FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm thinking 12z tomorrow. I want to say that, but we have to get there first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well, the precipitation field on the NAM for tomorrow's storm just expanded to the north considerably. Looking at almost 1 to 2 inches of rain now for Atlanta. Will it repeat for Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm thinking 12z tomorrow. as long as we have a decent shift north tonight it will keep hope alive. doesnt have to be a blockbuster run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yea, the number of members showing snow in the SREF plumes is up from 15 to 21 z. A baby step? I looked at a bunch of W NC stations and all has increases. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Interesting. I have heard in the past that the SREF often is an indicator of what the next NAM run is going to do. It beefed up mean QPF here from 0.02" to 0.07", haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yea, always wanna see a shift north, but as long as it at the least holds course we might be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting. I have heard in the past that the SREF often is an indicator of what the next NAM run is going to do. It beefed up mean QPF here from 0.02" to 0.07", haha. ill never forgive the sref plumes for showing 12"+ leading up to last years storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ill never forgive the sref plumes for showing 12"+ leading up to last years storm. LOL, I bet DC posters still don't forgive it for what it did to them on Snowquester (3/6/2013). 20" of snow to a slushy inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 My local forecast for Sunday has p/c and high of 50! Who cares if moisture gets here or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm thinking 12z tomorrow. Yeah, I doubt that we will see any huge changes either way with the 00z runs tonight. I think people think 00z runs are where changes happen, or that the 00z run has more data, or somehow that the run is "better" than any of the others and that's just a myth. Wave won't be on land until 12z tomorrow so I'm hopeful we will see the models nailing this storm by tomorrow afternoon. Short term models will be huge tomorrow evening as well since they'll be well in-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ill never forgive the sref plumes for showing 12"+ leading up to last years storm. Been down that road also! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting. I have heard in the past that the SREF often is an indicator of what the next NAM run is going to do. It beefed up mean QPF here from 0.02" to 0.07", haha. That's like a 300% increase But where I really don't trust them is with marginal temp events where other models are showing mix or rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 New NAM tries to develop (TRIES) negative tilt by hour 36. It's trying folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, I doubt that we will see any huge changes either way with the 00z runs tonight. I think people think 00z runs are where changes happen, or that the 00z run has more data, or somehow that the run is "better" than any of the others and that's just a myth. Wave won't be on land until 12z tomorrow so I'm hopeful we will see the models nailing this storm by tomorrow afternoon. Short term models will be huge tomorrow evening as well since they'll be well in-range. Even so you would think it's starting to get to the point where it can give a fairly good guess as to the overall setup. I think we're going to see some subtle differences on the NAM tonight. Already in @39 hours the PV is a tick west and you can see how that is allowing the moisture in TX to be a little further north with it's center...of course I doubt it has a huge effect down stream but I'll be this run ends up being further north than 18z had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 00z NAM is bringing in a new player with some northern energy raising a little head of our southern energy out to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Even so you would think it's starting to get to the point where it can give a fairly good guess as to the overall setup. I think we're going to see some subtle differences on the NAM tonight. Already in @39 hours the PV is a tick west and you can see how that is allowing the moisture in TX to be a little further north with it's center...of course I doubt it has a huge effect down stream but I'll be this run ends up being further north than 18z had it.Agreed. No doubt we will see some trends on the 00z suite, just not pure weenie runs if they are to occur it will be likely tomorrow is what I meant, overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Agreed. No doubt we will see some trends on the 00z suite, just not pure weenie runs if they are to occur it will be likely tomorrow is what I meant, overall. Yea sorry, I was agreeing with you..probably didn't make that clear just that I guess what I meant was that if you start seeing some shifts tonight...well that gives it a much better chance. I think that's what I meant anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 nam looks good out to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The NAM, which basically never generated a storm at 18z, now has a good storm going in the central Gulf at 00z. Not going to help us, probably, but a step. Of course, the clock is ticking, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 nam looks good out to 48 It's trying. I have it out to 54 and at least this time it has some moisture in the gulf. Looks like it's gonna head OTS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM has some very light precip in the foothills @63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM at 54 is slower with southern energy and more phasing with north! Also very close to neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 OTS and the show is over @66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 LOL, I bet DC posters still don't forgive it for what it did to them on Snowquester (3/6/2013). 20" of snow to a slushy inch! I won't forgive god for that bust. I've been around these forums for 10 years. Too many busts to remember. None of them ever got to me. Rolled off the shoulders like mercury. Then boxing day came along. It stung. I was pissed. But it was temporary and I moved on. I will never get over the march 2013 deal. Just talking about it makes me want to wander the streets and kick small animals. On topic...I hope you guys score a little something Sunday. Just an hour or 2 of flakes falling is good for the soul and it's looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Gotta like the trends the NAM is spitting out right now. MUCH MUCH more precip with the 00z than the 18z due to the low. and the low is 30-50 miles north. and southern vort is slower which makes us rly close to a phase. you can see more vort energy in the "connecting tail" between the two pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I won't forgive god for that bust. I've been around these forums for 10 years. Too many busts to remember. None of them ever got to me. Rolled off the shoulders like mercury. Then boxing day came along. It stung. I was pissed. But it was temporary and I moved on. I will never get over the march 2013 deal. Just talking about it makes me want to wander the streets and kick small animals. On topic...I hope you guys score a little something Sunday. Just an hour or 2 of flakes falling is good for the soul and it's looking good so far. Funny Bob, and it spawned this great article from Wes... https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/confessions-of-a-winter-weather-expert/2013/03/12/e089c346-8b1c-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I won't forgive god for that bust. I've been around these forums for 10 years. Too many busts to remember. None of them ever got to me. Rolled off the shoulders like mercury. Then boxing day came along. It stung. I was pissed. But it was temporary and I moved on. I will never get over the march 2013 deal. Just talking about it makes me want to wander the streets and kick small animals. On topic...I hope you guys score a little something Sunday. Just an hour or 2 of flakes falling is good for the soul and it's looking good so far. Yeah, that one must have been really rough. Fortunately, you guys had a rockin' 2013-2014 winter. I guess some of you all on the outskirts on DC at least got a few slushy inches, but the district itself nearly got skunked. The image of Cantore on green grass really stuck. IIRC, the Shenandoah Valley area really got hammered still, though. --- Anyways, here is the 00z RGEM at hr 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 low looks to be in the same spot at 45. just off the south tx coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Energy is a tad north and the PV is a tad west. Baby steps I guess. Out to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Maybe close to negative tilt at hr 42? The PV is a bit further north than 18z. I might be grasping at straws, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 just off se la coast @51, maybe a tad north than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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