NWNC2015 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WPC issues 10% chance for 0.25 liquid equiv of snow/sleet from roughly Richmond VA to Pinehurst NC and points east. Includes Durham, Raleigh, Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, and stops near Greenville NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 People forget that just a few days ago the long range Euro showed this bomb off our coast, for the 17-18th, remarkably similar to the 12z GFS solution earlier today. The energy needs to get captured more-so than the 00z Euro just said for that solution, correct? I mean, maybe the energy is holding back a tad too long with the Euro bias. I don't know if the bias is still there, I hear it's the resolution but never looked deep into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 looking like it wont quite get done, might be an improvement still. big improvement.. definitely shows a chance at something better at h5 this go around... the model watching continues. Euro solution would be better for us, correct? Other than the placement of the Low currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The energy needs to get captured more-so than the 00z Euro just said for that solution, correct? I mean, maybe the energy is holding back a tad too long with the Euro bias. I don't know if the bias is still there, I hear it's the resolution but never looked deep into it. The main differences I see that are still holding the Euro back is it drops the PV into the Great Lakes much quicker than the GFS and UK which significantly suppresses the energy. It also was very positive tilt in previous runs, however the 00z had it neutral and phased in some northern stream energy for the first time in recent days. This is why you saw it move further north and stronger. No other model outside the Euro/CMC drop the PV as fast which is the main difference now keeping it from going up the coast. I expect that to change soon as the Euro made a nice jump NW with that energy in the first part of its run, it's catching on, albeit slowly. By 00z tomorrow night we should have a good track consensus. Imo this will be a blend of the 12z GFS and UK tracks/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro solution would be better for us, correct? Other than the placement of the Low currently. It's gonna be hard to get Wintry weather out of the potential setup around Columbia as a whole. 40F and higher numbers aren't going to dewpoint down or anything like that. The surface freezing line really won't be close enough like to our far Northern zones and NC. Miracles can happen, but this is very very far (if there is even precipitation) from being an optimal Winter weather setup for us. Here is the 00z GFS Bufkit output for the KCAE area (44.3F & light rain): Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160117/1500Z 87 02010KT 44.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100 160117/1800Z 90 36014KT 47.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0| 0 160117/2100Z 93 35009KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0| 0 160118/0000Z 96 36003KT 44.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Here are the temps through the atmosphere based on 00z GFS: (you can see 15-18th too warm to not melt anything) NWS KCAE is sticking to their previous discussion in saying: THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP TYPE OTHER THAN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS BUFKIT TIME SECTION FOR CLT SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z eps supports the suppressed op. It's getting ugly Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 6Z GFS really supressed with a weak disorganized low tracking across central FL and into the Atlantic and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not good trends for the GFS/GEFS overnight, trending more south and towards the Euro. But...the Euro trended more north towards the GEFS. Also, the Euro/EPS are still not in complete agreement (Euro Op hangs s/w more south than the EPS)...still, not what you want to see for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 6Z GFS really supressed with a weak disorganized low tracking across central FL and into the Atlantic and out to sea. Oddly enough NC still gets statewide accumulations of T-1.5" from that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Oddly enough NC still gets statewide accumulations of T-1.5" from that system. Looks like > .1 over northern and western NC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=precip_p24&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=363 The 6z NAM has its over amped look and showing the storm closer to the coast at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gfs para came back west a touch from previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Oddly enough NC still gets statewide accumulations of T-1.5" from that system. Sure does. Gladly take it Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 6z GEFS = FAIL OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is it time to shut this one down? Looks like the EURO gets the coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The precip over central NC is probably not related to the offshore low, but the result of some other mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is it time to shut this one down? Looks like the EURO gets the coup! Not yet. The euro has been trending towards the GFS, and of course the GFS has been trending towards the euro. There is still some time for this to turn around (some) and maybe provide a light event for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is it time to shut this one down? Looks like the EURO gets the coup! No! The energy hasn't even been sampled yet! Can't shut it down til tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think we are all grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Slow up the polar vortex and its new ballgame. But I think it's slipping away. It's not the low but the crushing cold push. Pray for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'll take my light snow event. Atlanta is going to see something from this one. It was never going to be a storm, just an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It must be extremely difficult to be a broadcast meteorologist. B/c you know their inner weenie wants snow soooo bad but they have to be grounded and stick to their guns... like Brad and Greg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not over till 0:00 on the clock. However, I assume last night runs will temper thoughts. Gladly take whatever is coming Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lol at folks saying Euro got the coup... It only moved the LP oh 400 miles or so. CMC even more laughable. While I'm not overly excited about snow for you guys I do think we're starting to see models honing in now. However how many times have we seen this? It focuses in on what to do with the energy and then the NW trends begin. Don't sleep on this one yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lol at folks saying Euro got the coup... It only moved the LP oh 400 miles or so. CMC even more laughable. While I'm not overly excited about snow for you guys indo think we're starting to see models honing in. However how many times have we seen this? It focuses in on what to do with the energy and then the NW trends begin. Don't sleep on this one yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk agree. sw wont get over the conus until late tonight, this thing can and will change as we roll into the weekend. even the 06z gfs gives a good bit of nc a trace. lets see what the 12z and 00z runs do today before jumping off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I agree burger not time to stick a fork in this one yet-at least not for NC and SE Virginia, amped up storm is out but a E to NE storm track that grazes these areas is still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 What about the upstate of sc should we cut the cord on anything Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lol at folks saying Euro got the coup... It only moved the LP oh 400 miles or so. CMC even more laughable. While I'm not overly excited about snow for you guys I do think we're starting to see models honing in now. However how many times have we seen this? It focuses in on what to do with the energy and then the NW trends begin. Don't sleep on this one yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Yeah not getting that at all. I don't think we "Know" any more than we did after yesterdays runs. We are not going to get hammered with a huge snowfall but this thing isn't settled quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 anyone looking to throw in the towel, read RAH afd. "THE MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIFFER UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND IS SAMPLED BETTER...LATERTONIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...ESPECIALLYWITH REGARD TO THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND TYPE OF PRECIP OVER THEAREA." models will continue to waver until tomorrow's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 What about the upstate of sc should we cut the cord on anything There was really no chance to start with for the upstate. The upstate mountains could see some flakes mixed in the rain but the mountains will block most of the cold air. Western NC will see snow showers while northern mountains will see more amounts of snow. Such as boon NC ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 agree. sw wont get over the conus until late tonight, this thing can and will change as we roll into the weekend. even the 06z gfs gives a good bit of nc a trace. lets see what the 12z and 00z runs do today before jumping off the cliff.Honestly may have to wait until 12z tomorrow for that energy to be sampled correctly.Edit: just saw your new post (on my cell)...yeah I agree with RAH the new OBS may not even be ingested into the 12z runs really, it may be 18z or 00z before we really get a good idea. I mentioned this yesterday maybe to you about 12z tomorrow? Don't recall, but sampling the s/w is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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