calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice image from Brad P.'s Twitter feed comparing the differences at 500 mb for the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice image from Brad P.'s Twitter feed comparing the differences at 500 mb for the storm: Well developed low near(on) NC/SC coast per GFS vs the Euro being empty. What a crazy looking difference within 4 days or so. Something's gotta give on one of these two models soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hr 48 on the 18z NAM seems to be dropping the energy down a tad faster and the cold air either slower or further north. Lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice image from Brad P.'s Twitter feed comparing the differences at 500 mb for the storm: Weather channel showing both model runs for the southeast for the weekend and how far apart they are, and they are going with euro. High and dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Through 60 hours, the NAM looks closer to the GFS than the EURO, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Through 60 hours, the NAM looks closer to the GFS than the EURO, FWIW. Hr 66 the energy is stronger and further east. Trough looks a little sharper and less postive. The PV looks a bit weaker and further west. I think it might be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hr 66 the energy is stronger and further east. Trough looks a little sharper and less postive. The PV looks a bit weaker and further west. I think it might be better than 12z. It certainly aint reflecting it at the surface...too positive but it also isn't going to Cuba either. It's out to 81 on my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nam is closer to the gfs than euro but it's the long range nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 It certainly aint reflecting it at the surface...too positive but it also isn't going to Cuba either. It's out to 81 on my maps. Yeah. It's not great, but it looks like an improvement over the 12z. I can't compare it to the other models because my brain is on map overload! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It certainly aint reflecting it at the surface...too positive but it also isn't going to Cuba either. It's out to 81 on my maps. Was that a phase at hour 81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM looks like its trying to phase at 84 (not sure why were even discussing). Trough looks to be going negative tilt. I would guess a ~1000ish SLP would pop near ORF if we were to extrapolate. Which I just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM looks like its trying to phase at 84 (not sure why were even discussing). Trough looks to be going negative tilt. I would guess a ~1000ish SLP would pop near ORF if we were to extrapolate. Which I just did.The irony of your username and your post is worth pointing out. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The irony of your username and your post is worth pointing out. Haha+ 1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The irony of your username and your post is worth pointing out. Haha Good one Sounds like the 12z GFS Para is a tad east of the GFS Op, but looks like a strong system - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47563-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/?p=3853718 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hour 78 on 18Z NAM Hour 81 on 18Z NAM, phase perhaps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Para looks to be another good run. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&group=Model%20Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113%2012%20UTC&area=namer&cycle=12&fhr=075¶m=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&ps=area&size=medium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GFS, GFS ensembles, UKMET, CMC, and even a good number of the Euro ensembles were all consistent on bringing Joaquin into NC/VA at this range. Only the operational Euro held steady on an out-to-sea solution, and it won. And that's just a recent, stark example -- the Euro isn't called the king for nothing. When in doubt in the medium-range, go with the Euro. meh..that really is irrelevant and has no bearing on whether the euro is right or not this time. If it was the Euro that was showing the snowy, northern solution and the GFS was the one supressed south, everyone would be discounting the GFS right now and getting their sleds out, calling the Euro king. These forums during the winter season are excellent examples of confirmation bias. Even Robert replied to a FB comment saying how the Euro didn't see a storm during the Thanksgiving weekend 3 years ago and using that as an example of how the Euro can be wrong, ignoring the continuous years of the Euro being right 75-80% of the time in this range, nevermind it's not even nearly the same synoptic set up(one is in late November, the other in the middle of January). It's hard to get excited about a threat when the Euro shows such a suppressed solution. Euro must start trending north tonight or tomorrow afternoon or I'd say it's game over. This is true but that's the case with every system. Everyone is going to always latch on to the model that gives them them most and dismiss the one that doesn't. That said, imo the reputation of the euro is often over hyped quite a bit. That's not to say the gfs is better or isn't terrible at times, or the euro isn't overall better because i think the euro statistically is still better but the idea that it's always right or one should always follow the euro is hogwash. There have been countless times the euro has been wrong..including with quite a few of the last several winter storms here inside of several days. The main reason the euro has this reputation for always being right besides human exaggeration is because the gfs is ran 4 times per day while euro has the benefit of only being ran twice per day and after the latest real time 12z and 0z observational soundings which naturally results in less run to run variability. Indeed in this case, although i think the gfs is overly amped/too strong...the euro in all likelyhood is equally wrong. What's funny to me is even if the gfs ends up being more right than the euro, in the future the euro's trip to cuba will be completely forgotten..because for some reason the gfs busts are remembered a lot more than the euro's busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Was that a phase at hour 81? I don't see a phase...it just looked like the tail on the back end was a little bit of a mess. It is close with that northern energy...but then again it's the NAM at 84 hours. It's always like thinking you hit the jackpot because the first number matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z para was a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z para was a weenie run. Just saw that...It would make many on here happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 RAH --- Next. