Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Definitely moved north for 0z. Light precip over much of the western half of NC. Big stripe of nothing in a line from Columbia to Norfolk. Surface temps are kinda torchy. Mid to upper 40's later in the day for much of NC. I don't expect much accumulation in the upstate, but I think confidence is high enough to say we will see some snow showers across the area sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't expect much accumulation in the upstate, but I think confidence is high enough to say we will see some snow showers across the area sun morning. Trends would indicate that upstate may see some flake-age come Sunday morning. The timing of the light precip lines up with the coldest part of the day (early morning) Sunday for those looking for some mood flakes in upstate SC and western half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 03z SREF Plumes look better. GSO is up to nearly a half inch with one crazy plume spitting out over 6". Considering they showed no snow12 hours ago, that's a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 03z SREF Plumes look better. GSO is up to nearly a half inch with one crazy plume spitting out over 6". Considering they showed no snow a 12 hours ago, that's a change. Well if we are following the SREF snow now.... "ARP2" shows 0.10 inch of snow even in Columbia, SC! So throw that member out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 6z nam is about 100 miles south of the other models. The surface low is better organized than previous runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS has a track similar to 0z. Less snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wow...can honestly say I'm surprised with the N trend in the GFS but even more surprised at the Euro, especially the EPS. Here are the low locations for 12z vs 0z runs 12z New 00z run Lots of stronger ens members on the NW side of the mean low location, so we may see a north trend continue with the 12z suite. Big changes should happen with today's runs if they are to occur. Seeing the Euro ensemble mean change that drastically in one run inside 72 hours is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 RAH still not impressed.. mentions all rain. or perhaps a rain/snow mix with little accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wow, very little talk on the Euro run. It sounded like it was much better and further north, but still didn't phase. But what's the bottom line with snow? Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 RAH still not impressed.. mentions all rain. or perhaps a rain/snow mix with little accumulation A mixed rain/snow event (or even just rain) is very possible especially if rates are low. RAH will highlight this scenario until they're sure rates will be heavier; which could be right up to the event. I would do that if I was them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 1500 ft snowstorms are awesome. I told you guys not to give up so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 1500 ft snowstorms are awesome. I told you guys not to give up so early. Damn I'm at 1050'.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A mixed rain/snow event (or even just rain) is very possible especially if rates are low. RAH will highlight this scenario until they're sure rates will be heavier; which could be right up to the event. I would do that if I was them. Yeah the systems should be sampled by this evening and if the models continue with something similar to the Euro track and or wetter then I expect the NWS to get a bit more aggressive.....they added a 20% chance of showers here late Sat into Sun morning but that seems to early looking at the models..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 All hail the GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 All hail the GFS?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 great look on the euro last night...and i agree w/ jon. seeing the eps have several members right on the fl coast and amped leads me to believe this could very well be a boom run @12z. no coincidence that the nw trend started as the sampling of the sw improved. today's 12z runs should have the sw properly sampled and we should get a good idea on the strength and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Damn I'm at 1050'.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Model warm bias should account for about 500 ft, so you're 50 ft to the good. You made it in...by the skin of your teeth. Let me know what it looks like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GSP is calling this a NON-EVENT and more of a conversation piece..? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro called it back on the 6th when I posted this. So we WILL have a 996 low, take it to the bank. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GSP is calling this a NON-EVENT and more of a conversation piece..? LOL rdu disco says the same. their past 2 afds have had some snark, i love it. "COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT WHERE MODELS SHOW SURFACE WET-BULBS AROUND FREEZING. AT THIS TIME PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE TOO LIGHT AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A "GEE WHIZ" SIGHTING OF SNOW." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can you blame them? I mean let's face it folks we have border line temps and models are spitting out at most like .25 qpf and that's probably more in the way of snow showers than a straight snow. That would be pretty much a non event. We have the luxury of dreaming and making wild guesses of where we want things to go. They don't. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wonder what they will say when 12z euro has a 990 cranking out big fatties all across nc and sc at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I honestly think that if the Euro pushes it a little more north and it phases better we might be in for a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I honestly think that if the Euro pushes it a little more north and it phases better we might be in for a surprise... Yeah we arnt looking for another 200 miles north. We need the storm to trend a tad stronger and maybe 50miles north... The phase will do the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah we arnt looking for another 200 miles north. We need the storm to trend a tad stronger and maybe 50miles north... The phase will do the restYes. We're really not far off from having a much bigger storm. Not likely but it has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can you blame them? I mean let's face it folks we have border line temps and models are spitting out at most like .25 qpf and that's probably more in the way of snow showers than a straight snow. That would be pretty much a non event. We have the luxury of dreaming and making wild guesses of where we want things to go. They don't. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk agree. and thee 6z gefs members are scattered. some with a low cranking right on the fl panhandle while others suppressed and dry. so much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wonder what they will say when 12z euro has a 990 cranking out big fatties all across nc and sc at 12zIt's gonna suck to reel this back in, and the big fatties are raindrops! Temps will be a big issue, we might be saved if precip arrives around daybreak, but if it got to RDU in the afternoon, snow chances would be toast! My forecast high is 60 Saturday, so ground temps will be be an issue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That low is almost in the perfect spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I have a feeling this year the mountains are going to hurt gsp for snow. Blocking the cold from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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