1/17/16 Winter Weather Threat

[nomanslandva]

Something interesting that I have noticed about Friday's rainer.  I week ago there were many solutions that had a gulf low either being a coastal, inland runner, or apps runner and we were worried about the GL low cutting off the cold air supply.  A few days later, the gulf low was a cutter and then it was a double barrel low where the western gulf low became the GL low.  Now, 2 days out, the the western low never seems to have had an origin in the gulf and we are back to a strong coastal with a lakes low jamming the cold air.  My point is, ALL the models are all over the place so anything might happen...  

Anyway, this is the first time I have bothered to look at the NAM or SREF for any snow chances this season so at least there is that progress

[SN_Lover]

Oh NAM you lure be in again! Looks like more phasing this run? 

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Big Frosty just wondering what J B is saying about this storm?

Much to do about nothing (I Think)? Maybe about 15 days or so before we have a real shot at a winter storm. If I recall right, I watched video this morning but can't hardly remember. lol. (Old Age) But I know he wasn't expecting much if anything down here..... I really hate to even say what he's said anymore, i'm tired of people mouthing about how bad he is, and he don't care about the SE blah blah blah!!! If he honks on any storm for the SE I send you a PM..............  Of course he's like any Met, He's not always right. And he will admit it when he bust!!! I say 90% of both boards I'm a member of people HATE HIM? Mention his name and you'll have 2 pages of bashing in an hour. lol   Only problem with this Sunday storm is three letters GFS. There may be some light snow in Alabama, Georgia, SC and Eastern NC..... Hope the GFS is right and we have a winter storm on our hands, But I am not the least bit excited about our chances here in the N.foothills.... Unless there's more model support that jumps on board tonight or tomorrow? 

 

From JB tonight about the Euro leaving back:

 

Now assuming the usual correction is still taking place, the message behind the Euro is that there are major troughs on the east coast every 5 days

In addition as I pointed out this morning, a big difference now with the pressure in Canada before the Saturday/Sunday system and what is lurking later as high pressure builds.

A not boring warning is in effect.. This may be replaced by an excitement watch if I see that Euro kick that southern feature out....  I watched him on a show last might, He still thinks Atlanta through the SE and up Carolina's will see several snows before spring. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Much to do about nothing (I Think)? Maybe about 15 days or so before we have a real shot at a winter storm. If I recall right, I watched video this morning but can't hardly remember. lol. (Old Age) But I know he wasn't expecting much if anything down here..... I really hate to even say what he's said anymore, i'm tired of people mouthing about how bad he is, and he don't care about the SE blah blah blah!!! If he honks on any storm for the SE I send you a PM..............  Of course he's like any Met, He's not always right. And he will admit it when he bust!!! I say 90% of both boards I'm a member of people HATE HIM? Mention his name and you'll have 2 pages of bashing in an hour. lol   Only problem with this Sunday storm is three letters GFS. There may be some light snow in Alabama, Georgia, SC and Eastern NC..... Hope the GFS is right and we have a winter storm on our hands, But I am not the least bit excited about our chances here in the N.foothills.... Unless there's more model support that jumps on board tonight or tomorrow?

I personally put a lot of trust in his ability.Some like him some don't and that's their right.

Much to do about nothing (I Think)? Maybe about 15 days or so before we have a real shot at a winter storm. If I recall right, I watched video this morning but can't hardly remember. lol. (Old Age) But I know he wasn't expecting much if anything down here..... I really hate to even say what he's said anymore, i'm tired of people mouthing about how bad he is, and he don't care about the SE blah blah blah!!! If he honks on any storm for the SE I send you a PM..............  Of course he's like any Met, He's not always right. And he will admit it when he bust!!! I say 90% of both boards I'm a member of people HATE HIM? Mention his name and you'll have 2 pages of bashing in an hour. lol   Only problem with this Sunday storm is three letters GFS. There may be some light snow in Alabama, Georgia, SC and Eastern NC..... Hope the GFS is right and we have a winter storm on our hands, But I am not the least bit excited about our chances here in the N.foothills.... Unless there's more model support that jumps on board tonight or tomorrow?

[No snow for you]

Heard the RPM is on board. As well as the good ole NAVGEM.

[tarheelwx]

If you're betting against the Euro on this storm at this range, you're very young, suffer memory loss, or just just refuse to reflect on history. How many times in the past 10 years have we had a similar situation and the gfs ends up being right? To bet against the euro in this situation is ludicrous. Maybe this will be the once in a blue moon that the GFS is victorious over the Euro. TW

[jburns]

That sounded better in my head.

