Jonathan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's the 18z with old data, throw it out! Just wait til the 00z gets churning with that fresh data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Noone wants to hitch their forecasting wagon to the GFS, but it's by far been the most consistent with the shortwave track and strength. The euro shifted the energy nearly 300 miles south today and looks nothing like it's own ensembles. That being said, it's still the Euro... Right so when the GFS is all consistent and acts like the Euro its wrong but when the Euro jumps all over the place run to run like the GFS its right....go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This will be a non event for NC, I love snow as much as anyone else but this precip will be supressed and it will be on to the next one. Hopefully February will be good to us. I know that we have had way more rain, precip, moisture since fall than has been forecasted. I think we all have been reminded of that atleast 50 times a day. I just feel the timing is way off based on the better models. I am looking forward to spring and getting away from the let down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's the 18z with old data, throw it out! Just wait til the 00z gets churning with that fresh data! i have no pony in this race - but i could not agree more ..... 18 z is usually only good when it is underscoring a defined trend .... imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This will be a non event for NC, I love snow as much as anyone else but this precip will be supressed and it will be on to the next one. Hopefully February will be good to us. I know that we have had way more rain, precip, moisture since fall than has been forecasted. I think we all have been reminded of that atleast 50 times a day. I just feel the timing is way off based on the better models. I am looking forward to spring and getting away from the let down! Spring will come that is guaranteed. However we hunt the elusive snow as it is not ever guaranteed rounds these parts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Heard Carl Parker of TWC fame , use one of our winter catch phrases this afternoon! He showed the shortwave for our Sun system , and he said " it was in a data sparse location in the Pacific" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Spring will come that is guaranteed. However we hunt the elusive snow as it is not ever guaranteed rounds these parts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I totally agree with you on that! I was hopefull as most but it just isn't gonna be this time. I hope we have something in the very near future. I would rather settle this with myself than get my hopes up on every decent model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can some of the experts chime in with they're opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wave is in no man's land right now. It will be back to a real system in the next day or two. Then, most of us can go back to griping about 2m temps. Mark this post, fritschy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Heard Carl Parker of TWC fame , use one of our winter catch phrases this afternoon! He showed the shortwave for our Sun system , and he said " it was in a data sparse location in the Pacific" Can we send Lewis and Clark to investigate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can some of the experts chime in with they're opinion. Brick's at dinner, sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Heard Carl Parker of TWC fame , use one of our winter catch phrases this afternoon! He showed the shortwave for our Sun system , and he said " it was in a data sparse location in the Pacific" Yeah I flipped TWC on out of curiosity around 4, it wasn't Carl Parker but Alex Wilson had the 5 day forecast going and I saw based on their map for Sunday they clearly weren't going with the GFS. At this point I think as a media outlet you have to go the safe route and say it's possible but lean Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This will be a non event for NC, I love snow as much as anyone else but this precip will be supressed and it will be on to the next one. Hopefully February will be good to us. I know that we have had way more rain, precip, moisture since fall than has been forecasted. I think we all have been reminded of that atleast 50 times a day. I just feel the timing is way off based on the better models. I am looking forward to spring and getting away from the let down! It's just Jan 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah I flipped TWC on out of curiosity around 4, it wasn't Carl Parker but Alex Wilson had the 5 day forecast going and I saw based on their map for Sunday they clearly weren't going with the GFS. At this point I think as a media outlet you have to go the safe route and say it's possible but lean Euro absolutely, still time to honk the horn if the euro were to come around. but if the gfs loses the storm tonight or tomorrow it is much easier to not have to backpedal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Right so when the GFS is all consistent and acts like the Euro its wrong but when the Euro jumps all over the place run to run like the GFS its right....go figure That's what I don't like about the Euro. It seems to just be throwing darts all over the place in hope of just hitting something. GFS might be wrong but it is more consistent. The Euro is like the guy that either strikes out or hit home runs every time at bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^ Haha what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That's what I don't like about the Euro. It seems to just be throwing darts all over the place in hope of just hitting something. GFS might be wrong but it is more consistent. The Euro is like the guy that either strikes out or hit home runs every time at bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkodTydUR0E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That sounded better in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Plenty of time left when you have two of the top models on either side of a coin, you're going to have some uncertainty...so to say that this goose is cooked, or the fat lady has sung, or that the euro will win the coup, or whatever the sayings are is premature. I believe the low precip concerns are valid, however there may be a decent amount of convective feedback with the GFS, you never know where the moisture will trend this far out when the track itself is this variable. Often times we can see storms trend wetter as we get closer well inside 80 hours, especially with the mesoscale models. IMO Euro will cave to GFS. Edit: Accidentally deleted my post (I've had a long day) but it was basically this: The Euro Op runs today aren't agreeing with their ensembles in regards to the 500mb pattern and/or s/w location, however you want to view it. The GFS and GEFS, however, agree. Take the 12z runs today for instance. The GFS s/w matches up quite flawlessly with the 500mb anomaly over Texas. 12z GEFS (ensemble) 12z GFS (op) Now look at the 12z EPS (ensemble) and the 12z Euro (op) See how the s/w is in mexico on the OP but over texas in the Ensemble? Now compare 500mb maps on both the 12z EPS and 12z GEFS, not too far apart. The reason the Euro is staying supressed is not because of overwhelming cold or because it's the crystal ball of weather, but because the s/w is staying positive too long and just keeps on going with no digging whatsoever. Because of these inconsistencies (which are replicated on early runs as well, such as the 00z suite), I prefer the GFS as of now. We should see big changes in the Euro soon, as it will take a lot to change the GFS now that it (and it's ensembles) have really nailed down a general look, IMO. Phew. Second time I've typed and uploaded those images, goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm more worried about 2m temps. Non-sticking snow doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm more worried about 2m temps. Non-sticking snow doesn't count. snow accumulated when 2m's were 42+ on 1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm more worried about 2m temps. Non-sticking snow doesn't count. snow can accumulate when 2m are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 snow can accumulate when 2m are above freezing. Rates will over come all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Rates will over come all. Agree the sounding look cold real close to the ground for a lot of us, this isnt some huge warm layer we have overcome its really shallow and its not going to be a big problem, it might start with some rain/drizzle to start but as soon as rates get anywhere near decent the snow makes it to the ground and surface temps should get on down to 32 easily. Also lets hope the typical GFS warm bias is in play, that will shave 2-3 degrees off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Agree the sounding look cold real close to the ground for a lot of us, this isnt some huge warm layer we have overcome its really shallow and its not going to be a big problem, it might start with some rain/drizzle to start but as soon as rates get anywhere near decent the snow makes it to the ground and surface temps should get on down to 32 easily. Also lets hope the typical GFS warm bias is in play, that will shave 2-3 degrees off as well. In areas where the 540 line is overhead, I would have my doubts. But if you're sitting in the mid/upper 30s and have 534s or better, I wouldn't worry until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wave is in no man's land right now. It will be back to a real system in the next day or two. Then, most of us can go back to griping about 2m temps. Mark this post, fritschy. I'm always worrying about qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 RNK will bet on the Euro: .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYSUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S..SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20.HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 From KCAE 6pm or so: (i think they are basically saying they will watch it for the northern most midlands, not the central midlands btw) THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE COMPARED TO THE GFS SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING UNTIL A BETTER CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS OCCURS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP TYPE OTHER THAN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS BUFKIT TIME SECTION FOR CLT SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 RNK will bet on the Euro: .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE. Big Frosty just wondering what J B is saying about this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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