Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I remember a few years ago it was 51 or really close to that and PGV had flurries It snowed here at 65 degrees once. Of course I was dreaming so i'm not sure that counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Got to get the Doc on board somewhat, In order to really bite..... My thoughts exactly. May come out singing 'How dry I am' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The problem isn't the temps in the upper 30's, it's the dewpoints being so high. You need wet bulb temps at the sfc to at least be 34-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If it snows hard enough it can stick at 50 degrees !! The thing is that if snow is making it to the surface with the BL in the 40s, it means that the BL is very thin. If heavy snow continues, the colder temps will be brought down to the surface through dynamic cooling, etc. and you'll generally end up in the 32-34 degree range once it's all said and done. Of course, the warm BL is rarely thin enough to get snow at the surface with temperatures in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I've got a feeling the Euro is gonna be more north this run, and getting closer to the other models. And if it does I think it's game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is alone now. It will trend north. how much? no clue but it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdawg11 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's going to get fun if the Euro keeps trending North Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ensemble 0z gefs says trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 My thoughts exactly. May come out singing 'How dry I am' If Euro comes north some, and shows some better signs at 500mb it may be game on for a lgt event. Which I'll take and run with it.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 When does the Euro take the stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The ukie matches gfs and can. I'll be shocked if euro doesn't at a minimum look like the ukie. Euro with higher res may be the one who over amps at 0z as well. Anyway saw GEFS has come way north on other board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is alone now. It will trend north. how much? no clue but it will The ukie inside 72 is a great clue what euro will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The ukie inside 72 is a great clue what euro will do. And we ALL know what it is showing. I wont be surprised to see the low to turn the coast and end up abt 75-100 miles off Hatteras as maybe a 992 low. if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 And we ALL know what it is showing. I wont be surprised to see the low to turn the coast and end up abt 75-100 miles off Hatteras as maybe a 992 low. if trends continue And we ALL know what it is showing. I wont be surprised to see the low to turn the coast and end up abt 75-100 miles off Hatteras as maybe a 992 low. if trends continue Wouldn't suprised me the least bit. I agree with nc weather post today. At 5h the 12z euro was real real close. Course close doesn't get it done. Anyway we need it to deepen a notch or 2 and it'll increase qpf and suck in colder air I think. Course the waa is always a legit concern as well. Who in Europe chose 1:00 am to run a model out to be sent out to the front lines without a gun in a one man platoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wouldn't suprised me the least bit. I agree with nc weather post today. At 5h the 12z euro was real real close. Course close doesn't get it done. Anyway we need it to deepen a notch or 2 and it'll increase qpf and suck in colder air I think. Course the waa is always a legit concern as well. Who in Europe chose 1:00 am to run a model out to be sent out to the front lines without a gun in a one man platoon. maybe their clocks are all wrong,jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wouldn't suprised me the least bit. I agree with nc weather post today. At 5h the 12z euro was real real close. Course close doesn't get it done. Anyway we need it to deepen a notch or 2 and it'll increase qpf and suck in colder air I think. Course the waa is always a legit concern as well. Who in Europe chose 1:00 am to run a model out to be sent out to the front lines without a gun in a one man platoon. Also of note IF this does turn up the coast I think the track will be along the Gulf Stream. Snowlover91 sent me the image. The Gulf Stream can create a path of least resistance that storms tend to follow. IF we get a phase this won't be 200miles offshore at all. And the snow totals won't be a trace either. If euro trends as much as gfs did euro will show a storm up the east coast. Qpf and temps will be ironed out after the storm strength is decided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 When does the Euro take the stage? 1am-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Also of note IF this does turn up the coast I think the track will be along the Gulf Stream. Snowlover91 sent me the image. image.png The Gulf Stream can create a path of least resistance that storms tend to follow. IF we get a phase this won't be 200miles offshore at all. And the snow totals won't be a trace either. If euro trends as much as gfs did euro will show a storm up the east coast. Qpf and temps will be ironed out after the storm strength is decided Am I correct that those type storms wrap in their on cold air, especially on the NW side of the Low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes a storm off the coast if strong enough will help wrap cold air into its NW quadrant and possibly even create some cold of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes a storm off the coast if strong enough will help wrap cold air into its NW quadrant and possibly even create some cold of its own. Thanks that's what I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting 2100 SREF has a mean of 1.25" of snow on Sunday it RDU. I'm seeing 0.08". For some reason, OKC is the default airport the site starts out on. You have to scroll down to the map, zoom to your area and find your airport button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm seeing 0.08". For some reason, OKC is the default airport the site starts out on. You have to scroll down to the map, zoom to your area and find your airport button. Don't get stuck in your driveway!!! lol 0.30 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm seeing 0.08". For some reason, OKC is the default airport the site starts out on. You have to scroll down to the map, zoom to your area and find your airport button. Thanks Jonathon for pointing that out I had it bookmarked for RDU and I thought that was the location that opened by default. I deleted my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I hear Doc may be looking good early! Big changes stronger, might phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 999 mb LP SSE of New Orleans at hr 54. 12z was ~200 miles SW of that position at that same time. I do not think this run is going to cut it, but it is another big shift. However, we're running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's way north This could start getting intresting real quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This could start getting intresting real quick! Yes, GREAT trends tonight from the Doc.!!! Not quiet there, but want take much at all, tomorrow 12z runs will be make or break. I'm very encourage tonight for at least seeing some snow flying Sunday for a lot of people.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Definitely moved north for 0z. Light precip over much of the western half of NC. Big stripe of nothing in a line from Columbia to Norfolk. Surface temps are kinda torchy. Mid to upper 40's later in the day for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.