Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is what i was talking about earlier, both models were likely to be wrong..with the gfs overly amped/too far north while the euro too weak/too far south..yet only the gfs will be criticized and remembered for "busting" with absurd "euro is king" posts because flakes don't fly in someone's back yard. I hate to break it to some of you but just because your back yard does or doesn't get flakes, is completely irrelevant to which model was more accurate as a whole. The reality is this..if a track and precip shield similar to the 12z gfs pans out, the euro will have busted just as badly as the gfs did. the 12z run of the euro yesterday almost had it in the freaking northwest carribean at one point and despite the 0z run actually shifting north/trending toward the gfs, it still only managed to get the low to track between south florida and cuba with precip barely making it out of south florida. So to say the euro won anything is absolute nonsense. Both models ended up trending toward the other and meeting in the middle more or less...although an argument can be made the euro was even more off because it was so far south and crushed with the 12z run yesterday while the gfs only moved from northern to central florida. Yes, the GFS might end up being wrong in consistently showing snow. But the Euro was all over the place and had the system probably going way to south. I guess it might end up being "right" in that it didn't show snow here, but it was like throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is what i was talking about earlier, both models were likely to be wrong..with the gfs overly amped/too far north while the euro too weak/too far south..yet only the gfs will be criticized and remembered for "busting" with absurd "euro is king" posts because flakes don't fly in someone's back yard. I hate to break it to some of you but just because your back yard does or doesn't get flakes, is completely irrelevant to which model was more accurate as a whole. The reality is this..if a track and precip shield similar to the 12z gfs pans out, the euro will have busted just as badly as the gfs did. the 12z run of the euro yesterday almost had it in the freaking northwest carribean at one point and despite the 0z run actually shifting north/trending toward the gfs, it still only managed to get the low to track between south florida and cuba with precip barely making it out of south florida. So to say the euro won anything is absolute nonsense. Both models ended up trending toward the other and meeting in the middle more or less...although an argument can be made the euro was even more off because it was so far south and crushed with the 12z run yesterday while the gfs only moved from northern to central florida. Yup. I said yesterday, the final track will likely be the 0z Ukie....somewhere in the central gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WxSouth 2 mins · As always things in the South require the perfect setup and timing for significant Winter Weather and it appears I jumped the gun Yesterday. Here's the latest info. The southern stream probably will get squashed, meaning that it won't have the power to pull up much Gulf moisture Saturday night into Sunday. As always this has been a super tricky setup on timing, and it appears the northern stream will press down and keep that system well to the South. It's possible that a few flurries, snow showers will quickly (hit and miss type) scoot through the Deep South to North Carolina. It shouldn't be much, just a few passing flakes, or showers. It's not impossible though it pulls further north than shown, but doesn't look like a big deal. Colder air builds in Sunday afternoon and we turn very cold thereafter.Things continue to look active as we go through time , as far out as I can see, and with the climatological most active and coldest period still out there in February, if you're looking for a Winter Storm, I'd say the odds are still pretty good. There's plenty of moisture in this Nino, and now we're in a much cooler pattern, so it's a matter of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If there's almost no or very very weak surface LP on Sunday cross FL with very little precip at all in the southeast, then yes I'd say the Euro was right. If there is any type of decent surface LP from the FL panhandle to fairly close to the SE coast, then the GFS would be right. Clearly the "event" has not happened as of yet. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 cmc did tick north a bit and is stronger with the lp, still not good enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 CMC looks like the UKMET. Not enough: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 My last and final post on here, enjoyed the discussions! The CMC trended quite a bit stronger with the surface low and I expect the Euro to trend further north also. Much more fun is to come throughout January and February. ] Previous run Current CMC run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Comments are awfully similar to the Christmas snow of 2010. One model was showing a phase and a storm while the other wasn't and then the model showing it lost the phase too...48 hours out and boom, models go back to phase solution. A phase is still very possible, chill out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I remember that. Many highs during a week prior, we nearly face-planted a few days prior (I think I remember someone even starting a 'what needs to happen for our Christmas storm to come back' thread on like the 23rd), and then again around Christmas eve the phase solution came back around and the rest is history. Granted we still had much stronger signals with that storm, than this one. I'll write this one off tomorrow if we don't come up with better trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Still happy with the light snow that will likely show up across north Georgia on Sunday. I get that NC is out and it won't be major but there are some of us still in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You guys bail too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm out!What is that like 2 or 3 times now for you? If you start the thread, you got to be in it for the long haul.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The soundings dont look too bad. I dont expect significant snow on Sunday but I wouldnt be surprised to see snow showers/flurries and thats more than I've seen since last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Bow down to the King! Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Will the last one out hit the lights, please? LithiaWx is that gonna be you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Meh, looks like a very real possibility of snow showers and maybe light accumulations based on a lot of the modeling still. I'm in, still. Big storm is out, but a light event still seems on the table. I am not saying it is likely, but it's still possible and most of the modeling has shifted towards it, even the models that were previously bone dry like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It is only now coming into range on the SREF...but the ptype-probs and snow amounts are at least showing a chance of something for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Could not agree more. Other than one euro snow map this system never was going to break the bank. Would love anything it has to offer. The soundings dont look too bad. I dont expect significant snow on Sunday but I wouldnt be surprised to see snow showers/flurries and thats more than I've seen since last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If there's almost no or very very weak surface LP on Sunday cross FL with very little precip at all in the southeast, then yes I'd say the Euro was right. If there is any type of decent surface LP from the FL panhandle to fairly close to the SE coast, then the GFS would be right. Clearly the "event" has not happened as of yet. TW . Assuming the low goes through central florida, that is roughly 500 miles further north than the 12z euro yesterday and 300 miles from last nights 0z run. The gfs, at it's most northern solution since 18z yesterday would be about 250 miles too far north, using the same track. Precip wise, using the more northern 0z euro run last night, the most significant precipitation on the euro also averaged about twice as much distance vs what the average northern extent is on average of the latest run of the other models. So the only area where the euro performed better on this system is with the depth of the surface low where the gfs has been consistently more deep. Otherwise, and again assuming nothing much else changes between now and then, as it stands now the euro, by far, as has been worse in 2 out of those 3 categories. Sorry but this idea the euro did better is simply wrong. And funny enough the 12z euro is coming in further north than last nights 0z run. It can still change of course but as it stands now the gfs will have done better by any reasonable assessment. Bow down to the King! Next.... good grief yeah..it might only be off by 300 or 400 miles....way to go euro! edit...500 miles at least from the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 What is that like 2 or 3 times now for you? If you start the thread, you got to be in it for the long haul.. You must have me and my banjo playing snowman confused with someone else. I don't bail easily, and am a glass half full person. My eyes hurt from comparing each of the model runs looking for the positives this morning. I haven't found many so far today except for the slight westward movement of the PV. I hope that it turns around, but at this point I'm not really expecting it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well the Euro is improved...flurries flying for many areas...all northern stream precip...southern wave is left to rot in the gulf with sfc low crossing the Everglades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So Euro has light snow for NC on Sunday due to northern energy. It actually had the southern energy interacting with it early on but doesn't phase. This was an interesting run. I'm not giving up yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You must have me and my banjo playing snowman confused with someone else. I don't bail easily, and am a glass half full person. My eyes hurt from comparing each of the model runs looking for the positives this morning. I haven't found many so far today except for the slight westward movement of the PV. I hope that it turns around, but at this point I'm not really expecting it to. My bad, with all the wolpfack screen names sometimes it gets confusing! So many people are bailing 3.5 days out when snow is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z Canadian, GFS, and Euro show token flakes Sunday. That's all I was expecting to begin with. Don't know what's with all the goodbyes from folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So Euro has light snow for NC on Sunday due to northern energy. It actually had the southern energy interacting with it early on but doesn't phase. This was an interesting run. I'm not giving up yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk As long as you're on board, I'm riding shotgun. Shortwave sampling can't be any more crucial than it is for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So Euro has light snow for NC on Sunday due to northern energy. It actually had the southern energy interacting with it early on but doesn't phase. This was an interesting run. I'm not giving up yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk like rah's afd said, sampling the sw late tonight will be key. if 6z tomorrow shows the suppressed system, then people can cliff jump all they want...but until then all options are on the table. i know im optimistic but i have seen storms trend nw many, many times within 72hrs, especially when the models show a track thru central/southern florida while the shortwave in question is still over the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z Canadian, GFS, and Euro show token flakes Sunday. That's all I was expecting to begin with. Don't know what's with all the goodbyes from folks. I think expectations are just high this winter with the pattern and indicies we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well the Euro is improved...flurries flying for many areas...all northern stream precip...southern wave is left to rot in the gulf with sfc low crossing the Everglades I think that's the thing to watch now. The Euro and GGEM have caved towards what the GFS has been showing with regards to that. Looks very real and on the table and could trend wetter (or drier). Not a big event, but accumulations are possible depending on what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 As long as you're on board, I'm riding shotgun. Shortwave sampling can't be any more crucial than it is for this storm.If it didn't show any interaction I would probably be very close to giving up but to not even be sampled there is still a lot of room here for either direction. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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