burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z is faster with the energy hard to tell if it's further north out to 66. Light precip over NC should be light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z is faster with the energy hard to tell if it's further north out to 66. Light precip over NC should be light snow showers. barely north if any, little more precip in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z RGEM at the end of its run (hr 54): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yep should be light snow showers even in Central NC. Precip rate looked about 0.1 or so an hour. (of snow not liquid lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-PREFERRED "SUPPRESSED" MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY QUELLED ALL OF THE (UNNECESSARY) HYPE FROM PERFECT PROGGING OF GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE ALLEGED SNOWSTORM -OR LACK THEREOF- FOR CENTRAL NC. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY INDEED OCCUR IN CENTRAL NC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS A RESULT OF THE FANTASY SNOWSTORM THE GFS ONCE GENERATED...AND INSTEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ONE OF THREE THAT THE GFS HAD PREVIOUSLY USED TO PHASE A FULL-LATITUDE...NOR`EASTER-INDUCING TROUGH UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. ...they sure arent feeling it lol. its like pulling teeth to even get snow in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think Cold Rain did that Raleigh AFD if you look at the full write-up...talks about marginal temps and all...that's straight out of Cold Rain's basement right there Lol I may have submitted a suggestion or two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BIG DOG. WOOOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BIG DOG. WOOOOF. that's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BIG DOG. WOOOOF. At this point I would howl for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not sure rates are heavy enough to help cool surface temps down. So.. that's why the snowfall maps look sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 barely north if any, little more precip in nc. That little partial phase with the northern energy is key to any flakes falling. Shame with everything going on to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not sure rates are heavy enough to help cool surface temps down. So.. that's why the snowfall maps look sparse. TBH I think that map is pretty generous for MBY given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yes. Apparently a less than 1 out of 20 chance for my backyard. And yet, I continue to remain captivated by that small probability, which is still much greater than the probability of winning the grand prize in last night's Powerball drawing that had so much of the rest of the country captivated. I saved my money that I could have spent on the Powerball to bet on this event instead. ^^^^ It seems members of your team at GSP don't rule out the possibility of flakes up here in my area either. Nice! Oh there's a small chance right now for low end amounts of wintry precip outside the mtns...I was just referring to the => 1 inch probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Oh there's a small chance right now for low end amounts of wintry precip outside the mtns...I was just referring to the => 1 inch probs.I understand. And, I will continue to hope that small chance evolves into a greater chance, even though I realize that it's unlikely.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I understand. And, I will continue to hope that small chance evolves into a greater chance, even though I realize that it's unlikely. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk That's fine, you can hope for whatever you want! I was just going for the obvious joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I actually like the trends...The EURO has really pulled north and changed its structure a ton at H5...I would not be surprised if this pulls even further north later tonight. BIG model runs tonight.....If the euro train stops coming north, game over IMHO...if not...game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That's fine, you can hope for whatever you want! I was just going for the obvious joke.no jokes allowed here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 i like the trends as well a slow NW trend before the sampling... I think indicates models saying "OH CRAP" and maybe the sampling will jump them NW some more. We are sitting pretty guys This IS where we always say we want a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BOOM! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 gfs continues the trend of more precip into nc/sc/ga on weds night/thurs. cold enough for snow in nc...but limited precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BOOM! :lol: Sold. Where do I sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I notice WPC gives I-20 southward in GA a 1-5% chance of at least 1" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 BOOM! :lol: I expect to see a big splash of canary yellow over Wake County tomorrow! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If the SREF trends NW it won't be far off for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yea, the number of members showing snow in the SREF plumes is up from 15 to 21 z. A baby step? I looked at a bunch of W NC stations and all has increases. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 usually this is when the nw trend really kicks in. 00z runs tonight will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I fully believe that tonight's runs of the GFS and EURO as well as the other short range models will make or break us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I fully believe that tonight's runs of the GFS and EURO as well as the other short range models will make or break us. Are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No. If we're lucky enough that they look decent, then the next set will make or break us and so on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm thinking 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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