burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 CMC hopping aboard the GFS train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Canadian is about as close as you can get to a Miller A without it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yep, very interesting setup here if it plays out like that. I'm a little skeptical to jump all board with so much energy flying around. Still different options on the table...but usually when you get that kind of setup it can overperform due to all the dynamics of it. Ukie will be interesting in a few to see exactly where it pins the tail on the donkey. Meaning sfc low coord and strength. No way we have a low depeeing sub 1000 come off Jax on a ne heading even if it's not fully turning and get a good 3 to 6 hour slug of qpf thrown back up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Canadian brings snow into NC & NW SC at hr 60. Big change. EDIT: Poppin' across the state at hr 66. (not a lot, but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Canadian...it began to make the turn but couldn't quit get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No way this is happening haha. So, we have the GFS/NAM/GEM all showing some snow in the Carolinas (and even some in S VA!) right now after everyone wrote it off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well if these trends keep it up I can't wait to see the RAH AFD tomorrow THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH THEPREVIOUSLY-PREFERRED "SUPPRESSED" MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TOTHE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WELL OFFSHORE THESOUTHEAST US COAST SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY QUELLEDALL OF THE (UNNECESSARY) HYPE FROM PERFECT PROGGING OF GFS SOLUTIONSFOR THE ALLEGED SNOWSTORM -OR LACK THEREOF- FOR CENTRAL NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No way this is happening haha. So, we have the GFS/NAM/GEM all showing some snow in the Carolinas (and even some in S VA!) right now after everyone wrote it off... Such is the model world! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What a comeback! It ain't over until it's over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What a comeback! It ain't over until it's over!Go back to sleep, your dreaming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yep look at past storms guys. I always use that as a stand point. When the models do this typically the storm does this etc.. Works out pretty nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not sure about the Georgia precip on the GFS due to low resolution I do think there may be a hole between the mountains and the stuff over the far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well, it certainly is nice to see it trend better as we get closer instead of the other way around. You have to think the models have a better idea now with better data to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not sure about the Georgia precip on the GFS due to low resolution I do think there may be a hole between the mountains and the stuff over the far south SnowGoose - any thoughts on sfc temp bias with the GFS?...I know it's been an issue in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would still toss the GFS in a heartbeat if the EURO holds serve next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How can it be rain in upstate with 850s in the -2 to -5 range and 2m temps in 30s? Here's what the soundings say for GSP... hr57 - 850 is 0.4, Sfc is 38 temp, 35 dpt hr60 - 850 is -1.1, Sfc is 38 temp, 36 dpt hr63 - 850 is -2.3, Sfc is 40 temp, 37 dpt That's likely all rain if the model is 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here's what the soundings say for GSP... hr57 - 850 is 0.4, Sfc is 38 temp, 35 dpt hr60 - 850 is -1.1, Sfc is 38 temp, 36 dpt hr63 - 850 is -2.3, Sfc is 40 temp, 37 dpt That's likely all rain if the model is 100% correct I could be wrong but that tells me the upstate could be a Rn/Sn mix. But again I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 CHECK PLS! Wow, the Canadian brings the precip shield almost up to D.C. this run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The 0z euro definitely has my attention tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The 0z euro definitely has my attention tonight Got to get the Doc on board somewhat, In order to really bite..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I wouldn't get wrapped up in the Temps quite yet. This storm WILL turn further up the coast. All indications leading to it right now. Temps cant be looked at seriously until tomorrow evening maybe IF models decided on a track. But we can expect most of us to be pretty marginal but just cold enough for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 North trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I wouldn't get wrapped up in the Temps quite yet. This storm WILL turn further up the coast. All indications leading to it right now. Temps cant be looked at seriously until tomorrow evening maybe IF models decided on a track. But we can expect most of us to be pretty marginal but just cold enough for snow I've seen it snow hard here at 42° But sticking is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I wonder how much more NW it can get from here on out. I've seen maybe 250 miles difference at this point get achieved in past storms. If this a real trend. I'd love to see a repeat of historial storms that basically dumped snow from the Mississippi to the coast from about 38 north down to the 1-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I've seen it snow hard here at 42° But sticking is a different story. If it snows hard enough it can stick at 50 degrees !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If it snows hard enough it can stick at 50 degrees !! I remember a few years ago it was 51 or really close to that and PGV had flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I've seen it snow hard here at 42° But sticking is a different story. It snowed here once in late April at 41 degrees, the snow was clumping in the air and coming down in hand sized clusters. It snowed almost 2 inches in an hour that day with warm ground temps. If it snows hard enough it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If it snows hard enough it can stick at 50 degrees !! It wouldn't last long and it would have to be silver dollar sized locust!! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.