WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I noticed some changes over TX on the 0z ECMWF at 72hrs when compared to its previous 12z run. The 0z has a more pronounced vortmax coming in on the backside of the main parcel, and while it still kind of cuts over top of the shortwave as t is stepped, there are indications of some constructive interference when compared to the previous run. The chances of a stronger system tracking closer to the SE coast is greater in my opinion than a flat wave through Central FL. This may not mean a lot with respect to sensible weather for most, but we still have about 36hrs for this to trend in to an event, and based on what I saw on the wunderground 0z Euro 500map, it is not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 No throwing in the towel here. Any flakes is a win in my book. However here are some optimistic observations (using anecdotal data): 1) I agree with Burger about the NW trend. If we see it, it should start by 12z Friday. We have seen this over and over and over with storms. The only time I don't recall a NW trend is when a system gets sheared out and never forms. I believe if there is a good low pressure, it will trend NW and probably look similar to the UKMET. Look at the trough orientation. It indicates at least a 45 degree NE trajectory. 2) A wild card will be any upper air dynamics that could possibly provide more lift. Our low pressure would have to be in the vicinity and not Cuba though. Several runs have featured a small 850 low that has enhanced the precip on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not good trends for the GFS/GEFS overnight, trending more south and towards the Euro. But...the Euro trended more north towards the GEFS. Also, the Euro/EPS are still not in complete agreement (Euro Op hangs s/w more south than the EPS)...still, not what you want to see for the GFS. Really, if the GFS goes a little south and is less amped, and the Euro comes north and they meet in the middle it would still be at least a little something. Have to start somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the NAM might be better this run. well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the NAM might be better this run. well see ??? I'm at hour 6. What are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 anyone looking to throw in the towel, read RAH afd. "THE MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIFFER UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND IS SAMPLED BETTER...LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND TYPE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA." models will continue to waver until tomorrow's 12z runs. They are completely 100% correct. I don't know why anyone has been getting overly excited or overly depressed about this thing, because until it hits land we don't know much. Insufficient reliable data input into the models = bad/missing data into a set of numerical equations = poor/incorrect result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 They are completely 100% correct. I don't know why anyone has been getting overly excited or overly depressed about this thing, because until it hits land we don't know much. Insufficient reliable data input into the models = bad/missing data into a set of numerical equations = poor/incorrect result. there is a reason we almost always see a nw trend 36-48hrs out, because the models arent able to accurately sample these systems until they come ashore. thing is over the pacific now, which is why every run wavers...they are simply doing their best with limited info. how many times have we seen a system with a perfect track and perfect temps 72 hrs out trend nw and screw us with waa? i can remember several times. id much rather the low be progged to go through central fl at this point than a bomb on the coast, because if it were a 12z gfs solution we would all be sweating bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 They are completely 100% correct. I don't know why anyone has been getting overly excited or overly depressed about this thing, because until it hits land we don't know much. Insufficient reliable data input into the models = bad/missing data into a set of numerical equations = poor/incorrect result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Again, I say, it's a beautiful thing out there in the sea, but it is a beautiful thing which as Raleigh correctly pointed out has been insufficiently sampled, and more will be known when it hits land. So there is little point in indulging in mania or depression just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Last post for the day but here are my thoughts. I've been watching the models for awhile and have seen the tendencies they have as we approach winter storms. More often than not as we are 96-120 hours out we typically see a NW trend with systems like this and people get nervous about it going too far inland. Then 72-96 hours the models will shift east and south some and everyone starts panicking that it will go out to sea and miss us. As the energy comes onshore and we are less than 60 hours out we see models begin picking up on the NW trend once again and they go back to their original solution they had in the 96-120 range. I expect today we will see some jumps that aren't as favorable for us and then tomorrow once it comes onshore it will go NW again and quickly. I've seen it happen too many times to count and this time is following that pattern perfectly again. Watch the NAM inside 60 hours it will pick up on these things before other models, and through 60 hours it has been trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I do think the euro wavered on where it was Cuba or mid GOM...its