Jon Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That low is almost in the perfect spot...Certainly interesting, 997mb low in the areas where the Euro EPS was sniffing out a few stronger ensemble members.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Certainly interesting, 997mb low in the areas where the Euro EPS was sniffing out a few stronger ensemble members....I fully believe that the Euro and GFS will have a few ensembles that show big dogs if either of them have the low close to that spot. The 12z runs are going to make everyone hold their breath in excitement lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Certainly interesting, 997mb low in the areas where the Euro EPS was sniffing out a few stronger ensemble members.... Here alot of praise for the RGEM. Maybe Grit has a idea how good it does 48 hrs out. But thats a pretty hefty LP in perfect spot for NC, espeacilly if it exits between Jax and Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here alot of praise for the RGEM. Maybe Grit has a idea how good it does 48 hrs out. But thats a pretty hefty LP in perfect spot for NC, espeacilly if it exits between Jax and Savannah In my opinion the RGEM does well with except with temps. The last few years it's had a cold bias . I know it's busted twice in the last year for my area with temps 24 hours out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here alot of praise for the RGEM. Maybe Grit has a idea how good it does 48 hrs out. But thats a pretty hefty LP in perfect spot for NC, espeacilly if it exits between Jax and Savannah Snowgoose said yesterday that the RGEM tended to be too amped up at the end of the run. I guess many of the hi-res models like it and the NAM have the same issue. It's very accurate around 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Snowgoose said yesterday that the RGEM tended to be too amped up at the end of the run. I guess many of the hi-res models like it and the NAM have the same issue. It's very accurate around 24hrs. And 24hrs is when it shows a lot more northern phasing.... Hmmm.... 12z nam inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If you look at the precip field for the 6z RGEM at hour 48 it has a 1000 mb low, strengthening and only throwing precip 50-100 miles north of the low. It would have to rank up there with the worst "soon to be sub 1000mb" Miller A's of all time if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 the lp system for today is stronger on the nam out to 24, our lp over tx. lets see how the nam handles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am more inclined to punt with 4th and 8 at midfield, than go for it with this setup. What is telling is the structure of the vort after LA and along the NE Gulf. Rather than sharpening and taking on a more neg tilt, the northern stream crashes over the top holding the axis back. The result is a waning surface reflection coming out of the northern Gulf, as opposed to a deepening system. The energy(s) in question should be fully sampled with the 12z runs today. If there was margin for this to trend back to at best a nuisance type deal, I would expect to see some spread in the ensembles as they are supposed to account for minor variations in the initial conditions as T is stepped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 nam precip shield looks further north to me @39. sfc low right below la. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am more inclined to punt with 4th and 8 at midfield, than go for it with this setup. What is telling is the structure of the vort after LA and along the NE Gulf. Rather than sharpening and taking on a more neg tilt, the northern stream crashes over the top holding the axis back. The result is a waning surface reflection coming out of the northern Gulf, as opposed to a deepening system. The energy(s) in question should be fully sampled with the 12z runs today. If there was margin for this to trend back to at best a nuisance type deal, I would expect to see some spread in the ensembles as they are supposed to account for minor variations in the initial conditions as T is stepped. Yea I figure now if someone can get an inch out of this system it's a win. One thing that is always a big warning sign is when there is little moisture over the east side of Texas. Our good storms always blow up around there then start trucking east. This one gets going around Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am more inclined to punt with 4th and 8 at midfield, than go for it with this setup. What is telling is the structure of the vort after LA and along the NE Gulf. Rather than sharpening and taking on a more neg tilt, the northern stream crashes over the top holding the axis back. The result is a waning surface reflection coming out of the northern Gulf, as opposed to a deepening system. The energy(s) in question should be fully sampled with the 12z runs today. If there was margin for this to trend back to at best a nuisance type deal, I would expect to see some spread in the ensembles as they are supposed to account for minor variations in the initial conditions as T is stepped. That makes sense why the qpf is so clustered toward the center. I always thought its best to have the ns come in behind the ss and catch it for a phase and give the neg tilt to the trough. What your saying is the ns comes down on top almost in front to a dgree and it kinda rolls over as oppossed to pivoting the lp at capture and kicking the trough negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM took a jump but it isn't going to cut it. About ready to call this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM took a jump but it isn't going to cut it. About ready to call this one. Good size jump. Two more like that and it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM took a jump but it isn't going to cut it. About ready to call this one. Yep. Low crosses Orlando. It moved north about 50 miles and is a bit more organized at the surface, but it's not enough. The storm never gets cranking - 1006mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM took a jump but it isn't going to cut it. About ready to call this one. pretty decent jump, hopefully it is a sign of things to come in the 12z suite with the gfs and euro. still gives nc snow showers sunday morn. 12z: 06z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Also NAM is kinda playing catch up. If models trend that far north they will be super close if not a good storm. NAM is much wetter through end of storm! has some good returns at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No one really thought they were gonna get 3-4" out of this anyway did they with the setup? That never was even being shown in the first place, if memory serves me correctly. Anyway I still think most around NW NC, N GA, upstate will see atleast a period of flurries or even a few snow showers. No one could really expect to see much more than that out of this. So we all should take this minor event be happy with what we see and move on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No one really thought they were gonna get 3-4" out of this anyway did they with the setup? That never was even being shown in the first place, if memory serves me correctly. Anyway I still think most around NW NC, N GA, upstate will see atleast a period of flurries or even a few snow showers. No one could really expect to see much more than that out of this. So we all should take this minor event be happy with what we see and move on to the next one.Nope. I'm gonna milk every flake out of this blame storm haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, the 6z GFS para is a bit stronger and north of the 0z. I don't think it's going to be enough in the end, but there is a north trend and stronger low on almost every model. It also seems to be coming in a bit faster (1-2 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, the 6z GFS para is a bit stronger and north of the 0z. I don't think it's going to be enough in the end, but there is a north trend and stronger low on almost every model. It also seems to be coming in a bit faster (1-2 hours). 00z euro para looks north of op too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 gfs precip looks a little north thru 36. edit: nearly identical @42. dont think this is going to be a boom run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 more precip thrown back into sc/nc than 06z. rdu looks like mostly rain, maybe mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The clown shows 1-2" for the NW Piedmont and foothills. Little better than last run. I think we're basically out of time for big changes. Let's just hope the northern piece wettens up some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Map through 48. A slight increase for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 more precip thrown back into sc/nc than 06z. rdu looks like mostly rain, maybe mix. 850s would be no problem at RDU. If we can get the rates up then we have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Lp a little stronger maybe a tad north alittle faster as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 continues to trend ever so slightly stronger with the lp, 1000mb off the coast. no big n trend though this run. winners will be where you can limit the mixing and get good enough rates to overcome the warm boundary layer. gfs has rdu around 37/38 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Light but more moisture north or the 06 run at 48. prefer baby steps over big jumps in this range.....still a lot ?'s but overall it looks better than it did yesterday by a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At 48 more precip over N GA, NW NC, and upstate. Snow breaking out over N GA and NC with probably a mix across NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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