Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS not wavering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Even with the miss it looks like ATL could eek some snow showers. Looked like some good snow showers across much of NC and the upper half of SC just north of CAE Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Major feedback issues Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Didn't quite turn the corner in the end. GFS has ticked east in its last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Another run with some snow for The ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS keeps trying...I don't understand why it keeps (what looks like) having some convective feedback issues...big qpf amounts only near sfc center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Rocky Mount, NC is the place to be for this one. It usually is. Snow magnet of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS keeps trying...I don't understand why it keeps (what looks like) having some convective feedback issues...big qpf amounts only near sfc center. You almost always see a precip shield more expansive than what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You almost always see a precip shield more expansive than what the models show. It's a fairly fast mover, models often have too much qpf with fast moving systems and then inside 72 hours they often begin cutting back. We see this often in New York when a fast moving coastal comes up the coast with no blocking the qpf almost always drops off the last 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Cmc took a big jump towards the GFS . After having NOTHING the last two days it tried really hard this run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The 00z GGEM is better than past runs, but still crushes it. Looks like some snow showers for some, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lanie Pope just popped out 1.1" across a good chunk of central NC on her in house model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It kind of sucks living just SE of RIC in Va. We tend to get left out of the discussion. Not really considered the SE nor the MA. Kind of just stuck out in some misfit land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It kind of sucks living just SE of RIC in Va. We tend to get left out of the discussion. Not really considered the SE nor the MA. Kind of just stuck out in some misfit land. Who is this?....and where are you talking about again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wright-Weather.com @MikeWDross 26s26 seconds ago Until NCEP gets the GFS running 4D-EnsVar it will remain a 3rd rate Global model. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 2m2 minutes ago Not buying GFS for Sunday due mainly to the set-up. Tue-Wed looks more intriguing. #cltwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It kind of sucks living just SE of RIC in Va. We tend to get left out of the discussion. Not really considered the SE nor the MA. Kind of just stuck out in some misfit land. I understand.... Right now though, you look better than us! If you are cold enough that is. This seems like a system where a NW trend is possible so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z UKMET: That's a big jump between hours but looks...awesome decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That's a big jump between hours but looks...awesome? Does slide OTS but certainly looks close enough for action. I'll take a passing few flakes at this point. Brrrr....next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 seems ukmet probably just took a step to the Euro. might be what actually happens... ukmet might score on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I mean...it doesn't make the turn, but it doesn't slide into FL either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That's a big jump between hours but looks...awesome decent? Hard to tell. The LP position at hr 96 basically mirrors the 18z GFS at hr 102, so there's that. The track is doable, though we have no idea what kind of precip field is involved, so it's hard to say whether it's good or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 UKMet looks similar to GFS to me...so an improvement there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GEFS moved a bit east like the OP...usually how it works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The ukmet looks just like it did at 12z. It's precip only goes out to 72 hrs. It's a great model skill wise but you don't get all the bells and whistles like the globals unfortunately. Gonna be a fun week next week. Got a shot sun,we'd and next weekend. Probably get hit all 3 times and walk away with 1 to 2 inches total lol. Just enough to avoid the shutout. Seriously atleast we get to play the game and that's a win in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 significant shift South on para gfs. Gfs prob starting to come around, we'll see Euro soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro trending towards GFS through hour 60. Energy is faster in southern stream, closer to neutral and PV further NW. All hail King GFS? Lol. Hour 72 the Euro has the energy neutral tilt and some northern energy phasing in. It has the PV further NW closer to the GFS and the southern energy a tad faster. This tells me the GFS solution will be closer to reality and with CMC/Euro trending towards the GFS we should have a good consensus by this time tomorrow. Here is a comparison between the current run and previous run. Nice jump north. 12z run 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 looking like it wont quite get done, might be an improvement still. big improvement.. definitely shows a chance at something better at h5 this go around... the model watching continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Baby step for Euro. Euro and CMC have similar look with gulf low passing thru FL, and just passing flurries from weak northern stream energy. GFS and UKMet are turning the corner with the gulf low moving out off the GA coast. WPC update tonight likes a weak low closer to the coast...more like GFS and UKMet, though closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WPC Model Discussion...says Euro is a bit of an outlier A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM EMERGES ON THE MAP AS IT CROSSES THE OREGONCOAST BY 15/0000Z. DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF EVOLUTION...THE 12ZCMC IS SLOWER COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENTCARRIES THIS SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TX BYSATURDAY MORNING. MOST NOTABLY...THE 12Z ECMWF IS WELL OFF TO THESOUTHWEST WHICH IS EVEN AWAY FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. OTHER MODELSDO SHOW A RATHER PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE LONE STARSTATE WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MXON SATURDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREEING WITHSUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST OUTLIER IS THE 12ZECMWF WHICH GENERALLY IS MORE DIFFUSE WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMWHILE ALLOWING AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TO HANG BACK OVER THECENTRAL GULF OF MX EARLY SUNDAY. WILL PLAY THIS FEATURE MORECONSERVATIVELY GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTIES. AFTER COORDINATION WITHWPC MEDIUM RANGE...THE PREFERENCE WILL BE THE 18Z GEFS MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 People forget that just a few days ago the long range Euro showed this bomb off our coast, for the 17-18th, remarkably similar to the 12z GFS solution earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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