burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS= Fantastic discussion there. As for the 18z it appears to be holding serve though there are some subtle differences to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like there slightly less play from the northern stream on the 18z...though the energy may be a tad weaker. Really no big changes yet. Out to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I could have written the RAH discussion myself. They are, like WRAL, very very very conservative. And probably right this time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18z is faster this go round still showing a low tracking along the gulf out to 87. This might get cranking good here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 @93 it's not as strong as the 12z. Still brings flakes into the area but certainly not what folks around here probably want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 rdu looking like rain thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 996 low off the coast @96 but it's too far off shore. If this becomes a trend at 00z Euro might score the coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 rdu looking like rain thru 96 Thickness and 850's would argue otherwise to me. Though it would probably wouldn't stick. Does it really count as snow if it doesn't stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 18z kind of matches with the 06z GFS and some of the prior GFS runs. Not quite as robust as 12z, for sure. There's more precip for the mountains and Western Piedmont for maybe a coating to an inch or two, depending on temps and time of day. The clown shows 1-2" N/W Piedmont and in the mountains with an area of 2-3" in the northern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 18z kind of matches with the 06z GFS and some of the prior GFS runs. Not quite as robust as 12z, for sure. There's more precip for the mountains and Western Piedmont for maybe a coating to an inch or two, depending on temps and time of day. Yea certainly not enough to derail the weenie train if you believe the GFS...of course if it goes further south and suppressed the tracks may be about to come off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can we not get the Euro to start trending toward the GFS, this is crazy, I would never have thought we would be Jan. 13 and still no snow here in the Mtns. other than a few flurries. I would have thought we would have one descent snow storm by now in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yea certainly not enough to derail the weenie train if you believe the GFS...of course if it goes further south and suppressed the tracks may be about to come off. Yeah, it's still something and considering we've seen nothing this year, most of us would take it. I'm still got my weenie self hitched at the hip to the Para GFS until those wheels fall off. Does anyone have the 12z Parallel Euro? WeatherBell doesn't have it out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah, it's still something and considering we've seen nothing this year, most of us would take it. I'm still got my weenie self hitched at the hip to the Para GFS until those wheels fall off. Does anyone have the 12z Parallel Euro? WeatherBell doesn't have it out yet. May be wrong but I'm pretty sure it runs rather irrationally since its experimental. WxBell has it when it's running...could be mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yep Robert said the Euro is sometimes slow to see these storms, sometimes 3 days out before the Euro catches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Fishel just said it is a battle between the American and European model... says it will be the ultimate coup or the ultimate embarrassment for the American model. but we already knew that. Euro forecasting pressure of 29.83" and American is 29.21. Huge difference. He showed ensembles and Euro shows 35% of members showing at least a dusting. American ensembles 57% show dusting. 6% vs. 9.5% of members for 2" or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This may bring some light snow to AL, GA and SC and leave NC looking at snow miles south. Certainly a possibility. This has really been a light snow event for Georgia for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 gfs has shown essentially the same storm and low placement for the past 7 runs. not sure why everyone is acting crazy because the 18z wasnt a super amped solution like 12z...was similar to 6z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This may bring some light snow to AL, GA and SC and leave NC looking at snow miles south. Certainly a possibility. This has really been a light snow event for Georgia for a while now.I would say just about anything is possible at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would say just about anything is possible at this point in time. Very true sir. I favor a southern slider type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 gfs has shown essentially the same storm and low placement for the past 7 runs. not sure why everyone is acting crazy because the 18z wasnt a super amped solution like 12z...was similar to 6z imo. Agreed, 12z has been the only run we've had go to that extreme so far. 18z just seemed par for the course to prior runs before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 May be wrong but I'm pretty sure it runs rather irrationally since its experimental. WxBell has it when it's running...could be mistaken though. Euro centre or whatever is delayed with the EPS. There is a message on SV about it. 00z showed up at around 1pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Very true sir. I favor a southern slider type of deal.Possibly. I would really like to see the Euro come around. I know the gfs has been consistent but it's just hard to trust it this far out. We have been here and done that to many times. I would really like the gfs to be right but cannot trust it totally at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Possibly. I would really like to see the Euro come around. I know the gfs has been consistent but it's just hard to trust it this far out. We have been here and done that to many times. I would really like the gfs to be right but cannot trust it totally at this point. The euro is probably right. I've seen it take the GFS to the woodshed more times than I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The euro is probably right. I've seen it take the GFS to the woodshed more times than I can remember.Yeah that's what I'm afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18z GEFS is similar to 12z, albeit a bit weaker with the low and a but drier. Might be noise. The 0.25-0.5" QPF like shifted about 50 miles SE. Still solid, as is, but if it trends that way more at 00z, it would not be desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'd guess the gfs will back off now for next 24hrs and somewhat cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So one run that shows it not being as strong as the 12z and everyone says it's over? Really? It still looks good on the GFS. Just probably more realistic in terms of strength. People cliff dive too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'd guess the gfs will back off now for next 24hrs and somewhat cave To be determined but historically plausible. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Only sliver of hope I see is that maybe, just maybe the Euro is playing it's bias of holding energy in the SW too long. I think that may be the case here, but I don't think it's so much that we end up with a full phase. I think we end up with some light precipitation ala the ensembles. Not sold on it being snow though for South of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Noone wants to hitch their forecasting wagon to the GFS, but it's by far been the most consistent with the shortwave track and strength. The euro shifted the energy nearly 300 miles south today and looks nothing like it's own ensembles. That being said, it's still the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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