been showing it for the last few days. I figured the GFS was wrong. I think you will continue to see the GFS get further surpressed for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the NAM might be better this run. well see I am just curious as to how you are getting the NAM 30 minutes before everyone else? I have SV and mine is only out to hour 36. Not sure you can even tell too much from that and I am 30 minutes behind you. Weatherbell is also at hr 36. Looks like the 12z GFS is looking better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Agreed, how many times are we progged for a foot of snow 84 hours out and the thing ends up in the ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I am just curious as to how you are getting the NAM 30 minutes before everyone else? I have SV and mine is only out to hour 36. Not sure you can even tell too much from that and I am 30 minutes behind you. Weatherbell is also at hr 36. Looks like the 12z GFS is looking better.. 12z gfs wont run for another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z gfs wont run for another hour.Meant GEFS, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 NO GO on the NAM. The setup doesn't look terrible, but no low really forms and there's very little moisture as a result. YUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yep, NAM gave us the old 7-10 split with moisture then it went out OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Guess we'll have to suffer through the rain tomorrow only to not have any precip Sunday. Maybe we can have some more shots next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Im sorry folks...this one looks like its dead in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Last post for the day but here are my thoughts. I've been watching the models for awhile and have seen the tendencies they have as we approach winter storms. More often than not as we are 96-120 hours out we typically see a NW trend with systems like this and people get nervous about it going too far inland. Then 72-96 hours the models will shift east and south some and everyone starts panicking that it will go out to sea and miss us. As the energy comes onshore and we are less than 60 hours out we see models begin picking up on the NW trend once again and they go back to their original solution they had in the 96-120 range. I expect today we will see some jumps that aren't as favorable for us and then tomorrow once it comes onshore it will go NW again and quickly. I've seen it happen too many times to count and this time is following that pattern perfectly again. Watch the NAM inside 60 hours it will pick up on these things before other models, and through 60 hours it has been trending stronger. Why let this be your last post of the day? Lots of interesting things potentially happening today as we get new model run after new model run. I appreciate reading your analysis and thoughtful discussion. Tracking potential storms is such a waiting game. We never know for certain how things are going to turn out until we see the weather outside our front doors. This is what keeps us all coming back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Thread close! Euro king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Im sorry folks...this one looks like its dead in the water. you are really throwing in the towel because of what the nam shows at 72hr+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Safe money all along was and is with the Euro. Having said that, why would you throw in the towel based on the NAM at more than 60 hours out? As for the GFS, it looks like the precip on Sunday for NC is more associated with an upper level disturbance than anything else. I think the Euro may be similar. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Again, I say, it's a beautiful thing out there in the sea, but it is a beautiful thing which as Raleigh correctly pointed out has been insufficiently sampled, and more will be known when it hits land. So there is little point in indulging in mania or depression just yet. Pretty much every run of the GFS has shown some snow for us. Don't get discouraged, probably over for NC but us in GA have a good shot at some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 NAM love at its best. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Guess we'll have to suffer through the rain tomorrow only to not have any precip Sunday. Maybe we can have some more shots next week. We have a chance for rain late next week as a LP plows through the cold high. There's plenty of time for that to change though but that's what the models are showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Guess we'll have to suffer through the rain tomorrow only to not have any precip Sunday. Maybe we can have some more shots next week. Stupid Fishel. It's all his fault for not predicting snow. What a dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Im sorry folks...this one looks like its dead in the water. Go figure. We get the cold and its dry. We get the moisture and it warms up for rain, frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Stupid Fishel. It's all his fault for not predicting snow. What a dummy. Nope, that wasn't my point. Just think it is silly saying there is no chance of snow that far out when a model is showing a chance just as much as saying it is definitely going to snow that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Thread close! Euro kingnot really, the euro solution will probably end up farther away from reality than the gfs.6z gfs para was less amped. Still some light snow for north ga and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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