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1/17/16 Winter Weather Threat


packfan98

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Told you guys :hug:    Just as I thought models all began to agree and now we have ALL models shifting north SLOWLY.  Now the slow part of the trend is actually EXTREMELY encouraging.  This isn't grasping at straws this is an ACTUAL NW trend inside 70 hrs... I expect the sampling tonight to continue the NW trend maybe see a bigger jump 06z 12z tmrw then that's it it will lock down

 

PERFECT PERFECT PERFECT

 

OH and BTW GFS is very very close to an actual phase and a low going up the coast.  notice all the 500 energy that is showing up over NC.... that's some real interaction

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We have to get the max moisture wrung out from the up glide coming counter clockwise off the atlantic. Not only does the rise in topography create this reverse upslope enhancement off the atlantic, but should have a lee side trough in the piedmont somewhere I would think with the northern stream coming into play, almost like a cold front providing extra lift as well.

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We have to get the max moisture wrung out from the up glide coming counter clockwise off the atlantic. Not only does the rise in topography create this reverse upslope enhancement off the atlantic, but should have a lee side trough in the piedmont somewhere I would think with the northern stream coming into play, almost like a cold front providing extra lift as well.

 

Yep, very interesting setup here if it plays out like that. I'm a little skeptical to jump all board with so much energy flying around. Still different options on the table...but usually when you get that kind of setup it can overperform due to all the dynamics of it. 

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We have to get the max moisture wrung out from the up glide coming counter clockwise off the atlantic. Not only does the rise in topography create this reverse upslope enhancement off the atlantic, but should have a lee side trough in the piedmont somewhere I would think with the northern stream coming into play, almost like a cold front providing extra lift as well.

Exactly.  Notice the HP to the north has trended weaker that's a big player into our NW trend.  Also the vort continues to come in stronger and stronger very interesting setup indeed

 

Hey scroll up to Doppler's images.  Check out the pressure fall up off the coast... She wants to turn so badly. Another trend like this and I think its up the coast

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Lol! How's temps ? BL and 850s?

difference between 00z, 18z and 12z...

 

00z:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

 

Looking at the soundings, this image looks fairly accurate to me.  On the soundings, I'm seeing GSP as pretty much all rain.  CLT is mostly rain.  RDU looks like rain/snow mix.  GSO pretty much all snow....that's GFS verbatim....don't know about recent sfc biases there with the model.

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Looking at the soundings, this image looks fairly accurate to me. On the soundings, I'm seeing GSP as pretty much all rain. CLT is mostly rain. RDU looks like rain/snow mix. GSO pretty much all snow....that's GFS verbatim....don't know about recent sfc biases there with the model.

How can it be rain in upstate with 850s in the -2 to -5 range and 2m temps in 30s?

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Chris these images you are putting together to show the real difference.. (maybe its the colors, idk?).. are amazing.  Please keep it up.  I see that new frame wanting to tilt negative.. (GFS)

 

Tried to explain to the GF the other night with a computer chair what positive, neutral, and negative were and she saw better off the maps :P

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