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW UPSTREAM...NORTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH A POWERBALL VORTEX FORECAST TOPIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES THISWEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...WITHPHASING OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS EARLY ASFRI OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND FURTHER PHASING WITH THE POWERBALLVORTEX FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE PHASED...FULL-LATITUDE ANDNEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PIVOT UP THE EAST COAST - A SUCCESSION OFEVENTS THAT ALONE HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. INADDITION...EVEN IN THAT "BEST CASE" SOLUTION FOR SNOW LOVERS...THELACK OF -OR MORE APPROPRIATELY THE POORLY-PLACED/SLOW ARRIVING- COLDSURFACE HIGH WOULD REQUIRE SAID PERFECT PHASING AND RAPIDLYDEEPENING OF A CYCLONE TO OVERCOME THE POSITIONING OF THE INCOMINGARCTIC HIGH FROM THE PLAINS STATES. IN CONTRAST TO THE STEADY GFS SOLUTIONS...THE OP ECMWF (MOST OF THEEC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)...AND THE OP CANADIAN...HAVE REMAINEDCONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES AND SHOW NO INITIAL PHASING OVER THEGREAT BASIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY VERY LITTLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OUTOF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A FLAT/SUPPRESSED WEAK LOWTRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OUT TO SEA IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATIONIN CENTRAL NC (AND ANYWHERE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST/MIDDLEATLANTIC) APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME...AND WOULD REQUIRE THENEAR PERFECT INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES IN DIFFERENT STREAMS ANDDATA-SPARSE REGIONS. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A VERY COLD ANDDRY AIR MASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUN-EARLY SUNNIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY TO MID NEXTWEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Indeed in this case, although i think the gfs is overly amped/too strong...the euro in all likelyhood is equally wrong. What's funny to me is even if the gfs ends up being more right than the euro, in the future the euro's trip to cuba will be completely forgotten..because for some reason the gfs busts are remembered a lot more than the euro's busts. Seems to me the reason is because the GFS tends to really amp up QPF with storms in the LR. This leads to dreams of 3 foot snow drifts. I kind of feel like even with strong storms the Euro is more grounded in reality with regards to QPF. I think that's probably the biggest reason. The big factor here it seems is that the Euro wants to bring in REALLY cold air. It wanted to do that last week. Had it verified I would probably lean towards the Euro but given just last week it fell more towards the GFS solution I'm not sure it can be taken too seriously right now for that reason alone since it plays a big factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Para screams deep south Winter storm. Stupid 2meters. 1000-500 thickness good, 850s good. man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Para screams deep south Winter storm. Stupid 2meters. 1000-500 thickness good, 850s good. man. A smidge south of the op run!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A smidge south of the op run!? map wise, the surface freezing temps get hung up in the mountains or so... and don't want to come in to SC. from what I can tell, the Low doesn't track over SC. if i could see raw numbers, I could see you guys in the mid-upper 30s and rain while we down here in the midlands sit around 40f and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 map wise, the surface freezing temps get hung up in the mountains or so... and don't want to come in to SC. from what I can tell, the Low doesn't track over SC. if i could see raw numbers, I could see you guys in the mid-upper 30s and rain while we down here in the midlands sit around 40f and rainIf there even is a storm, it's never good to have a race between the moisture and the cold, because the cold loses 99.9 times out of 100, especially here in the upstate! Wish cold was well established Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS parallel really blowing it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURS......ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SAT......DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEANCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHE 12Z CMC IS ON ITS OWN REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF AN UPPERTROUGH TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURS...WHICH IMPACTSTHE ORIENTATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION.OVERALL...THE CMC APPEARS TOO SLOW. THE 12Z NAM TENDS TO BE A BITWEAKER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE ENERGY AS IT TRAVERSESTHE INTERIOR ON FRI AND BEGINS DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE ALLAGREES IN TAKING THE ENERGY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINSON SAT...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED. THE AMPLIFICATION OFTHIS ENERGY SHOULD FOSTER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVERTHE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT. THE 12Z NAM/12Z CMC AND 12ZECMWF ARE LESS-DEFINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...VERSUSTHE 12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET WHICH HAVE STRONGER LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. CONFIDENCE ISHIGHLY LIMITED...AND WILL PREFER TO COMPROMISE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLEMEANS LED BY THE GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN WHICH AT LEAST HAVE ALOW CENTER THAT TENDS TO SPLIT THE WEAKER AND STRONGER MODEL CAMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see the Para engaged the ole South Carolina snow shield. Duke keeps it up this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 For not going with it, Carl Parker has showed the GFS runs about 4 times in 30 min I watched and he did show the Euro and said it was the best, like all on here say, but he seemed infatuated with what it was showing and said it would be PLENTY cold enough from ATL and North to get snow, but they are going with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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