Probably because of the echo.

[franklin NCwx]

If you're betting against the Euro on this storm at this range, you're very young, suffer memory loss, or just just refuse to reflect on history. How many times in the past 10 years have we had a similar situation and the gfs ends up being right? To bet against the euro in this situation is ludicrous. Maybe this will be the once in a blue moon that the GFS is victorious over the Euro. TW

the gfs and other models have beat the euro several times before when the euro had a raging snowstorm. To be honest the euro is probably just as off on this as the gfs.

[SN_Lover]

Never mind, even less phasing than the 18z. That's 2 runs in a row. Lets see what the 0z GFS does. 

[franklin NCwx]

Never mind, even less phasing than the 18z. That's 2 runs in a row. Lets see what the 0z GFS does.

how far out on the run are you?

[franklin NCwx]

Phasing at hour 72 trough is neutral west of the Mississippi.

Vortex is pressing down too much not gonna have enough room to amplify.

[Jonathan]

If you're betting against the Euro on this storm at this range, you're very young, suffer memory loss, or just just refuse to reflect on history. How many times in the past 10 years have we had a similar situation and the gfs ends up being right? To bet against the euro in this situation is ludicrous. Maybe this will be the once in a blue moon that the GFS is victorious over the Euro. TW

 

I'm still waiting on someone to specifically mention an event where the EURO and GFS were totally different and the EURO won other than Hurricane Joaquin.

 

Still waiting......

 

Completely discounting a model who's been steadfast for 24 hours while worshipping one that's been different every run for 24 hours is ludicrous in my book, regardless of what model it is.

[tarheelwx]

the gfs and other models have beat the euro several times before when the euro had a raging snowstorm. To be honest the euro is probably just as off on this as the gfs.

But I think the Euro has been pretty consistent as it has gotten inside it's wheelhouse. TW

[franklin NCwx]

But I think the Euro has been pretty consistent as it has gotten inside it's wheelhouse. TW

consistent that it does not show a storm yes. But it's had some big run to run changes.

I think lookouts post was spot on.

[NWNC2015]

I'm still waiting on someone to specifically mention an event where the EURO and GFS were totally different and the EURO won other than Hurricane Joaquin.

 

Still waiting......

 

Completely discounting a model who's been steadfast for 24 hours while worshipping one that's been different every run for 24 hours is ludicrous in my book, regardless of what model it is.

 

Sandy

[tarheelwx]

I'm still waiting on someone to specifically mention an event where the EURO and GFS were totally different and the EURO won other than Hurricane Joaquin.

Still waiting......

NE Blizzard last year (can't remember the exact date). I also remember a few years ago when the Euro was cutting the low into the block and everyone (especially DT) was saying it was impossible and it would change. I don't keep records of missed storms, but I've been burned too many times following the GFS dream and hoping the Euro is wrong to know the odds are against me. Hope I'm wrong and everyone gets buried. TW

[BIG FROSTY]

Best way to settle it is, everybody post how much snow is in there back yard come Sunday! No model is right all the time, but they do have verification scores that's been posted many times on here. I've seen a lot of models  be consistent over the years, and sometimes it's consistently wrong!!! I rooting for a GFS coup. I want snow. 

[Hvward]

NE Blizzard last year (can't remember the exact date). I also remember a few years ago when the Euro was cutting the low into the block and everyone (especially DT) was saying it was impossible and it would change. I don't keep records of missed storms, but I've been burned too many times following the GFS dream and hoping the Euro is wrong to know the odds are against me. Hope I'm wrong and everyone gets buried. TW

 

Euro was the model that was wrong on the NE Blizzard..

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-meteorologists-botched-the-blizzard-of-2015/

[franklin NCwx]

NE Blizzard last year (can't remember the exact date). I also remember a few years ago when the Euro was cutting the low into the block and everyone (especially DT) was saying it was impossible and it would change. I don't keep records of missed storms, but I've been burned too many times following the GFS dream and hoping the Euro is wrong to know the odds are against me. Hope I'm wrong and everyone gets buried. TW

I remember DT making a post last year saying that he was no longer in love with the euro after it had got taken to the woodshed by the gfs.

[SnowGoose69]

I remember DT making a post last year saying that he was no longer in love with the euro after it had got taken to the woodshed by the gfs.

