Jonathan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This thing keeps reeeeeling everyone in. Goonies never say die. We're all desperate, man. This time tomorrow is coffin time either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This thing keeps reeeeeling everyone in. So you think RDU is going to see snow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well EPS looks better...so there's that. Still not getting it down but it is showing more northern energy and the LP looks better than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Some improvement on Euro Ens mean, much like the Op. Heights across the Ohio Valley slightly higher (PV not pressing down quite as much). Mean has light precip across most of the area, farther north than previous. Don't think we see anymore shifts south...if anything, nudges north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 via TW...the last 3 runs of the euro. trends are evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is the NW trend everyone has been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Nice Doppler. Wave in E Texas is in the same spot, but PV in upper midwest has retreated slightly northwest....not a surprise, we've seen that a lot of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 FWIW, not much, WPC increasing the odds of =>1" snow 12z Sunday: 5-10% for Blairsville, GA to Murphy, NC. 5-10% for Beech Mountain to Marion, NC. 1-5% for Birmingham, AL to Statesville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like 38/50 Euro members have some kind of low. Some north and south.. The mean still has your flurry or two for a big chunk of NC and far northern GA. The ensemble mean takes the center across central florida it looks.. before getting picked up out to sea in the northern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sorry I was in a college class and couldn't expound upon rgem. This is the 12gfs big hitter from yesterday... Compare it to what the rgem just showed... Even though the main models like gfs and euro are not looking great our shorter range models are picking up on some intricacies of the vort that the main models may be missing. Watch this closely as normal short range models pick up on this stuff before the big models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This thing keeps reeeeeling everyone in.What's making you say it's feeling in Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Very small probabilities for greater than one inch of snowfall at this time, but it is greater than zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 45m45 minutes ago Chances of snow are near zero for Sunday. Just cold and windy. #cltwx #KeepPounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Very small probabilities for greater than one inch of snowfall at this time, but it is greater than zero. So you're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 The nam seemed to have a ton of energy with nothing to show for it at the surface. Can anyone point out what's wrong with the setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 From GSP BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE NEXT SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP RESPONSE REMAINS VERY MUTED. THE GOOD NEWS IS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD A CLEAR QPF CONSENSUS...AS THE PREVIOUSLY PRECIP-FREE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS NOW PAINT A STRIPE OF VERY... VERY LIGHT PRECIP (A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST) ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY WETTER GFS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS (ESP THE NAM) ARE ACTUALLY QUITE INTERESTING FOR THIS EVENT...WITH NEAR-SATURATED AIR EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL-GROWTH REGION...AND SOME (ALBEIT WEAK) UVV WITHIN THIS REGION. WHILE LOW STABILITY IN THIS LAYER COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME VERY LOCALIZED/MESOSCALE BANDING... STILL SEE NO REASON WHY QPF WON/T BE VERY LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF COLD AIR. BASED UPON THIS CONSENSUS...THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE DISTRIBUTION WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIER OF ZONES...A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX ALONG AND NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE PIEDMONT AND ACROSS THE MTNS. BUT TO REITERATE (AND THIS CAN/T BE STRESSED ENOUGH)...THE CHANCE OF EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS IS 20-30 PERCENT AT BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ill take it. Very small probabilities for greater than one inch of snowfall at this time, but it is greater than zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^ All the accumulating snows in my lifetime have started out as "nearly zero chance" or "a chance of a dusting is 20-30% at best" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Very small probabilities for greater than one inch of snowfall at this time, but it is greater than zero. lol please don't tell me I'm going to have to make another trip to bowling Green, ky like I did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So you're saying there's a chance. Yes. Apparently a less than 1 out of 20 chance for my backyard. And yet, I continue to remain captivated by that small probability, which is still much greater than the probability of winning the grand prize in last night's Powerball drawing that had so much of the rest of the country captivated. I saved my money that I could have spent on the Powerball to bet on this event instead. ^^^^ It seems members of your team at GSP don't rule out the possibility of flakes up here in my area either. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lol please don't tell me I'm going to have to make another trip to bowling Green, ky like I did last year. Not unless you have to pay taxes there you don't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 birmingham afd, phased solution still not off the table. "THERE ARE IMPORTANT CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TEXAS AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE OTHER IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THESE WAVES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE GULF LOW...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A PHASED SOLUTION...REFLECTED BY SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVING SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS THROWS A BIT OF A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST AND BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 RAH is taking their sweet time getting out the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 17 euro ensemble members calling for trace amounts Sunday. Again, it isn't much but it hasn't snowed here in nearly a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 birmingham afd, phased solution still not off the table. "THERE ARE IMPORTANT CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TEXAS AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE OTHER IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THESE WAVES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE GULF LOW...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A PHASED SOLUTION...REFLECTED BY SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVING SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS THROWS A BIT OF A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST AND BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND." Matt wrote that and was talking about it earlier. First time I've really seen him half-way enthused with the system. He tends to be conservative with Winter WX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 RAH is taking their sweet time getting out the AFD THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-PREFERRED "SUPPRESSED" MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY QUELLED ALL OF THE (UNNECESSARY) HYPE FROM PERFECT PROGGING OF GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE ALLEGED SNOWSTORM -OR LACK THEREOF- FOR CENTRAL NC. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY INDEED OCCUR IN CENTRAL NC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS A RESULT OF THE FANTASY SNOWSTORM THE GFS ONCE GENERATED...AND INSTEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ONE OF THREE THAT THE GFS HAD PREVIOUSLY USED TO PHASE A FULL-LATITUDE...NOR`EASTER-INDUCING TROUGH UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. ...they sure arent feeling it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z is bringing the juice with that energy. It's a shame it's so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hm, 18z GFS looking better with the energy vs 12z from what I see. Also there might even be getting some upstate flurries going this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think Cold Rain did that Raleigh AFD if you look at the full write-up...talks about marginal temps and all...that's straight out of Cold Rain's basement right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Spot of heavier precip into NC! Nothing astonishing but good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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