I wouldn't expect a flake with the sounding at KCEU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This is our first storm thread of the winter. Sad I know. Let's get back to providing some basis and analysis for our statements. Otherwise, post wishes and hopes in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Did anyone else like the look of the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 UK Met is tucked in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Did anyone else like the look of the Canadian? Better than I did yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Did anyone else like the look of the Canadian? I really do like that. Snow for the western part of that shield too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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