The GFS didn't do as well on that storm as many think. It did well in a small area near NYC but it was horrible for eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, and all of New England. It sort of backed it's way into a good forecast because of it's SE bias

[franklin NCwx]

The GFS didn't do as well on that storm as many think. It did well in a small area near NYC but it was horrible for eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, and all of New England. It sort of backed it's way into a good forecast because of it's SE bias

I don't think it was that storm it was a different one that the euro and it's ensembles showed a big snowstorm for the mid Atlantic and the gfs was a miss ots. For a couple days DT was calling everyone an idiot for looking at the gfs ,and then he ended up with egg on his face. I can't remember which one it was but I remember the post "I'm no longer in love with the euro".

[superjames1992]

Best way to settle it is, everybody post how much snow is in there back yard come Sunday! No model is right all the time, but they do have verification scores that's been posted many times on here. I've seen a lot of models  be consistent over the years, and sometimes it's consistently wrong!!! I rooting for a GFS coup. I want snow.

Truth.

The Euro is wrong sometimes. The GFS is wrong sometimes. On average, the Euro is wrong less than the GFS, but both blow it at times and you can't count your chickens before they hatch.

[Jonathan]

Well, if you believe in the age-old EE rule...this one's done.

 

NAM/ETA says hello Tampa Bay!

[tarheelwx]

Truth.

The Euro is wrong sometimes. The GFS is wrong sometimes. On average, the Euro is wrong less than the GFS, but both blow it at times and you can't count your chickens before they hatch.

Couldn't agree with you more.  My personal experience for our area is that the Euro wins far more time when it comes to winter storms.  Time will tell his time.

TW

[Jonathan]

Couldn't agree with you more.  My personal experience for our area is that the Euro wins far more time when it comes to winter storms.  Time will tell his time.

TW

 

And I never said it wouldn't win. It probably will. Just saying that even if you believe it to be wrong, you can't just completely toss out a model that's been absolutely rock steady versus one that's wavered every run.

[tarheelwx]

Actually from 3-4 days out, I think the Euro was closer than the GFS for last year's miss.  Sure, getting 4-8" rather than 2-3' is bad, but I believe it is closer than the "sunny" that the GFS had at 3-4 days out (If I have my storms wrong, my apologies).  And yes, I know the Euro has, is, and will be wrong at times vs. the gfs.  Its just that in the last 15 years (or more), the Euro has significantly outperformed the gfs when it comes to winter storms for NC.  Maybe it is worse throughout the rest of the year and the gfs is better, but I'm not really that concerned with the non winter events.  TW

[DTWXRISK]

 for sunday?   RPM does NOT   go out that far 

 

Heard the RPM is on board. As well as the good ole NAVGEM.

[DTWXRISK]

  REALLY   can you recall that   time? 

 

Much to do about nothing (I Think)? Maybe about 15 days or so before we have a real shot at a winter storm. If I recall right, I watched video this morning but can't hardly remember. lol. (Old Age) But I know he wasn't expecting much if anything down here..... I really hate to even say what he's said anymore, i'm tired of people mouthing about how bad he is, and he don't care about the SE blah blah blah!!! If he honks on any storm for the SE I send you a PM..............  Of course he's like any Met, He's not always right. And he will admit it when he bust!!! I say 90% of both boards I'm a member of people HATE HIM? Mention his name and you'll have 2 pages of bashing in an hour. lol   Only problem with this Sunday storm is three letters GFS. There may be some light snow in Alabama, Georgia, SC and Eastern NC..... Hope the GFS is right and we have a winter storm on our hands, But I am not the least bit excited about our chances here in the N.foothills.... Unless there's more model support that jumps on board tonight or tomorrow? 

 

From JB tonight about the Euro leaving back:

 

Now assuming the usual correction is still taking place, the message behind the Euro is that there are major troughs on the east coast every 5 days

In addition as I pointed out this morning, a big difference now with the pressure in Canada before the Saturday/Sunday system and what is lurking later as high pressure builds.

A not boring warning is in effect.. This may be replaced by an excitement watch if I see that Euro kick that southern feature out....  I watched him on a show last might, He still thinks Atlanta through the SE and up Carolina's will see several snows before spring. 

[DTWXRISK]

 I do think the  sunday  LOW     COULD  come close enough for snow into central/ eastern NC  intro se third of VA 

[tarheelwx]

  REALLY   can you recall that   time? 

 

He's admitted wrong/bust many times. Maybe not every time, but I've witnessed it many times.  TW